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May 29, 2001
Taiwans PC Makers Shift Production to China
By MARK LANDLER

Horace Tsiang, who was born in Shanghai in 1941 but spent most of his life in the United States, often dreams about finishing his career in the city of his birth. He may get the chance.

Mr. Tsiangs computer company, which is based in this dreary industrial suburb of Taipei, is moving much of its manufacturing to a factory near Shanghai. The company will keep its design work in Taiwan. But within a decade, Mr. Tsiang predicts, China will take over that too ?leaving Taiwan as a satellite, rather than the engine, of East Asias technology industry.

Its a no-brainer ?nothing can stop it from happening, said Mr. Tsiang, who knows about the ebb and flow of technology from a stint at the ill-fated American computer maker Wang Laboratories.

Mr. Tsiang is part of a corporate exodus that has profound implications for this technology-dependent island. It also has implications for American computer makers like Dell, Compaq and Gateway, which rely on Taiwanese companies to build many of the personal computers that bear their brand names.

As Taiwans subcontractors migrate to China, the United States is likely to end up in an odd position: its main supplier of PCs and other information-technology, or I.T., gear will be its main strategic adversary. Given the recent rancor between Beijing and Washington, that prospect unsettles some executives.

There is a question of economic security, said Morris Chang, the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, one of the worlds largest chip makers. If in the future, China were to stop shipping I.T. products, that could shut down a large part of the I.T. industry in the U.S.

Mr. Chang and other executives believe such a scenario is unlikely, in part because Beijing cannot afford to jeopardize its own economic growth. But they note that with China becoming a critical link in the global supply chain, political skirmishes could have costly economic fallout.

It is the computing equivalent of mutually assured destruction, said Andrew S. Grove, chairman of the No. 1 chip maker, Intel. You cant hurt the other party without hurting yourself.

There is no shortage of potential bones of contention. Despite the rapid economic integration of Taiwan and China, the two remain sharply at odds over the future of the island. Beijing regards it as a renegade province that must be unified with the Chinese mainland, by force if necessary. President Bush recently pledged to do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan from attack.

Unintentionally, or due to lack of awareness, one could start a chain of events that could lead to disruption, Mr. Grove said.

A few statistics illustrate Taiwans linchpin role in the global computer industry: Its companies make 53 percent of the worlds laptops and 25 percent of its desktop PCs. They make an even larger percentage of peripheral products, like scanners, monitors and keyboards. Forty-one percent of Taiwans laptops, and 38 percent of desktops, are shipped to the United States.

Few Americans realize how much of their equipment is made in Taiwan. The PCs sold by Compaq, Dell, and Gateway bear few signs of their place of origin ?a testament to the quiet competence of Taiwanese companies that has made them the subcontractors of choice for the American computer industry.

But as PCs have become a commodity, the Americans have squeezed their Taiwanese suppliers for lower costs. Taiwans deteriorating economy and scarcity of land are also hurting. That has prompted the major players ?Quanta, Compal, First International and Arima ?to search for other sites.

The obvious candidate is China, with its vast, cheap and increasingly educated labor pool. Add to that the low cost of power, water and easy financing by solicitous local governments, and Taiwanese companies say the cost of doing business in China is a fraction of that at home.

They are also being lured by the market. Unlike in the United States, where sales of PCs have slowed, demand is booming in China, as middle-class parents buy computers for their children. Crédit Lyonnais Securities, a brokerage firm, estimates that Chinas market will grow 41 percent this year.

Taiwan already makes the bulk of components like disk drives and power adaptors in Chinese factories. Eight out of 10 Taiwanese scanners, and nearly half the monitors, are assembled in the mainland.

Last year, Taiwan produced 25 percent of desktop PCs in Chinese plants, according to the Market Intelligence Center, a research group in Taipei. Those numbers understate the reality, since many PCs are basically built in China ?but shipped to Taiwan or the United States for final assembly.

Compal Electronics, the second- largest maker of laptop computers, said it would move 15 percent of its manufacturing to China this year, anther 50 percent in 2002, and the rest within three years.

American companies dont care where you make computers, said Mr. Tsiang, whose company, First International Computer, manufactures PCs for the Japanese giant, NEC. They want the cheapest costs, period.

These economic imperatives may bring Taiwans computer manufacturers into conflict with the government. Technology helped lift this island from the ashes of war to prosperity, and Taipei is loath to surrender it. As part of a strategy known as go slow, be patient, the government imposes strict restrictions on the kinds of technology that can be exported to China.

While companies can make PCs, monitors, keyboards and other low- end products, they are not allowed to build laptops or semiconductors, which have higher profits and more sophisticated engineering.

Taiwan is expected to lift the ban on laptops and 6-inch silicon wafers, but politics is slowing down the process. Vice President Annette Lu, a supporter of Taiwanese independence, says it is ridiculous for Taiwanese companies to pour money into China, when Beijing has 300 missiles aimed at the island.

While the politicians argue, the companies are plowing ahead. Compal, Arima and First International have opened factories to assemble laptop computers near Shanghai. To avoid breaking the rules, they say they are making components, rather than assembling entire machines. But executives said at least two companies were already producing complete laptops in China.



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