小滬尾:
Happy New (Lunar) Year!
Just a quick question: (I have been reading too much Tom Clancys paperbacks...)

How is Taiwans own military and civil defence geared up against a limited-scale territorial biological warfare waged by an unfriendly country? Were there any case studies and researches done on this? I wonder where I can find some published material relating to this topic.

Thanks a lot.

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/22 20:48
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DH bro,
Happy New Year to You! My friend.

I am afraid to tell you. For military, the capbility is limited. For civil, it can be said, zero.
Very scary!

The organization performing the researching and studies on these topic is National Defence Medical Center. I read some reports before, NDMC had conducted some research in the defence against the biological warfare attack.

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/22 21:41
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DH bro,
There is some foreign comments. You may check it out.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/taiwan/bw/index.html

Just my personal opinions, if an organization can develop some kind of biological warfare protecting measure, definitely, this organization already have the capbility of developing the biological warfare.

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DH 　於　2001/01/22 22:48
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小滬尾 :
Thanks a lot for the info.

I agree that if an organisation can develop some kind of biological warfare protection mechanism worth mentioning, it should already have the capability of developing biological weapons.

I remember I have read from somewhere that the biological/chemical weapons are the poor mans nuke. Obviously when I said a limited scale biological weapons attack, I did not mean it is in the small scale comparable to the Tokyo subway attacks by (gee, I cant pronounce the name of that religious sect) the fanatical religious sect. After hearing the death of the family in Hua-lien and the unnecessary panic accompanied by the tragic event, what if an unfriendly foreign power (China, for example) decides to use the biological warfare as part of the strategy of the invasion?

Generally, on a technical level, the effect of the biological warfare is far more devastating on the civilian population than on the military personnel.
Just imagine the kind of pandemonium and chaos it will create among the TW population if the news of a plague has taken place in Taiwan.

Think of the following scenario:

If the unfriendly foreign power possesses the bio-technology to alter a common strain of the gastro-enteritis virus genetically. The result is a new strain of virus capable of causing physical weakness (but not fatal) of 1-2 weeks for the infected. This new strain of virus is aerosol, in addition to the normal channels in the spread of contamination (through insects, unclean drinking water, food, physical touch and exchange of body fluids). The initial installations of the virus are not done by means of some M9/M11 warheads delivered to major population centres but through means of deliveries done by the 5th Column of the enemy agents. Other than the obvious result that panic and chaos prevail in the civil society (and in a lesser scale, the military), there may be a possibility that the neighbouring/friendly countries impose some kind of de facto embargo because of quarantine requirements. (As a result it is equivalent to a full naval/air blockade). Normally, if an enemy attacks us using weapons of mass-destruction, we can reply in kind. However, since the virus (1) seems not to be life-threatening and (2) there is no concrete and irrefutable proof that the unfriendly foreign power has actually initialsed the biological attack (3) TW does not have an extensive biological/chemical weaponery and we cant nuke the enemy, it is likely that our military may not be able to defend the country effectively because half of the population are either spending their days sitting on the toilet seat or running around to find the next 7-11 stocked with toilet papers.

My question is, if this kind of things happens, does the TW military have an effective counter or a plan of action to last Taiwan for another few weeks before the help arrives?

Taiwanse civil defence has gone slack. It is time to shape it up so it can also play its roles in resisting the attack of foreign powers...

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/23 00:15
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DH兄
小弟有時也是會有如老兄一樣的憂慮﹐
這種生物武器威脅的議題﹐個人這方面知識實在不足﹐
可能要請路過兄談談﹐看看專業的看法。

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DH 　於　2001/01/23 05:51
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小滬尾 :
Okay...hopefully 路過兄 will read this and post his comment here.
Taiwans population density is very high and in certain aspects we are very suspectible to this kind of attack.
(and the problem is, we cant strike back in kind for obvious reasons..)

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DH 　於　2001/01/23 20:08
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小滬尾 :
In addition, I would like to emphasise that issues like ABC (atomic/biological/chemical) weapons (that is, weapons of mass destruction) are always an emotive and provocative ones but it is not my intention at all to cause any extreme speeches and spread of hatred in this site among all the participants. After all, this is a discussion forum on military matters. Despite this, Taiwan as a country does face some potential threats in biological/chemical warfare. When the political leadership across the strait mumbles on the slogans such as The Clear and Urgent Need to Achieve Unification, it gives me goosebumps sometimes. Not to fear them, of course, as you have correctly pointed out that China may be able to defeat Taiwan in conventional warfare only in 50-60 years time.
Yet if the military machine is certainly not capable of conquering through conventional means but its political leadership has this Clear and Urgent Need to command and conquer, how do they reconcile the two?
I will not be too surprised if their military thinktank already have several invasion plans based on strategic surprised using unconventional means. Yes, China may face the full wrath and the military might of the nations in the world if it even contemplates to nuke Taiwan. However, will any other nation in the world who will rally an amry on Taiwane behalf over some viruses that cause diarrhoea? I can understand even the most ardent TI supporters will not think of destroying Three Gorges Project Dam, but will the enemy afford us the same kind of humanitarian consideration?
Again, people in Taiwan faces distinct possibility of a limited-scale biological/chemical warfare, however, the literatures relating to the topic in the public domain are few and far between. I have to go to the FAS site run by the Yanks to find some small information regarding the issue. Generally speaking, I do not consider the discussion of such subjects is a taboo, because it is not in the same vein as the Destruction of Three Gorges to flood the Chinese or Missles tipped with nuclear warheads to roast the Taiwanese. Perhaps some discrete discuission in this site with several regular contributors will give me the cue to satisfy my (fatal?) curiosity?

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Tsky 　於　2001/01/23 20:58
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soka.... 小弟很容易胡思亂想 以前的口蹄疫跟最近花蓮的怪病都讓偶神經過敏...-_-||||

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/23 21:27
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DH兄
這個生化武器的議題當然不是什麼禁忌。事實上﹐三峽大壩的是也不是什麼禁忌﹗
只是再次說明一下﹐台灣有很多種方法可以摧毀三峽大壩﹐老共也是很清楚﹐所以
這是要不要﹐而非能不能的問題﹐台灣若是要考慮到摧毀三峽大壩﹐那已經兩岸準
備要下地獄的時機﹐這已經是很嚴重的議題﹐不是喊爽就好﹐小弟甚至擔心﹐在台
灣這種事情比較膚淺化的環境下﹐有人會認為﹐只要有能力摧毀三峽大壩﹐一切高
枕無憂﹐這是非常危險的看法﹗這也是個人會干預“言論自由”的地方﹗

至於生化武器攻擊的討論﹐本身悠關台灣的安危﹐多一份認知﹐就是對自己安全多
份保障﹐小弟當然歡迎這議題。

有關低強度生化武器攻擊﹐個人認為在類似第五縱隊破壞的方式﹐只有生物武器可
行﹐化武的使用太過明顯﹐雖然可以造成恐慌﹐但低強度的攻擊能量對摧毀台灣的
防禦力有限﹐面對國際的制裁﹐老共會賠了夫人又折兵﹗

由第五縱隊進行低強度生物武器攻擊就比較可行﹐不過﹐一般生物武器是經過特殊
處理﹐病菌的壽命很短﹐因為主要是用來殺人後﹐方便佔領敵人的守地﹐所以台灣
方面可能遭受的是類似一般的病菌﹐因為太特殊的﹐我方也會察覺﹐老共馬上就會
被貼標籤﹐也不划算。

對於一般的病菌﹐就靠衛生署的防疫單位﹐百姓配合作好衛生﹐不讓病媒有機會傳
染病菌﹐還有﹐政府有時應該考慮﹐對那種走私未檢疫牲畜的百姓實施重罰﹗

一點淺見﹐希望能回答老兄的問題。

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/24 05:56
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DH兄
有關一些生化武器的概述
http://www.calpoly.edu/~drjones/chemwarf.html

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DH 　於　2001/01/24 06:24
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小滬尾 bro:
Thanks once again for your precise and informative reply.
In my humble opinion, if Chinese decides to use biological weapons against Taiwan, the main purpose will not be killing military personnel and non-combatants. As you rightly mentioned, the Chinese doesnt want to be labelled (at least in the early stages of the game plan).
If the likes of Ebola appears in Taiwanese Cities simulaneously we can safely point the finger at the crowds across the strait.

However, I think if the Chinese use biological weapons, it will be part of the greater invasion plan and its main purpose will be to create panic among the cilivian population. Biological warfare is one of the cheapest way to create confusions and panic, especially it is accompanied by rumours and ineffective health controls.
In a way, Chinese doesnt need the virus of the calibre like Ebola or anthrax in Taiwan. Some genetically re-engineered flu virus will do nicely!

If I am the PLA decision maker, I will choose the b-weapon with the following characteristics:
- it must have a relatively long life span and sleeping period (for example, one week)
- the contamination must be relatively easy (e.g aerosol)
- it must not be fiercely fatal, although it must sound horrible (for propaganda purposes). Also it must be serious enough that neighbouring countries will consider applying total quarantine measures against Taiwan.
- Antidotes must be difficult to find and expensive/time consuming to produce
- its original strain must be derived from the famous non-curable high-exposure diseases such as BJD, foot-and-mouth...etc. In other words, its source virus must be vell-known and notorious.
- it must be able to survive under (relatively) adverse conditions for a period of time.

I agree with you 100% that the TW authorities must apply the necessary legislations and enforce regulations strictly and vigously. After all, without a healthy population a country will not be able to function properly.

Tsky bro:
Sometimes I wonder about the same thing. Perhaps unwittingly some pig farms in Taiwan have become the testing ground for virus from China (although they have so many of their own pigs to test on!)...

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小滬尾 　於　2001/01/24 07:15
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DH兄
Your assumptions regarding the ideal B-weapon against Taiwan are reasonable.

However, my knowledge of B-weapon is very limited. I can not comment the feasibility of such B-weapon. I used to think genetic engineering technology is quite almighty.
Nevertheless, a friend whose major in moleculer biology field told me not to think so. I tried to understand and I failed since tons of unfamiliar terminology.