2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報

2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/01 00:01
2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
★麻煩各位在本欄貼新聞之前，請先瀏覽一次，若有網友已貼相同的新聞，請勿重覆張貼而佔去本欄版面。此外於貼上新聞剪報時，麻煩請一併附上新聞剪報網址。若無法查出新聞原址，煩請於新聞正文之前加註：『無法提供新聞來源；僅供參考，請各位網友注意！！』，敬請合作！謝謝★ ★本欄只接受新聞剪報，恕不接受任何討論及網友反應事項，謝謝各位合作！★

NO:86_1

VOR 　於　2003/02/11 15:38
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://europe.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/02/10/china.pla/ China ramps up missile capability Staff and wires Monday, February 10, 2003 Posted: 0942 GMT

NO:86_2

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/11 22:13
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://news.yam.com/cna/china/news/200302/200302110165.html 中國大陸首次派出女軍人參加聯合國維和行動（中央社台北十一日電）據中國大陸國防部維和辦公室指出，中國大陸即將赴剛果執行維和任務的醫療隊中將有十三名女軍人。這是中國大陸首次派出女軍人參加聯合國維和行動。新華社報導，這些女軍人是來自中共瀋陽軍區某部醫院的軍醫和護士。他們將加入共四十三人組成的醫療隊，和某工兵部隊一百七十五名官兵一同赴剛果。報導說，自一九九０年首次參加聯合國維和行動以來，中共軍隊先後向聯合國十個維和任務區派出一千四百五十人參與維和行動，其中包括六百五十名軍事觀察員、軍事聯絡員、軍事顧問、參謀軍官和八百多名工程官兵。

NO:86_3

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/13 00:03
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://news.yam.com/cna/international/news/200302/200302120459.html 美中情局長預期中國將持續對台部署軍力（中央社記者陳正杰華盛頓十二日專電）美國中央情報局局長泰內特表示，在兩岸問題上，中國持續增強軍力是美國「最大的關切」，他並且預期中國在這方面的作為在今年將會持續。泰內特在十一日對參院情報特別委員會提出的書面證詞中說：「(中國軍事)單位訓練和武器整合在去年達到新的高點，而且全部的焦點，都是為達成有關台灣的任務和提高任何外力介入中國在區域行動的成本。」他接著說：「我們預期(這個趨勢)在未來一年不會減緩。」泰內特說，台灣是美中關係「最一觸即發的問題」；他說，目前台海情勢似乎相對平穩，但近來的歷史顯示，由於雙方的觀感和評估不斷變化，這個情況可以很快改變。他說，北京領導人似乎相信兩岸的趨勢朝有利於大陸的方向發展，但他們對台灣的民族主義情緒及美國對台軍售及合作存有疑慮。至於陳水扁總統，泰內特說，陳總統可能因國內政治和經濟問題及北京對台的笑臉攻勢感到受限；隨著明年總統大選逐漸接近，他認為陳總統可能再次強調台灣分離的地位並擴展台灣的國際外交活動。

NO:86_4

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/13 09:14
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://news.yam.com/cna/international/news/200302/200302130013.html 沈大偉指中國發展巡弋飛彈將對台構成威脅 (中央社記者陳正杰華盛頓十二日專電)美國著名中國問題專家沈大偉今天表示，中國人民解放軍目前沒有建造航空母艦武力的計畫，但他們發展可用於攻擊地面目標的巡弋飛彈將提供對台灣進行精準攻擊的能力，對台灣是較大的威脅。沈大偉在華府智庫尼克森中心的一場座談會上並說，以解放軍目前現代化的腳步，解放軍將在五年之內取得對台灣各方面的軍事優勢。特別是可用於攻擊地面目標的巡弋飛彈，沈大偉說，這種武器無論台灣或是美國都無法防禦。但另一方面，他也指出，解放軍軍力平均落後當前頂尖軍事國家約二十年，而且由於美歐國家軍事科技的進展，這個差距未來不會逐漸縮小，反而會逐漸擴大。尼克森中心今天為沈大偉的新作「中國軍事現代化：進展、問題和前景」舉辦發表會。這是十五年來第一部對解放軍各層面做整體研究的著作。針對中國是否可能發展航空母艦武力的問題，沈大偉說，對中國而言，擁有航空母艦跟送太空人登陸一樣，主要是地位的考量，而不是出於實際需要，特別是因為印度和泰國都擁有航空母艦，北京因此覺得也有此需要。但他說，有航空母艦，就要有構成戰鬥群所需的其他艦艇，這將對解放軍現代化形成預算排擠效應，而中國決定不走這條路。中國向澳大利亞和前蘇聯共購買三艘除役的航空母艦，但澳洲的「墨爾本號」已當廢鐵拆解，俄國的「明斯克號」在澳門當賭場，烏克蘭的「瓦雅格號」將改為海上遊樂場。另外，沈大偉說，中國藉拆解外購武器發展生產能力的紀錄並不好。他在新書裡說，中國最終將擁有航空母艦，但將是向外國直接購買。他總結新書的主要論點指出，中國目前軍力對美國在亞太利益和美國本身並不構成威脅，美國應在不助長解放軍武力投射能力的條件下加強雙邊軍事交流，同時保持一九八九年以來不對中國出口軍品的制裁。他並說，對於中國軍事的現代化，美國應該加以瞭解、設法適應、避免助長這個過程，並建立良好的整體雙邊關係，以緩和中國軍力提升帶來的衝擊。

NO:86_5

VOR 　於　2003/02/13 14:48
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/afp/defense/030211091905.jlzv0xaz.html China denies developing or firing weapons to counter US missile defenses

NO:86_6

VOR 　於　2003/02/13 15:37
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
Janes Intelligence Review February 1, 2003 Pg. 10 Chinas Armed Forces Set To Undergo Face-Lift New military leaders and a new defence white paper emphasise the Peoples Liberation Armys mission to modernise, writes John Hill. The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) returned to political favour at the 16th National Party Congress (NPC) in November 2002 when President Jiang Zemin announced that Deng Xiaopings fourth modernisation - that of the military - will be made a priority. Emphasising that China requires an army with fewer, better troops, Jiang said that: The army must implement the military strategic principle of active defence and raise its defence capabilities and combat effectiveness under high-tech conditions. The PLA has spent the past several years in the cold as a result of the leaderships dissatisfaction with the militarys handling of the US EP-3 spy plane incident, and its missile rattling during the Taiwan presidential elections in 1996, a tactic that backfired by turning the electorate towards a pro-Taiwan independence candidate. The appointment of professional soldiers to key positions and the promise of funding increases suggest that the leadership is prepared to re-emphasise the task of military reform. Chinas military is unusual in that its existence predates the formation of the state; the PLA was founded in 1927, more than 20 years before Mao declared the Peoples Republic on the Tiananmen rostrum in 1949. As such, the PLA is in a sense the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), controlled by the partys Central Military Commission (CMC) rather than the ministry of defence, and has a political as well as a military role. Therefore, a major party event such as the NPC is by definition a major event for the PLA. The November congress elected a new Central Military Commission (CMC), and in the weeks that followed, it appointed new personnel to key positions in the PLA and published a new defence white paper. The new leadership One of the most controversial outcomes of the congresss deliberations was the decision to allow Jiang to retain his position as the chairman of the CMC, although he is stepping down as CCP general secretary. Technically, at 76, Jiang is too old to be reappointed, and furthermore, by implication, having such a dominant figure in the CMC chair who is not the party leader may risk undermining the traditional military subservience to the party. However, Jiang is following the model set by Deng Xiaoping who stayed on for two years after stepping down from the party leadership. It may be that Jiang, by emulating Deng, is attempting to consolidate his position as one of Chinas great leaders, or it may be that he hopes to carry on influencing events in China much as Deng did. Jiang was the first Chinese leader to have no military experience; nevertheless, his standing with the PLA is good, and 64 of the 81 men appointed to the rank of general since such ranks were re-established in 1988 owe their promotion to him. Jiang also wooed the military with significant budget increases, and his superiority to Hu Jintao, (now CMC vice-chairman, and similarly lacking in direct military experience) will make him a continuing powerful voice in military affairs. Membership of the CMC is dependent on membership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. The PLA holds 40 seats on the 198-seat Central Committee. The CMC, the top military body, has been reduced from 11 to eight members. Under Jiang and Hu come the PLAs representatives. At the November congress, existing CMC members generals Guo Boxiong and Cao Gangchuan were promoted to the two remaining vacant positions of vice chairman, following the departure of Defence Minister General Chi Haotian and General Zhang Wannian, both of whom were well into their seventies. This represents the end of the generation that began its military career in the revolution, and reflects the switch in the politburo (on which both men also occupy seats) to the leadership of the so-called fourth generation - so-called because in terms of policy there is no break. All the appointees have held high office in the outgoing administration. However, as this is indeed a post-revolutionary generation, there is the possibility of a shift in attitude and emphasis, as well as in military approaches. The old guard learned its trade when what is sometimes referred to as human wave tactics of the Korean war were in the ascendant. Zhang Wannian had an impressive military career from revolutionary times on, serving as a military adviser in Vietnam in the 1960s and returning there in the disastrous Vietnam war of 1978 to lead his division to one of the PLAs few military successes. Filling his formidable shoes as the senior war-fighting PLA figure on the CMC will be General Guo Boxiong. A former commander of the Lanzhou military district, which covers the sensitive Xinjiang province, General Guo, 59, will be responsible for the running of the CMC. A relatively young man, he has been promoted ahead of more senior figures through Jiangs intervention. He is credited with introducing an imaginary blue army for the PLA to fight in more realistic exercises designed to expose PLA weaknesses. His most recent job was as the deputy to the chief of general staff. In addition to his position on the CMC, General Cao, 67, is expected to take over the largely ceremonial office of defence minister at the NPC in March. He is a technocrat with a career in ordnance and procurement rather than direct military command, which some suggest may give him problems in dealing with the heads of the military districts. He used to head the General Armaments Department and is responsible for the recent substantial purchases of modern weapons from Russia, a country he studied in. He is thought to have special expertise in missiles. He is an appropriate choice for replacement of the cosmopolitan Chi Haotian, having travelled, and having a reputation for being similarly easy to deal with. His promotion is expected to accelerate the process of modernisation through the introduction of high technology. The other four members of the new CMC are General Xu Caihou, 59, and three newcomers, generals Liang Guangli, 61, Li Jinai, 60, and Liao Xilong, 62. They were also swiftly appointed to the top positions in the four departments of the General Headquarters of the PLA. General Xu, who has risen through the political wing of the PLA will now head the General Political Department. The new head of the Department of General Staff is more of a soldiers soldier: General Liang was commander of the important Nanjing military region (the command that would be responsible for any military engagement with Taiwan), and before that commanded the Shenyang military region in the northeast. General Li will now head the General Armaments Department where he had been political commissar. The final seat is taken by General Liao, who had been commander of the western Chengdu military region, which includes Tibet. He will now head the General Logistics Department. The new make-up of the CMC is not thought to be particularly hardline, or hawkish on issues like Taiwan, but will nevertheless emphasise the building-up and modernisation of the PLA. In early August 2002, during a military exercise in Shanghai, General Liang Guangli said: Taiwan is the sacred territory of the motherland. Taiwanese independence means war. While bellicose-sounding, this is actually the official position on the Taiwan situation. One specific sign of moderation is that General Xiong Guangkai remains as deputy chief of general staff under its new chief Liang Guangli. Xiong, whose career was in intelligence, is a controversial figure who made veiled threats to attack Los Angeles with nuclear weapons during the 1996 Taiwan missile crisis. He was also implicated in attempts to fund the Clinton presidential campaign in the same year. He is not by any means being sidelined, however, having been put in charge of the recently warmed-up military relationship with the USA. The new defence white paper Issued on 10 December, this is the fourth white paper on Chinas defence posture since the government began to publish its policies in 1995. The paper is a useful indicator of the broad sweep of Beijings military concerns, which are equally focussed on internal and external threats: to conduct operations of defence, and, if necessary, to maintain social order in accordance with the law, as it states. The goals and tasks of Chinese defence policy as described by the paper can largely be summed up in terms of the basics of Chinese insecurity, the three Ts: Taiwan, Tibet and Tiananmen - or, more generally, stopping separation; realising complete reunification of the motherland; and stopping armed subversion and safeguarding social stability by preventing rioting and the subverting of state power - a fear nowadays directed as much at the restless urban and rural poor as at ethnic minorities or students - though recent student protests in Hefei provoked sufficient concern in Beijing to cause the direct intervention of a senior politburo figure to get the students demands attended to, in a reflection of insecurity regarding rapidly rising levels of graduate unemployment. The white paper continues to emphasise military modernisation, as well as a strategy of active defence. The last few years have seen progress on this road due to a rapid rise in spending (from 121bn Yuan in 2000 to 169bn Yuan in 2002, a still low 1.5% of GDP, although Western analysts consider the figures to be understated). The white paper attributes the rise partly to salary increases and improved conditions for PLA personnel, partly to the demands of the international war on terror, and partly to improved equipment and spending on high technology. Chinas defence industry is spread among 11 major industrial groups. Modernisation of the industry is predicated on restructuring it to introduce competition between a batch of internationally competitive conglomerates... operating independently and responsible for their own profits or losses. The PLA already contracts out in that it employs civilian services to carry out a range of activities for the General Logistics Department, and this process of socialisation of logistical support in non-combat units will continue. Procurement decisions will also follow a more Western model of public bidding and tendering. According to a report in The Peoples Daily on 9 January 2003, the Chinese defence industry broke even in 2001 after eight years in the red. The industry is urged to leapfrog in technological advances: the idea is that China can, with one bound, catch up with the West rather than be forced to labour through the intermediate stages. There is little detail of what specific systems this might apply to, and what detail there is applies to civilian applications of military technologies, notably the Long March rocket which has launched 27 foreign satellites, and intends to put a manned craft into space in 2003. This will be seen as evidence of Chinese catch-up or, indeed, of overtaking all but the USA and Russia and, if successful, there will be a major national celebration of its achievement. The section on armed forces-building gives priority to training, a vital issue that is often lost in the emphasis in Western reporting on new weapons systems, although again detail is lacking, other than general reference to the use of high technology and the citing of large-scale (and well-reported) exercises held in summer 2001 to test joint-operations ability with respect to Taiwan in the Nanjing and Guangzhou military districts. Experts have stressed to JIR that while the PLA is in the process of seriously developing its amphibious warfare capacity, such exercises that periodically raise tensions across the straits are not exercises in the Western sense of the word, designed to test capacities, reveal shortcomings and so on, but are rather more in the way of stereotyped demonstrations. While reflecting an ambition to achieve joint operations they are not as yet properly joint. Jean-Pierre Cabestan of the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China in Hong Kong, and an expert on the PLA and the Taiwan issue, plays down the efficacy of the PLA, particularly with regard to what most see as the main task for which it is being prepared: the possibility of a forced reunification of Taiwan with the motherland. The key element of the Chinese threat to Taiwan lies in its build-up of conventionally armed ballistic missiles across the straits in Fujien. Estimates of the number in place vary, but 300 is at the lower end of the range. The possibility of surgical (acupuncture) strikes by these weapons has been mooted, the goal being to gradually wear down the Taiwanese infrastructure to the point that they would capitulate before heavy destruction or casualties took place or a real battle for the island was fought. Cabestan suggests that this exaggerates the accuracy of the current systems, and that in reality a blitzkrieg-style attack would as yet be the only effective option in military terms. According to Cabestans analysis, the whole Chinese military stance towards Taiwan is old- fashioned diplomacy, the intent being to intimidate rather than actually invade. Despite key arms acquisitions, the PLA remains unable to project its power effectively over the sea, and the much-heralded arms build-up across the straits is of psychological force only, and will remain so for some time to come. Under National Defence Building is a subsection on participating in and supporting the development of the western region, an area usually (though not specifically described here) considered to mean the Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang autonomous regions. In the western region, the PLA and the Peoples Armed Police between them have more than 1.5m troops and 450,000 motor vehicles and machines. Much of the white papers detail concerns development work - tree-planting, infrastructure-building, helping the poor and needy, and so on, although it also states that the army has opened five military airports, more than 200 military rail lines, 30 oil pipelines, 70 communication lines. The army has huge compounds in Xinjiang, where the military is effectively colonising the territory, an interpretation backed up by the white paper, which describes how the armed forces have encouraged or persuaded demobilised soldiers from densely populated areas to settle in the west. The paper also deals with the war on terrorism, stressing Chinas support for international co-operation, while also emphasising the need to act through the UN on the basis of conclusive evidence, clear targets and the norms of international law. It also suggests the need to address root causes of terrorism such as the north-south gap, as well as its symptoms. This concern is also reflected in the section on disarmament, which stresses Chinas opposition to the proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery, while also holding that efforts of non-proliferation should not be confined to non-proliferation itself and should also include the identification and resolution of its root causes. Predictably, the document also stresses Chinas opposition to Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) especially to any country which provides Taiwan with TMD assistance in any form. Procurement of new systems Some Western analysts have interpreted Chinas recent substantial acquisition of Russian equipment to achieve its modernisation goal as a sign of weakness. However, for every major Russian system purchased there is a comparable Chinese-developed system in train, in what can be seen as a dual-track approach to acquiring modern and balanced forces. An expert observer on the Russian trade with China told JIR that this dependence on Russia was a strictly temporary phenomenon, and that China would achieve its goal of independence in arms production. For example, the Russian Sovremenny destroyer, of which two have been delivered with another two improved versions (type 956ME) on order, has added a powerful new dimension to the Navy of the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLAN) capability with its 160km range 3M-80E (SS-N-22 Sunburn) anti-ship missiles. But the navy is also in the process of acquiring the 6,000 ton 052B destroyer, a domestic design. The PLAN operates and is acquiring further Kilo class submarines from Russia, but is continuing with the upgrade of its own Song conventional type, as well as a new SSBN, the 094. Likewise, in terms of combat aircraft, emphasis in the West has been given to the Russian heavy fighters, the Sukhoi SU-27/30 family, which gave the Air Force of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLAAF) its first really competitive type for many years. Twenty-eight SU-27s Flanker have been delivered including trainers, as well as 38 Sukhoi SU-33s Flanker D; delivery of a second batch of 38 is in process, and a third order of 38 anti-ship variants just announced. The Chinese have also the right to build 200 aircraft in Shenyang under licence. Difficulties had been reported in quality control, but the most recent reports attributed to Russian technicians suggest factory facilities are now superior to those in Russia. However, this Russian aircraft is being rapidly followed by the Chengdu-produced CAC J-10, a largely domestic development, though probably benefiting from Israeli experience on the cancelled Lavi. It has recently been reported that 10 are already in service in the Nanjing military district. An agile canard-delta design, with a capable Russian-sourced radar capable of multitracking, it gives every indication of being an effective addition to Chinas armoury. In addition, a lightweight combat aircraft, the CATIC FC-1 Super-7, apparently with input from the cancelled Mikoyan MiG-33 programme, has been developed at Chengdu in conjunction with Pakistan, although the PLA has not yet committed to it. This is an F-16 Fighting Falcon equivalent, the low cost of which raises the possibility of substantial export interest. There has also been a substantial redevelopment of an older type in Xian to produce the XAC JH-7A strike aircraft, powered by two Rolls-Royce Spey engines produced under license in China. The three aircraft industry groups involved: Shenyang, Chengdu and Xian are all part of China Aviation Industry Corporation-1. Each type may be capable of being produced at a rate of 30-50 per year to give the PLAAF a balanced range of types able to operate at high, medium and low altitude, at close to long ranges, in numbers able to match Taiwans F-16s and Mirages by 2005/6. The JH-7A even gives China an effective purely offensive weapon. A new cruise missile, the C-803 (YJ-83), was fired from a JH-7A in November that surprised US watchers with a range of 155m - twice what was expected, putting the firing aircraft well out of range of the US Navys newest surface-to-air missiles. As regards more powerful strike aircraft, the deputy director of the Centre for Strategic and Technological Analysis, Konstantin Makiyenko, was quoted by ITAR-TASS news agency on 2 January suggesting that, although prospects were currently poor, in the medium term, in the context of Taiwans increasing military strength: Chinese interest is being stimulated, for instance, in such a powerful and expensive aviation system as the [Tupolev] Tu-22M-3 [Backfire]. Close air-support may remain a PLAAF weakness, however. In terms of the demand for fewer, better troops, current PLA doctrine is following the US model, with divisions being split into brigades, which will form the main operational unit. Also like the USA, the army is acquiring lighter and more easily deployable wheeled armoured vehicles, with China North Industries Corp developing a range of such vehicles including a version armed with a 120mm gun, somewhat on the pattern of the Italian Centauro VBC armoured personnel carrier. Weighing 20-30 tons these vehicles have the advantage of being transportable by aircraft such as the Ilyushin Il-76 operated by China. Dr John Hill is a freelance writer specialising in Asian security.

NO:86_7

VOR 　於　2003/02/13 15:57
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://jczs.sina.com.cn/2003-02-09/106773.html 當打贏先鋒——記空軍航空兵某團團長常丁求 http://jczs.sina.com.cn 2003年2月9日 19:01 光明日報不久前，一場模擬高技術條件下的現代空戰在西北某空軍基地上空拉開了帷幕。突然，“紅軍”指揮所警報驟響。緊接著，數架戰鷹如离弦之箭，直刺蒼穹。領飛的團長常丁求与戰友組成的“紅軍”在預定空域飛速擺開陣勢。几秒鐘后，眼看“紅”、“藍”兩軍就要狹路相逢，一架“紅軍”戰机出人意料地掉頭“逃竄”，“藍軍”緊追不舍，沒料到落進“紅軍”圈套。常團長駕机從“藍軍”側翼直插上來，將目標牢牢鎖在瞄准鏡光環內，按下導彈發射按鈕，一舉擊落敵机。演練落下帷幕，這支部隊以优异的戰績凱旋。肩負使命“謀打贏” 兩年前，常丁求出任某團團長。上任之初，他便將“打贏”作為自己的重要使命。 “平顯”是國產某新型殲擊机先進的電子設備，能同時顯示高度、速度和航向等15种飛行參數，而且比傳統的儀表刻度顯示精确度提高一大截。剛開始，由于“平顯 ”位于座艙正前方，屏幕上各种數字不停在閃爍變化，有些飛行員覺得干擾視線，就干脆把它關掉。為扭轉對新裝備的不适應感，常丁求要求每個課目必須按照平顯數据來執行，飛行參數判讀必須依据平顯數据來評分。僅几個月時間，每個飛行員都會使用“平顯” ，空中動作也更加精确規范。“平顯”不僅提高了飛行的准确度，更重要的是它与火控系統實現交聯，大幅提高某新型殲擊机作戰效能。 2001年底，總部在這個團組織考核，考核當天，云遮霧鎖，天气复雜，能見度不足3公里。考核還進不進行？常丁求果斷拍板：戰爭真要打起來，敵人可不管天好天坏。經考核組同意，常丁求第一個帶四机穿云破霧考戰法，他的气魄和膽識，博得考核組領導的連聲稱贊。這次，常丁求領軍摘走了“軍事訓練一級單位”的桂冠。博學強兵領雄師現代戰爭要求指揮員有寬泛的知識面。常丁求不僅精通軍事指揮，還諳熟航理知識、心理知識和計算机知識。 2002年10月份，各部隊高手齊聚北京，參加空軍航空理論教學競賽。常丁求面對強手，向在座的專家全面分析了“ 地靶訓練”飛机俯沖中抬頭力矩對瞄准點的影響，并提出了提高命中率的方法和措施。由于角度獨到，分析精辟，受到評委們的一致好評，毫無爭議地奪得第一名。常丁求還是一位小有名气的“飛行心理專家”。在他看來，飛行員心理素質与思想素質、技戰術水平一樣都是戰斗力的重要組成部分。為提高飛行員的心理素質，他將飛行心理學向訓練、實踐拓展，向未來戰場延伸。在他的倡導下，團里引進了一套心理測試軟件，可以在飛行前對飛行員進行有效的心理測評。一次，一架飛机著陸滑跑時，突然輪胎爆破，他現場調閱飛參，排除了飛行員人為因素。在仔細觀察飛行員的情緒后，他果斷決定：繼續飛！結果高標准地完成了當天的飛行計划。瞄准未來求創新常丁求上任時，團里飛行骨干技戰術水平參差不齊，他為此十分焦慮。2001年初，4名新飛行員剛完成改裝任務，常丁求就給他們制定了一整套四机帶隊長机、四种气象教員培養計划。這時，有人給他提醒：2001年2名教員的培養計划都沒有完成，2002年一下培養這么多，能行嗎？“時間不等人啊，早一點培養，就早一天形成戰斗力，打贏就多一份胜數。”在他的周密計划、精心安排下，僅3個多月時間，這4名四机帶隊長机、四种气象教員就全部合格。常丁求常常提醒自己和部屬：今天在提高素質上缺乏“推力”，明天在空戰中就會成為敵人的“靶机”。為加速人才培養力度，他給每個大隊配齊了學習用品，帶頭編寫了《X型飛机飛行教范》、《戰法理論題庫》和《指揮員手冊》等材料。團里成立了航理、戰法、飛參、心理品質等多個課題研究小組，學習鑽研的氛圍在這個團相當濃厚。現在，該團“指教長”隊伍占到了飛行人員總數的三分之二以上，飛行員達到了“四能兩會”：高難課目能飛，重大任務能上，高水平論文能寫，高科技知識能講；會使用外語和會操作電腦。(郭凱、宋方、胡鵬飛)

NO:86_8

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/13 16:07
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
NO:6_27 SK2 　於　2003/02/09 22:35 Re:2003 年 1 月解放軍軍動態剪報 China tests missile designed to foil US defences: report TOKYO, Feb 9 (AFP) - 09:39 GMT - China has successfully test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile equipped with multiple warheads to confound missile defences being developed by the United States, according to a Japanese daily. China launched the Dongeng-21 missile, believed to carry multiple re-entry vehicle warheads, from a military base in northeastern Shanxi Province in mid-December, Yomiuri reported at the weekend, quoting unnamed sources in Beijing. It was believed to the first successful test launch of a missile with multiple warheads for China, the report added. The missile test was seen as a significant breakthrough as the technology was primarily targeted at breaking through missile defences being developed in the United States. China last tested the Dongeng-21 missile, which is believed capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads up to a range of 1,800 kilometres, in July last year. A 1997 report issued by the US Air Force Air Intelligence Centre estimated some 50 of the missiles had been deployed at bases around China, including those close to the North Korean and Vietnamese borders. US officials also estimate China has deployed up to 400 ballistic missiles which could strike Taiwan within eight minutes. Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan if it declares independence after their split in 1949 at the end of a civil war. http://www.defense-aerospace.com/afp/defense/030209093958.rafd1z52.html

NO:86_10

Luke-Skywalker 　於　2003/02/14 20:03
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://news.yam.com/cna/international/news/200302/200302140225.html 美報稱俄國最近再運交一批戰機給中國大陸（中央社記者陳正杰華盛頓十四日專電）華盛頓時報今天引述美國情報官員的話報導說，俄羅斯在過去一個月當中，已再運交一批先進蘇剴三十ＭＫＫ戰鬥轟炸機給中國，未來並將再繼續提供。報導說，俄國軍火出口一向是公開進行，但在北京要求下，俄國答應在轉移重要武器系統給中國時以保密方式進行。報導引述未具名情報官員的話說，有跡象顯示，俄國計劃提供新型而且性能優良的ＡＳ─１７ｘ空對地飛彈，做為對中國出口蘇剴三十ＭＭＫ交易的一部份。報導說，蘇剴三十ＭＭＫ是中國軍力擴充行動能見度最高的環節之一。報導並說，台海兩岸軍力平衡在中國人民解放軍積極擴充軍力的情況下，逐漸由大陸取得上風。報導未提到俄國提供戰機的數目，僅說已經運交給中國或未來將運交的俄製武器包括蘇剴二十七型戰機、Ａ─５０空中早期預警暨管制飛機、Ｍｉ─１７直升機、ＡＡ─１２空對空飛彈、現代級驅逐艦、ＳＡ─１０ＳＡ─１５地對空飛彈等。

NO:86_12

VOR 　於　2003/02/15 17:10
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
華盛頓時報的戰機交貨報導原文﹕ http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030214-78651571.htm

NO:86_13

WILLIAM 　於　2003/02/19 10:31
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
2003.02.19　中國時報殲十戰機照片首次曝光亓樂義/台北報導 http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110505+112003021900072,00.html 中共最新研製的殲十戰機（J─10A）照片，日前首次刊登在大陸正式發行的軍事雜誌「坦克裝甲車輛」，並由官方「千龍」新聞網轉載，顯示殲十將脫下神祕面紗展現於世人眼前。可靠消息稱，殲十設計的主要對手是台灣的F─16和日本的F─2戰機。一般來說，中共戰機在出廠試飛時，大多在飛機尚未噴漆前進行，機身顏色是防銹的黃色，如果在噴漆後飛行，代表該機已適合於空戰的銀灰色。從「坦克裝甲車輛」刊載的殲十照片來看，其機身呈銀灰色，並掛載「霹靂─8」空對空導彈，顯示殲十應該試飛定型已經投產。據公開資料和專家分析研判，殲十是單發單垂翼、重達十公噸級輕型多用途戰機，它和以色列「雄獅」戰機的設計略有不同，雖然兩者均為單翼和機腹進氣道設計，但仍有差異，前者強調低空格鬥、高空機動，兼對地攻擊性能，後者則以戰場遮斷為主，奪取制空權為輔。據了解，殲十將和中共現役的殲八─二、蘇愷─27、蘇愷─30及防空導彈系統形成高低搭配、構成一個大密度、大縱深、高中低空互為重疊的立體防空網，因此殲十角色類似我國的F─16，並力拚日本新型F─2戰機。專家指出，殲十雖為中共第一種兼具空優和對地雙重戰力的國產飛機，但可以肯定，中共至今仍無法解決數位線傳飛控系統、翼身融合與大推力渦扇發動機等三大技術障礙，在相當時間內，這些都需要國外支援，俄羅斯和以色列扮演重要角色。從掛載武器看，殲十裝配「霹靂─8」等空對空導彈，待中共機載光電探測吊艙完全成熟後，預料殲十將可掛載R─27、R─77、R─73等遠、中、近距等精確制導飛彈，以及C─801、Kh─41等反艦導彈。

NO:86_14

VOR 　於　2003/02/19 16:26
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
無新聞網址，不能確定真偽。成飛做的新戰機就三種﹕ 殲十、殲七改良、FC-1。是哪一種各位自行判斷 ––––––––––– 劉高倬赴西北新机試飛現場檢查工作勉勵參試人員努力拼搏确保完成定型試飛任務 2003/02/14 　　正當某型新机在西北某地進入緊張、關鍵的定型試飛之際，中航一集團劉高倬總經理率辦公廳、航空產品部、政治部等總部有關部門主要負責人，于2月11～13日到現場檢查工作。　　2月11日，剛剛到達的劉高倬總經理即參加了第四次試飛現場辦公會議，听取了試飛現場指揮部關于前段試飛情況和近期試飛工作安排的匯報，對前段試飛工作給予充分肯定，并對下步工作提出了要求。　　2月12日上午，劉總在航空產品部晏翔部長和基地領導等陪同下，來到机場，檢查了試飛工作，親切看望、慰問了試飛院、成飛公司、611所和試飛團等單位駐現場工作的同志們。下午，試飛現場指揮部召開了試飛決胜動員大會，總裝軍兵种部、空軍裝備部領導和611所宋文驄總師分別發了言，試飛院等參研代表表示堅決完成任務的信心和決心。劉高倬總經理親自做了動員講話。他充分肯定前段試飛工作取得的成績并高度贊揚了參試有關單位的同志們冒酷暑、戰嚴寒，在大漠戈壁艱苦拼搏、建左5c立業、報效祖國的高昂斗志，代表党組向大家表示崇高的敬意! 　　劉總在動員報告中，強調了某型新机在國防建設中的重要意義，指出今年定型試飛進入了決胜階段，面臨著關鍵科目多、試飛風險大等种种挑戰，要求全體參試人員要以十六大精神為指導，堅決貫徹中央軍委領導提出的“仍需繼續努力，仍需繼續拼搏，仍需繼續超常工作”要求，進一步明确目標，統一思想，強化現場指揮部的權威，加強試飛管理和組織，把質量安全工作放到最突出的位置來抓，從而以激情進取的精神，确保完成定型試飛任務。　　晚上，劉高倬總經理設宴招待集團公司駐現場參試的370多名科研人員，他在祝酒詞中動情地說：“同志們報國強軍的理想實踐在戈壁灘，凝結在新机中，可敬可佩。” 這些大部分已在大漠戈壁工作八、九個月，連春節仍堅守崗位奮戰加班的參研員工心情激動，互相祝酒勉勵，基地食堂一片沸騰。

NO:86_15

VOR 　於　2003/02/19 16:30
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
此文說是 FC-1 ------ 六一一所積極奮戰超七飛机試制現場熱火朝天 2003-02-19 09:41:48 　　來自航空系統的消息稱，今年，六一一所承擔著重點型號“一机定型，兩机首飛”等多項任務，在超七飛机試制現場，職工們正月初三就開始正式上班，所設計代表室堅守崗位輪流值班，相關專業結构、電气、總體等設計人員不辭辛勞往返試制現場，及時處理解決各种技術問題。設計人員們是認真負責，一絲不苟，經常工作到很晚。經過厂、所設計人員与工人師傅共同努力，春節期間，試制現場布設飛控電纜和導管取樣工作都進展順利，工作現場熱火朝天。　　　　消息稱，日前，六一一所總設計師宋文驄、楊偉已前往西線參加由集團公司組織召開的現場辦公會，努力做好各項工作，确保重點型號定型工作決戰順利進行。

NO:86_16

VOR 　於　2003/02/19 16:41
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
平可夫在詹氏刊登的原文 (於一月解放軍欄中提到)﹕ JANES DEFENCE WEEKLY - FEBRUARY 05, 2003 Yihong Chang JDW Correspondent Toronto The Chinese Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Type 052A destroyer Harbin (112) has emerged from refit with a number of upgraded weapon systems. Harbin, the first of two Type 052A ships, entered service with the PLAN in July 1994. Originally equipped with eight YJ8-1 ( C-801) surface-to-surface guided weapons (SSGWs), its recent refit has seen the ship re-equipped with 16 box launchers believed to house the more modern YJ8-3 (C-803) weapon. According to Chinese sources, the YJ8-3, first displayed in October 1999, is a 150km-range SSGW executing a supersonic terminal phase. In another change, the French-supplied Crotale surface-to-air missile system originally installed aboard Harbin has been replaced by the indigenous HQ-7 (FM-90N) system. While HQ-7 is a development of Crotale, the decision to fit the indigenous system appears to reflect PLAN confidence in the superior performance of HQ-7. It will also simplify support across the fleet. Sources from the China Aerospace Science & Industry Corp (CASIC) suggest that the FM90N missile used by the PLAN incorporates some technology from the FM2000 system to improve performance against sea-skimming anti-ship missile threats. Harbins 100mm twin-gun mounting has also been modified to feature a new low radar-cross-section gunshield.

NO:86_17

VOR 　於　2003/02/19 16:44
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
同樣無原新聞網址: ------ 運12最新型飛机首批交付中新网2月18日電運-12家族最先進的IV型和E型新型飛机，昨日在成都率先投入使用。昨日，在成都市成飛集團公司，由該集團華西通用航空公司購進的兩架Y12IV型、 Y12E型飛机舉行了交付儀式。据成都日報報道，這是該机型制造商——哈飛航空國內首批交付的飛机，它們將有望分別用于人工增雨、森林播种、定點公務飛行、空中游覽及九寨溝景點的支線運輸等。華西通用航空公司在原有的運5B型飛机無法滿足高原、高山飛行的情況下，率先在全國引進了這兩款先進机型。運12系列飛机其IV型和E型飛机是哈飛新近研制的新型通用飛机。兩款机型升限均在7000米以上，有17個座位、商載重量近2吨，适合高山、高原飛行。其中，運12E型机增加了供氧系統、豪華內部裝飾，适合于空中游覽和公務飛行。据介紹，運12IV型將用于航空遙感、人工增雨、森林巡護和播种等項目。同時，在民航總局批准后，將把運12E型机用于定點公務飛行、空中游覽、九寨溝景點支線運輸等領域。

NO:86_18

WILLIAM 　於　2003/02/20 11:01
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
中共撤部分東南沿海飛彈部隊 http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR1/1201539.shtml 本報記者／綜合報導中共軍方人士指出，中共在今年農曆年前後，從東南沿海將部分來自西北蘭州軍區駐紮在福建的飛彈部隊移防回西北駐地。目前尚無法獲知，這批部隊是屬於正常輪調，還是撤防。中共官方則低調表示，中共有權在領土內部署任何武器裝備，任何的調動也均屬正常活動。有關人士認為，中共此舉是不希望飛彈部署問題，繼續成為台灣當局指責中共的一個藉口，也是表達中共緩和兩岸關係、爭取台灣民心、寄希望於台灣人民的一項善意舉動。中共對台學者指出，中共在東南沿海部署飛彈，對台灣是威懾作用，更重要的是針對「外國勢力」。如果中共要對台動武，並不需要四百枚飛彈。北京研究美國問題的學者則認為，中共部署飛導彈主要考慮有三：一是區域安全，二是「中」美軍備管制與武器擴散，三是兩岸關係。目前中共似乎沒有撤除飛彈的可能性。尤其，如果中共希望美國能因中共撤除飛彈就停止對台軍售，中共可能會失望。目前中共在東南沿海部署四百枚可以攻擊台灣的飛彈。去年十月間，中共國家主席江澤民訪問美國克勞福農場時，曾主動向美國總統布希談及，中共願意撤除飛彈，以換取美國停止對台軍售，未獲美國重視，台灣也認為是中共宣傳伎倆。【2003/02/20 聯合報】

NO:86_19

WILLIAM 　於　2003/02/21 11:08
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
大陸對台彈道飛彈年增75枚 http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR1/1203320.shtml 經濟日報編譯陳澄和／路透華盛頓21日電美國國防部的台灣事務官員表示，中國大陸瞄準台灣的彈道飛彈每年至少增加75枚，到2005年的總數可能高達600枚。國防部空軍中校史托克斯說：「台灣面對的是全世界最可怕的傳統彈道飛彈威脅。」美國政府官員在美台國防工業秘密會議上，敦促台灣應儘快佈署反飛彈系統，反制中共激增的中短程飛彈威脅。【2003/02/21 聯合新聞網】

NO:86_20

VOR 　於　2003/02/27 08:06
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR1/1209757.shtml 中航第一集團銷售11架殲七大陸新聞中心綜合報導由大陸中國航空工業總公司旗下，專事生產軍、民用及相關設備的中國航空工業第一集團宣布，去年全年集團共簽訂十一架殲七ＰＧ戰機及教練機的出口合約，以及一億六千多萬美元的飛機零組件出口合約。千龍網報導，中航一集團公司副總經理胡問鳴，在集團二○○三年度經營計畫工作會上表示，集團克服九一一事件，和全球航空業疲弱不振的不利影響，全年完成交付額一億二千萬美元；簽訂十一架殲七ＰＧ、殲教七ＰＧ飛機的出口合約，以及一億六千四百萬美元的航空零組件轉包生產合約。根據中航一集團公司官方網站提供的資料，二○○二年中航一集團總收入三百十五億元人民幣，其中企業銷售收入二百一十五億元，較前一年成長百分之十五點六。全年出口交付額約十億美元，進口交付額廿五億美元。機電產品累計出口交付額八億四千萬美元，進口交付額廿三億美元。另外，企業在處理三億八千萬元人民幣的不良資產時，盈虧相抵利潤二億四千萬元，比前一年決算盈利增加一億八千萬元。在科研事業單位，總收入五十五億元，較前一年成長百分之十四；實現收益四億三千萬元。據中航一集團提出的「十五」（二○○一至二○○五）發展計畫，該集團將加強外貿發展，希望在「十五」期間實現進出口總額一百億美元、出口飛機一百架的目標。同時，集團也將重點擴大殲七系列、殲八ⅡＭ飛機及其備件出口，做好殲七、飛豹、運七飛機及導彈、機載設備出口。大陸出口的軍用飛機除了殲七、殲八系列外，還包括被稱為「超七」的ＦＣ─１型戰機。而原本預計在去年十一月珠海航空展亮相的殲十戰機，則未上市先轟動，早有泰國、巴基斯坦和伊朗等國有興趣。而據英國「空軍月刊」報導，在非洲和南美，殲?也會有很大的市場。【2003/02/26 聯合報】 ------- http://www.pladaily.com.cn/big5/pladaily/2003/02/26/20030226001015_Army.html http://www.pladaily.com.cn 2003年02月26日星期三南空某師提高新裝備戰斗力紀實 ●陳漢忠　閻國友　本報特約記者　宋方　　　　莽莽蒼穹，一場𢬢憚�條件下的空中對抗在急促的警報聲中拉開序幕。擔負空中進攻任務的䆐躑x𦆮埩騛B用分進突擊等戰法，在突破對手空中防線后，對挱鶩x釺a面縱深目標實施了精确打擊。這支快如閃電、猛如鷹隼的空中突擊分隊，是由南空航空兵某師裝備的新型戰机扮演的。　　1　一天拂曉，上級命令該師新裝備扮演的䆐躑x𤪺簬璊阞禳A對挱鶩x釺a 空導彈和雷達陣地進行突擊。　　5時47分，雙机起飛后，擔負佯動任務的戰机按原定的演練程序進入佯動區，策應另一條航線上的戰机進行主攻。由于挱鶩x� 沒有按固定的套路和圖上推演模式排兵布陣，而是將陣地和防線前推，使得䆐躑x𦆮埩饃絨s3次按程序進入攻擊，不但沒有發現所要攻擊的目標，還被對手鎖定攻擊，致使首輪空中突擊計划挱y 產㷍C 　　正當有的飛行員抱怨對手𢬢シW睸氶A師領導們卻陷入了沉思：戰場永遠沒有固定模式，會出現許多意想不到的情況。不打破平時訓練中墨守成規的套路，不跳出習慣性思維定勢的框架，戰斗力就難以有新的突破。針對平時戰術訓練、戰法合練靈活性不強、過于刻板等問題，該師對訓練進行了大膽改革創新，取得了較好效果。　　又一次演練開始了，該師組織一部分兵力机動，一部分兵力在机場附近空域待命𪑛鱉�。飛机升空不久，師指揮所中途下令，執行空戰任務的飛机改變航線，緊急飛赴某空域，對遠程机動的空中梯隊進行空中支援和掩護。盡管情況突變，也不允許再次准備，但飛行員根据指揮員的指令，還是分秒不差地到達待戰空域。　　2　空戰即將展開，起飛線上，戰机已經啟動，而擔負空中打擊和空中攔截任務的挱�、䆐�軍雙方飛行員都還沒有拿到領航數据，對手的情報資料、空中態勢全部是空白。挱�、䆐�軍各設一個指揮所，互不通報情況。雙方指揮員現場擬定作戰計划，參戰飛行員跨進座艙后才將航行資料拿到手。　　這种演練的逼真性、對抗性固然很強，但最大的還是風險性。在𢬢憚�條件下，挱�、䆐�軍雙方多方位、多層次實施進攻与防衛，空中机動動作量大，空域內部署戰机的密度高，很容易造成危險。但要使新裝備訓練改革走出一條新路，就不能演𩣪擗l 戲㷍B唱𤧣酗潀�這种一廂情愿的理想化模式，必須勇于應對新軍事變革的挑戰，將危險留在平時的訓練中。　　該師不僅在訓練中增加對抗課目的比重，將敫亳m式𡡤漸H劣胜优對抗演變為強強對抗；把小范圍的尖子對抗，拓展到以團為建制的規模型對抗；將本場簡單條件、熟悉環境下的對抗，外延到陌生環境、陌生空域實施；將晝夜能見度較好、气象條件較高的對抗，置于凌晨或拂曉等條件复雜的作戰背景下遂行。不僅同兄弟航空兵部隊對抗，練空中進攻与防御，還与地空導彈兵、雷達兵部隊輪番對抗。從對空突破与打擊到對地突防、突擊，從近距离空中格斗、臨空轟炸地面目標到超視距空戰、對地面點狀目標㨩鶪O圈外𤪺醑怚替說A反复錘煉高技術條件下的空地打擊、抗敵打擊的作戰硬功。　　3　該師改裝新型戰机后，常挂在飛行員嘴邊最時髦的詞就是唍� 确打擊㷍B 𣊫s誤差𨫣M𣂎W視距㩞扔央C在導彈、炸彈等對空對地模擬攻擊演練中，飛行員們也毫不含糊，全部都是首次進入、首次發現、首攻命中。　　時間久了，部分同志產生了𣑐酗F先進裝備就有戰斗力𡡤熒Q 法，一些同志也變得飄飄然起來。　　一次，兩名飛行員演練導彈實彈對空攻擊課目時，進入攻擊航線后，飛行員發現及時、截獲穩定，原以為首發命中，結果導彈發射后卻發生意外。　　師党委抓住這件事大做文章，教育引導部隊從這种意外的失敗中清醒頭腦。他們針對新裝備的理論和技術𪑛摯�多等實際，把新裝備的訓練和作戰使用放在一定的新環境中去思考運籌。有計划、有步驟地組織飛行員對机載武器系統的使用難點進行理論和實踐攻關。結合机載武器系統的訓練使用，先后撰寫出近百篇研討文章，填補了新裝備作戰使用理論上的空白。　　理論上的突破帶來了技術上的飛躍。對新理論、新技術持續的刻苦鑽研，使飛行人員對電子干擾、超視距打擊、精确打擊等高技術作戰環境和高技術武器裝備的使用，從一般掌握到科學駕馭，新戰法的演練使用也實現了一個又一個的新跨越。　　尖刀鋒從磨礪出。前不久，一場帶有戰術背景條件的實彈打擊演練在某地展開。隨著演練開始的號令，新型戰机全部准時起飛，准時到達、准确攻擊，導彈命中率達到100%。

NO:86_21

VOR 　於　2003/02/27 08:07
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110501+112003022600010,00.html 2003.02.26 中國時報蠶式飛彈中共否認後援陳旭華/台北報導在北韓試射飛彈後，中共呼籲各方保持冷靜和克制，以維護朝鮮半島的和平穩定。對於有報導稱北韓的飛彈來自中國大陸，中共也加以駁斥。據「路透」報導，中共外交部發言人孔泉表示，「中國在朝核問題上的立場沒有變化，各方應努力維護朝鮮半島的和平與穩定，中國支持朝鮮半島實現非核化，通過政治和外交的手段和平解決問題。」對於有報導指稱，北韓所試射的是中國出口的蠶式飛彈，孔泉也加以否認。他說，「無論是影射或直接說導彈是中國的、中國製造的，或者利用中國技術製造的所有報導，都是極不負責、毫無根據的。」

NO:86_22

VOR 　於　2003/02/27 08:42
Re:2003 年 2 月解放軍軍動態剪報
http://tw.news.yahoo.com/2003/02/23/twoshore/infotimes/3828480.html 時報 2003年02月23日濟南軍區傳裁撤直屬中央軍委【徐尚禮台北報導】　在中共國務院正進行部委精簡計畫的同時，解放軍則傳出進一步整編消息，現有七大軍區考慮裁撤濟南軍區，直屬中央軍委。　據大陸軍事網站表示，「北京盛傳醞量已久的新一輪裁軍即將開始，某大軍區將被裁撤；全軍後勤系統亦將有重大調整，一些單位將遭剝離；重點部隊的建設將得到進一步加強。」　大陸軍事專家指出，被裁撤的將是濟南軍區，因為其他六大軍區遇到戰爭則轉變為「戰區司令部」，只有濟南軍區為中央戰略總預備隊。　七大軍區裁併另一消息是將北京、蘭州兩軍區與瀋陽軍區合併，成為五大軍區。　中共現有七大軍區中，瀋陽、北京、蘭州三個軍區以因應俄國及外蒙古形勢為主；成都軍區以因應對印度之作戰；廣州軍區以因應對越南及南中國海之作戰為主；南京軍區以因應對台灣之作戰為主。各大軍區平時負責其防區內的守備任務，到了戰時各軍區司令部即轉變為因應局部戰爭的戰區司令部。　解放軍軍區制度變革是否從討論演變為現實尚待觀察。但從中共黨史看來，只要中共高層權力變動或面臨世代交替，軍區建制就會變動，過去五個時期的演變莫不如此。　解放軍軍區建制最初是六大軍區制（一九五○年）即：東北、華北、中南、華東、西南、西北。一九五五年，毛澤東為防止軍頭坐大，「削藩」後變成十二個大軍區，其後林彪當權成為十一大軍區，林彪叛逃後，毛晚年（一九七三年）強令八大軍區司令員對調，鄧小平上台後（一九八五年至今）將十一大軍區改制為目前七大軍區。在中共十六後，一些大軍區司令員、政委均已換血，新任者為中將銜，目前一些上將銜大軍區領導即將屆齡（六十五歲）退休。　去年十一月中共十六後，中央軍委幾個軍事將領擔任的軍委副主席如張萬年、傅全有、王克全全都下台，以黨領軍的軍委副主席胡錦濤並未接下軍委主席江澤民大位。　今年三月間北京將召開兩會，外傳江澤民仍將留任國家軍委主席。在黨、軍高層又逢世代交替之際，傳出軍區制度變革討論並不令人意外。

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