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NO:1798_21
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/22 06:14
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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³Å¥ß°Òªº»¡©ú¬O¥Zµn¦b1969¦~ªºAER¡C¦³¨â­Ó²z¥ÑÅý³Å¥ß°Ò»{¬°³f¹ô¬Fµ¦¤£À³¸ÓµÛ­«µu´Á®ÄªG¡C²Ä¤@¡A¸gÀÙ¬ì¾Çªºµo®i¡AÁÙ¨S¦³ºë½T¨ìÅý§Ú­Ì¥i¥H¤F¸Ñµu´Áª«»ù»P²£¥X¶¡ªº¦UºØ¤¬°Ê¡C³o­Ó§PÂ_¦b¤µ¤Ñ¨ÌµM¦¨¥ß¡C²Ä¤G¡A¬Fµ¦±q¹ê¬I¨ì®ÄªG¤§¶¡¦³®É¶¡¸¨®t¡C¨Ò¦p¡A·í§Ú­ÌÆ[¹î¨ìµu´Áª«»ù¤U¶^®É¡A¦Ó±Ä¦æ³f¹ô¼eÃP¬Fµ¦®É¡A«Ü¦³¥i¯àª«»ù¨ä¹ê¤w¸g¶^¨ì¨¦©³¡A§Y¨Ï¨S¦³¬Fµ¦¤z¹w¤]·|¦b¤U¤@´Á¦^¤É¡C¦¹¨è±Ä¦æ¼eÃP¬Fµ¦¡A¤Ï­Ë¬O·|¼W¥[³q³f¿±µÈªºÀ£¤O¡C´«¥y¸Ü»¡¡A¹ïµu´Áªºª«»ù»P²£¥XÅܰʶi¦æ¬Fµ¦½Õ¾ã¡A©¹©¹¥u¬O¼W¥[´º®ð´`Àôªºªi°Ê¡A¦Ó¤£¬Oí©wª«»ù»P²£¥X¡C

²z©Ê¹w´Á¾Ç¬£¡A°ò¥»¤W¬OÄ~©Ó³Å¥ß°Òªº½×ÂI¡A¥u¬O¥Î§óºë½Tªº¼Æ¾Ç»y¨¥­«·s³¯­z¡C¦b³Å¥ß°Òªº¤å³¹¡Aµá¤O´¶¦±½uÁÙ¬O­t±×²vªº¡A¦]¬°¥Á²³±Ä¦æªº¬O¾AÀ³©Ê¹w´Á¡A©Ò¥H¬F©²°¸º¸ÁÙ¥i¥H´ÛÄF·M§Ë¤@¤U¦Ñ¦Ê©m¡C¦ý¬O¡A²z©Ê¹w´Á¾Ç¬£§i¶D§Ú­Ì¡A°²¦p¥Á²³±Ä¦æªº¬O²z©Ê¹w´Á¡A¨º»òµá¤O´¶¦±½u·|¬O««ª½ªº¡C´«¥y¸Ü»¡¡A¼W¥[³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¡A¤£¶È¦bªø´Á¡A§Y«K¦bµu´Á¤]¤£·|¼W¥[²£¥X¡C§óÁV¿|ªº¬O¡A¥Ñ©ó¬F©²¬Fµ¦ÂZ¶Ã¤F¥«³õ°T®§¡A²£¥Xªºªi°Ê¤]·|¼W¥[¡C¸Ô²Óªº±À½×¡A¥i¥H¦b³¯®v©s¡uÁ`Åé¸gÀپǺt¸q¡v²Ä¤Q¤C³¹§ä¨ì¡C


NO:1798_22
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/24 02:38
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

²Ä¤G­Ó°ÝÃD«Ü­«­n¡A¦]¬°¤¤¥¡»È¦æ¦b¨M©w¦p¦ó¦^À³ª«»ùÅܰʮɡA¥²¶·¥ý°Ï¤À³y¦¨ª«»ùªi°Êªº­ì¦]¡CÁ|¨Ò»¡©ú¡A³Ìªñ¦³³\¦h©Ò¿×New Keynesian Modelªº¤åÄm¥X²{¡C³oÃþ¼Ò«¬¥HReal Business Cycle Theoryªº¼Ò«¬¬[ºc¬°¥D¡A¥[¤Jª«»ù¦bµu´Áªº»ø©T©Ê¡C¥Ñ©óª«»ùªºµu´Á»ø©T©w¡]ªø´Á«h§_¡^¡A©Ò¥Hµá¤O´¶¦±½u¨Ã«D««ª½¡A²£¥X»Pª«»ù¿±µÈ¦³¤@©wªº¸m´«ªÅ¶¡¡]trade-off¡^¡C±q³o¨Ç¼Ò«¬ªº±Àºt¥X¨Óªº³Ì¾A³f¹ô¬Fµ¦¡A³q±`»{¬°¦pªG¸gÀÙÅé­±Á{ªº¬Odemand shocks¡A¨º»ò´NÀ³¸Ó³z¹L§Q²v½Õ­°¨Ó©è¾Pª«»ù¿±µÈ©Î³q³fºòÁY¡C¬Û¤Ï¦a¡A¦pªG¸gÀÙÅé­±Á{ªº¬Osupply shocks¡A¦p¥Í²£¤Oªº¼W¥[©Î¤U¶^¡A¨º»ò¥¡¦æ¤£»Ý­n¹ï¦¹§@¥X¤ÏÀ³¡C©Ò¥H¡A°Ï¤Àª«»ùªi°Êªº­ì¦]¹ï©ó¥¡¦æªº¨Mµ¦¬Û·í­«­n¡AÁöµM¦b¹ê»Ú¤W¦p¦ó§PÂ_demand shocks»Psupply shocksªº½T¤£¬O®e©öªº¨Æ±¡¡C§A¦pªG¦³¿³½ì¡A¥i¥H¾\ŪClarida,Gali,Gertlerµ¥¤H1999¦~¦bJournal of Economic Literature¤Wªº¤å³¹¡AThe Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective¡C

¦^¨ì§Aªº°ÝÃD¡A­º¥ý¡A¨Ì¾Ú¥xÆW¥¡¦æ©Òµo¥¬ªº¸ê®Æ¨Ó¬Ý¡A®Ö¤ßª«»ù¨Ã¨S¦³¤U¶^¡A§A»¡ªº³q³fºòÁY²{¶H¨Ã¤£¦s¦b¡C²Ä¤G¡A¥t¤@­Óª«»ù«ü¼Ð¡A®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼Æ¡A¬O§e²{¤U¶^ªº²{¶H¡C¦Ü©ó¤U¶^ªº­ì¦]¡A§Ú¦bNO:1798_15ªº¶K¤å¡A¤Þ¥Î¦Û¥Ñ®É³øªº³ø¾É®É¡A¤w¸g»¡±o«Ü²M·¡¡C³y¦¨®ø¶OªÌª«»ù¤U¶^ªº­ì¦]¤§¤@¡A¬O¶i¤f»ù®æ¤U¶^¾É­P¡C¥t¥~¡A«h¬O¥i¥HÂkÃþ¬°supply shocksªº¦]¯À¡A¨Ò¦p©Ð¦a²£¨Ñµ¹¹L³Ñªº½Õ¾ã¡A³q«H¨Æ·~¦]Ävª§¾É­P®Ä²v¼W¥[µ¥¡C³o¨Ç³£¤£¬O¦]¬°³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦]¯À³y¦¨¡A©Ò¥H§Ú»{¬°¥¡¦æ¤£»Ý­n§@¥X¹L«×¦^À³¡C

³\¦h¤H¦b³ø³¹´CÅé¤W¡A«ÅºÙ¥xÆW­±Á{³q³fºòÁY°ÝÃD¡A§Ú¤£¦P·N¡Cª«»ù¤U¶^¡A¤£­È±o¤jÅå¤p©Ç¡C¸gÀپǭì²z§i¶D§Ú­Ì¡Aª«»ùªº½Õ¾ã¡A¤£½×¬O¤W¤É©Î¬O¤U¶^¡A¥u­n¤£¬O¬Fµ¦ªº§á¦±©Ò³y¦¨¡A³£¬O¦³§U©ó¸ê·½¹F¦¨³Ì¨Î¤À°tªº¡C«Ü¥i±¤¡A³\¦h°OªÌ¤@®³°_µ§´N§â¤j¤@ªºªF¦è§Ñ¥ú¥ú¡C§Ú­Ì³£¾Ç¹L¡A·í¼t°ÓªºÃä»Ú¥Í²£¦±½u¥ª²¾®É¡A¤u¸ê¥²¶·¸òµÛ©¹¤U½Õ¾ã¡A¤~¯à¹F¦¨³Ò°Ê¥«³õªº§¡¿Å¡C¤£Åýª«»ù½Õ¾ã¡A¥u¬O´£°ª³Ò°Ê¤Oªº¦¨¥»¡A¨ÃÅý³Q¶±¥Îªº¤u¤H¼Æ¥Ø­°§C¡A¥¢·~²v´£°ª¡C¥H¥xÆW¥Ø«e±¡ªp¨Ó¬Ý¡A§Úı±oª«»ùªº½Õ¾ã¬O«Ü¦nªº²{¶H¡C§Ú­ÌÀ³¸Ó·í¾á¤ßªº¡A¤Ï­Ë¬O»ù®æµLªk¦Û¥Ñ½Õ¾ã¡A¦Ó¾É­P¸ê·½µLªk­«·s§@³Ì¾A¤À°t¡C

·íµM¡A¦³¨Ç¸gÀپǮa¤£¬Û«H¸gÀÙÅé¨ã¦³¦Û§Ú½Õ¾ãªº¥\¯à¡C¥L­Ì³Ì±`Á|ªº¨Ò¤l¡A´N¬O¬ü°ê¦b1930¦~¥Nªº¤j¿½±ø¡C³Ì¦³¦Wªº¨Ò¤l¡A´N¬O¸gÀپǮaClowerªº¸ÑÄÀ¡C¦ý¬O¡A§Y¨Ï¬OClower¡A¤]»{¬°¤j¿½±ø¬O¬Û·í¯S®íªº±¡ªp¡A¦b¤@¯ëª¬ªp¤U¡A¸gÀÙÅéÁÙ¬O¨ã¦³¦Û§Ú½Õ¾ãªº¥\¯à¡C¦b¤j¿½±ø®É´Á¡A²£¥X»Pª«»ù«ùÄò¤U¶^¡C§Ú½¾\¤F¤@¤U³o¤@´Áªº¸gÀپǤH¡AÁöµM¥xÆWªº®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼Æ¦b¤Q¤ë¥÷¤U¶^1.7%¡A¦ý¬O¥xÆW¦b2002¦~²Ä¤T©u¦³4.8%ªº¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø²v¡A¤u·~¥Í²£«ü¼Æ¦b¤Q¤ë¥÷¼Wªø7.4%¡A³o¤£¬O³q³fºòÁYªº¼x¥ü¡C

¤ñ¸û¥O§Ú¾á¤ßªº¡A¬O¥xÆWªºª÷¿ÄÅé¨t¡C³q³fºòÁYªº­«­n«e´£¡A´N¬O»È¦æÅé¨t¤£°·¥þ¡C¬ü°ê¦b1930¦~¥Nªº¤j¿½±ø¡A¥H¤Î¤é¥»ªñ¦~ªº´º®ð°I°h¡A³£¬Oµo¥Í¦bª÷¿ÄÅé¨t¥X²{°ÝÃD¤§«á¡C³o¨Ç°ê®aªºª÷¿ÄÅé¨t¦b¦M¾÷¤§«e³£¸g¾ú¹L¹L«×ªº¿±µÈ¡A¾É­P»È¦æ¸ê²£«~½èªº´c¤Æ¡C¦b´º®ð¤W¤É®É¡A³o¨ÇÃa±bÁÙ¤£®e©ö¬Ý¥X¨Ó¡Cµ¥¨ì´º®ðµy¦³´c¤Æ¡A»È¦æ·~´N¸òµÛ¥X²{¦M¾÷¡Cª÷¿ÄÅé¨tªº¦M¾÷¡A¤S³s±a¾É­P¥ø·~µLªkÀò±o¸êª÷¡A§ë¸ê»P®ø¶O´î¤Ö¡A³y¦¨´º®ð¶i¤@¨B´c¤Æ¡]¥i¥H°Ñ¦ÒBen Bernankeªº§@«~¡^¡C¥xÆW¦b1990¦~¶}©ñ·s»È¦æ³]¥ß¡A¥Ñ©óª÷¿ÄºÊºÞ¤£¨¬¡A¦A¥[¤W¦­´Áªº¹L«×¿±µÈ¡A¥H¤Î¥ø·~¶°¹Î±N»È¦æ·í§@¬O¦Û¤v¥ø·~¶°¹ÎªºÄw¸ê¾÷ºc¡]¦p¤ý¥É¶³ªº¤¤¿³»È¦æ¡^¡A§b±b°ÝÃD¤w¸g¬Û·íÄY­«¡A´X¦¸³£¤w¸g­±Á{Ãzµo¦M¾÷ªºÃä½t¡C¦pªG«ó¬F©²¤£§´µ½³B²zª÷¿Ä¾÷ºc¡A§Ú¬Û«H¡A³Ì«á¨M©w¥L¯à§_³s¥ôªº¦]¯À¡A¤£·|¬O¥~¥æ¬Fµ¦©Î¬O¨â©¤Ãö«Y¡A¦Ó¬O¥L¬O§_¦³¯à¤O§´µ½³B²zª÷¿Ä¾÷ºcªº°ÝÃD¡A¥H¤Î¦p¦óÁ×§KÅýª÷¿Ä¾÷ºcªº´c¤Æ©ì«±¥xÆWªº¸gÀÙ¡C


NO:1798_23
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/24 02:48
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To Riete¡A

ÁÂÁ§Aªº¦^µª¡C©Ò¥H®Ú¾Ú§A¦bNO:1798_13ªº¦^¤å¡A§A¤£»{¬°ªF¨È¥Ø«e¦³³q³fºòÁYªº²{¶H¡C³Ì¦h¡A¥u¯à»¡¦³¼ç¦bªº¦MÀI¡A¦ý¨º¬O§A¹ï¥¼¨Óªº§PÂ_¡A¤£¬O¥Ø«e¹ê»Úµo¥Íªº±¡ªp¡C

§Ú°O±o§A¦³¤@½g³o¤è­±ªº¤å³¹¡A¥i§_¶K¥X¨ÓÅý¤j®a¤À¨É°Q½×¡C


NO:1798_24
RIETI ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 12:41
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

HitCat

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¤é¥»¡B¤¤°ê¡B·s¥[©Y¡A¤µ«á¥xÆW¡B®õ°ê¡B°¨¨Ó¦è¨È¡B¦L¥§¥i¯à¦b¤@¬q®É¶¡¤§¤º§e²{©úÅ㪺
¯gª¬¡A¬O³B¦bµo¥Íªº²Ä¤@¶¥¬q¡C

¨S¿ù¡A¬O¹ï¥¼¨Óªº§PÂ_¡A«Ø¥ß¦bÅÞ¿è±À²z¥H¤Î³¡¤À°ê®a¨Æ¹ê¤§¤Wªº§PÂ_»P±À½×¡C

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NO:1798_25
NOBODY ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 17:10
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

TO Everybody:

«D±`°ª¿³¦U¦ì¯à¦b¥»ª©²`¤J°Q½×³o­Ó°ÝÃD¡A
¤p§Ì¤µ¦­¤~¦b¸ò¦P¨Æ°Q½×¡A¥xÆW¦bª«»ù¤£Â_¤U¶^ªº±¡ªp¤§¤U¡A
¦p¦óÄ~Äòºû«ù¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø¡H
«ôŪ¤F¦U¦ìªº¤å³¹¤§«á¡AÀò¯q¨}¦h¡A¦ý¤´¦³ºÃ°Ý¡A¦b¦¹¦V¦U¦ì½Ð¯q¡C

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¦pªG§A¨ìµæ¥«³õ¨«¤@¾D¡A´N·|µo²{¹L¥h¤@¥ó½æ190¤¸ªº¦çªA¡A
²{¦b¤w¸gÅܦ¨¤@¥ó100¤¸¡C
³oºØ²{¶H´¶¹M¦s¦b©ó¦UºØ²£«~¤§¤¤¡C
¦pªG³oºØª«»ù¤U­°ªº±¡ªp«ùÄò¤U¥h¡A¦Ó¥B¹M¤Î¦U¦æ¦U·~¡A
«hÅãµM¥xÆWªº°ê¥Á©Ò±o¥²±N­°§C¡A°£«D¨C­Ó°ê¥ÁÁʶRªº²£«~¼Æ¶q¼W¥[¡C
±µ¤U¨Ó³f¹ôªº¬y³q¶q´N¥i¯à´î¤Ö¡A³o¼Ë¤@¨Ó¬O¤£¬O´N¬O³q³fºòÁY¡H

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NO:1798_26
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 19:06
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To Nobody,

Welcome!


NO:1798_27
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 19:17
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To Riete,

I read what your wrote on this web-site, but most of them are research outlines, not concrete and organized arguments. Could you please give us a summary of your arguments in 2000 characters? That would be helpful to most of us. Thank you!


NO:1798_28
RIETI ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 21:51
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

What 2000 characters?
Well, it is my hornor to have a request from you. But dont you think some
experts on this we-site know much more than me. I am only an amature expert!

NO:1798_29
Äõ¶§¿ô·à¹Î ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 22:40
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

<<<<¥xÆW¦³¥i¯à¦b¨É¨ü§Cª«»ùªº¦P®É¡Aºû«ù°ê¥Á©Ò±oªº¦¨ªø¶Ü¡H

¥u¦³²£·~¤É¯Å¤@³~¡A³o¬O­Ó¥@¬É¸gÀÙ§ø¡C

¨D·s¨DÅܨD°ª«~½è¡C


NO:1798_30
RIETI ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/25 23:08
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

°ÝÃD¬O¡G
·s²£·~©Î¬O´À¥N©Ê²£·~¤W­y¹D©Ò»Ý­nªá¶Oªº®É¶¡¡A¥i¯à°l»°¤£¤W²£·~¥~²¾©Ò»Ýªº®É¶¡¡C

NO:1798_31
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/26 01:23
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To Riete,

I mean 2000 words.

By the way, who are those experts you refered to?


NO:1798_32
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/26 01:28
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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¡u¤£¬O§Ú¤£»{¬°ªF¨È¥Ø«e¨S¦³³q³fºòÁY¦M¾÷¡AªF¨È¨Æ¹ê¤W¤w¸g¦³³q³fºòÁY²{¶H¡A¹³¬O­»´ä¡B¤é¥»¡B¤¤°ê¡B·s¥[©Y¡A¤µ«á¥xÆW¡B®õ°ê¡B°¨¨Ó¦è¨È¡B¦L¥§¥i¯à¦b¤@¬q®É¶¡¤§¤º§e²{©úÅ㪺¯gª¬¡A¬O³B¦bµo¥Íªº²Ä¤@¶¥¬q¡C¡v

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NO:1798_33
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/26 02:45
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_34
RIETI ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/26 18:53
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_35
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/27 07:52
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To «n¹Å¥Í

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NO:1798_36
NOBODY ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/27 08:55
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_37
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/27 08:58
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³o­Ó½×ÂI©¿²¤¨â¥ó¨Æ±¡¡C²Ä¤@¡A³q³f¿±µÈ«üºÙªº¬O«ùÄòªºª«»ù¤Wº¦¡C¦pªG¥u¬Oª«»ù¤@¦¸©Êªº½Õ¾ã¡A¤£½×¬O¤Ï¬M¥Í²£¦¨¥»©Î¬O¨Ñ»ÝÅܰʡA¤£¯àºÙ¬°³q³f¿±µÈ¡C¥Ûªo»ù®æ¤W¤É¡A¥u·|³y¦¨°Ó«~»ù®æ¸òµÛ¤@¦¸©Êªº½Õ¾ã¡A¤£·|³y¦¨«ùÄòªº³q³f¿±µÈ¡C§Ú¥²¶·Âç²M¡u¤@¦¸©Ê½Õ¾ã¡vªº·N¸q¡C¥Ûªo»ù®æ¤W¤É¤Ï¬M¦bª«»ù½Õ¾ã¤W¡A¬O»Ý­n®É¶¡ªº¡C¦pªG½Õ¾ã¬O³¡¤À¥B½wºC¡A¦bÆ[¹îÂI¤W´N·|§e²{¬°¦h¦¸ªº»ù®æ¤Wº¦¡C§Ú«üºÙªº¤@¦¸©Ê½Õ¾ã¡A¬O«ü·í¨S¦³¨ä¥L·sªºshocksµo¥Í¡A¦ÓÅý»ù®æªº¶Ç»¼¹Lµ{½Õ¾ã§¹¦¨¤§«á¡A°Ó«~»ù®æ´N¤£·|¦AÄ~Äò¼W¥[¡C´«¥y¸Ü»¡¡A­nÅý¥Ûªo¦M¾÷¥i¥H¤Þµo³q³f¿±µÈ¡A¥²¶·¨C¹j´X­Ó¤ë´N¨Ó¤@¦¸­ìªo»ù®æ¤Wº¦¡A¦ý¬O³o»P¯u¹ê±¡ªp¤£²Å¡C

²Ä¤G¡A³Ì·sªº¬ã¨s¡A¨Ã¤£¤ä«ù¥Ûªo¦M¾÷¬O³y¦¨³q³f¿±µÈªº­ì¦]¡C§A¥i¥H½¾\Ben Bernanke»PLutz Kilianªº¬ã¨s¡C³o¨Ç§@ªÌ¬ã¨s¬ü°ê¦b¨â¦¸¥Ûªo¦M¾÷¤§¶¡ªº³q³f¿±µÈ¡A¥L­Ìªº¹êÃÒ¬ã¨s»P¼ÒÀÀ«ü¥X¡A¦pªG¤£¬OFED¹L«×¼eÃPªº³f¹ô¬Fµ¦¡A¥ú¬O¥Ûªo¦M¾÷¡A¨Ã¤£·|³y¦¨¬ü°ê¦b³o¬q®É´Áªº°ª³q³f¿±µÈ²v¡C

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Á¿¤F¤@°ï¡A§A¤@©wÁÙ¬O«Ü·Qª¾¹D¡A½±ºÓ³ÇªºÆ[ÂI¨ì©³¦³¨S¦³³Q´¶¹M±µ¨ü¡C§Úªº§PÂ_¤èªk«Ü²³æ¡A¬Ý¬Ý¥Lªº¤å³¹µoªí¦b­þ¸Ì¡C½±ºÓ³Çªº¤å³¹¡A¦³µoªí¦bEconomica, the Economic Journal, American Economic Review, International Economic Review, Journal of money, Credit and Banking¡C¦pªG³o¨ÇµÛ§@ÁÙ¨S¦³¿ìªk»¡ªA§A¥h­«µø¥LªºÆ[ÂI¡A§Ú¹ê¦b¤]¤£ª¾¹D¸Ó»¡¨Ç¤°»ò¤F¡CIMF³Ìªñ¦³¤@½gWorking Paper¡A½Í½×ªº¬OIMF staff©Òµo®iªºmonetary approach to the balance of payments¡A¶}ÀY²Ä¤@¬q´N´£¨ìS. C. Tsiang¡]½±ºÓ³Ç¡^¹ï¸Ó²z½×ªº°^Äm¡C­õ¤H¤é¥H»·¡A¨å«¬¦b¦g©õ¡C

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NO:1798_38
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/27 09:02
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_39
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/27 09:06
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To Nobody,

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NO:1798_40
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/28 06:31
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_41
NOBODY ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/28 08:12
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_48
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NO:1798_52
CW ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 04:11
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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¥D­p³BÀ³¸Ó¦³ ¥t¥~´N¬O¶i¬ü°ê©x¤èºô¯¸¬d ¥L­Ì¦³°ê»Ú¤u¸ê¤ñ¸û §Ú¤]´¿¬d¹L

¥xÆWªº»s³y·~¨ü¶±­û¤u»P¤u¸êª¬ªp ªñ¨â¦~
y2000 employment:2467 (thousands), avgerage wages: $NT 38792
y2001 employment:2356 (thousands), avgerage wages: $NT 38277

y2002 Jan. employment:2291 (thousands), avgerage wages: $NT 53284
Feb. employment:2287 (thousands), avgerage wages: $NT 49883
Mar. employment:2294 (thousands), avgerage wages: $NT 34759

¨ü¶±­û¤u¤@ª½¤U¶^ ¤u¸ê«h¦³¤É¦³­°

½Ð°Ý¦³¤H­n¥h WEAI (Jan 9-12, 2003) ªº¸g»Ú·|ij¶Ü?


NO:1798_53
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 10:13
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

Jana :


GNP=C+I+G+X-M


C=®ø¶O°] I=§ë¸ê°] G=¬F©²®ø¶O¤ä¥X X-M=²b¿é¥X

GDP=GNP-°ê¥~­n¯À©Ò±o²bÃB


·í°ê¥~­n¯À©Ò±o²bÃB¬°­t®ÉGDP´N·|¼W¥[

NO:1798_54
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 10:41
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

82 ¦~ 83 ¦~ 84 ¦~ 85 ¦~ 86¦~ 87¦~ 88¦~ 89¦~ 90¦~ 91¦~

1.¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø²v(%) 7.0 7.1 6.42 6.10 6.68 4.57 5.42 5.86 -2.18 ¹w´ú
2.GNP(»õ¬ü¤¸) 2,286 2,482 2,691 2,836 2,933 2,692 2,905 3,139 2,868 ¹w´ú
3.¨C¤HGNP(¬ü¤¸) 10,964 11,802 12,686 13,260 13,592 12,360 13235 14188 12,876 ¹w´ú
4.°ê¥ÁÀx»W²v(%) 28.8 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.0 26.1 25.4 24.0 ¹w´ú
1.®ø¶OªÌª«»ù¦~¼W²v 2.9 4.1 3.7 3.1 0.9 1.7 0.2 1.3 -0.01 10¤ë
2.Ä»°âª«»ù¦~¼W²v 2.5 2.2 7.4 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 -4.5 1.8 -1.3 10¤ë
3.¶i¤fª«»ù¦~¼W²v(«ö·s¥x¹ô­p»ù) 4.7 5.1 10.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.7 -4.1 4.6 -1.2 10¤ë
4.¥X¤fª«»ù¦~¼W²v(«ö·s¥x¹ô­p»ù) 5.2 0.6 6.9 1.7 2.1 5.6 -8.5 -0.9 0.3 10¤ë
1.¤u·~¥Í²£¦~¼W²v(%) 3.9 6.6 4.7 2.0 7.4 2.6 7.7 7.4 -7.3 10¤ë

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NO:1798_55
Simon ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 17:42
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H
¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H

I think yes.

³o­ÓÃD¥Ø«Ü¦³·N«ä. §Úªº¬Ýªk¬O¥xÆW¥ý¶i¤@¨B°µµ²ºcÁA¸Ñ.¤£ºÞ¬O±q³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹©Î±q CPI¤u¸ê§Q²v. ¨¦¯«¥Sªº»¡ªk:
>>>³q³fºòÁY¬°¡uª«»ù¡B¤u¸ê¡B§Q²v²Î²Î¤U¶^¡v¬OÁ`Åé¸gÀÙ²{¶HªºªG
>>>¦Ó¨ä­ì¦]¬O§ë¸ê¹L¤Ö,¦³®Ä»Ý¨D¤£¨¬¥Hºû«ù¥R¤À´N·~ªº©Ò±o¤ô·Ç.
>>>¦Ó§ë¸êªº¦h¤Ö,¤S¨ú¨M©ó¸ê¥»Ãä»Ú®Ä²v,¦Ó§Q²v«h¬O¤@ºØ¬y°Ê©Ê°¾¦n¤Ø«×ªºªí>>>¼x,»P³f¹ôªº¨Ñµ¹¶q.

±qÁ`Åé¸gÀÙ²{¶H»P³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¨âÃ䪺»¡©ú´N«Ü§¹¾ã.¤]«Ü«K©ó¨âªÌ double check.

¦b¸ÑŪ¡¨ªí­±¡¨ªº¼Æ¦r®É, À³¸Ó¹ï¼Æ¦r­I«áªºµ²ºc ªu­²¥[¥HÀËÅç¤~¯à±o¨ì¤@­Ó¸û§¹¾ãªº­±»ª. §Ú­Ó¤H¥H¬°, §â´X­Ó®t²§¦]¯À½Õ¾ã«á ¥xÆW½T¹ê¤w¸g³q³fºòÁY.

³f¹ôÆ[ÂI:
³f¹ô·íµM¬O¤@­Ó³Ì«áÁ`Å骺¿Å¶q¡A§Ú´£¨â­Ó factor:
1. ¦pªG¥¡¦æªº ³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹M2 ¦~¼W²v¥Ø¼Ð°Ï , ªø´Á¥H¨Ó¤@ª½»·¤j©ó¸ò²z½×¤Wªº CPI¦~¼W²v + GDP¦~¼W²v ¡A¸ò¬ü°ê ¸ò¼Ú¬w¸ò¤é¥»¤ñ¸û°_¨Ó³£¼eÃP¦h¦h.³o¤­¤»¦~¨ÓÁÙ¦n¤@ÂI, ¹L¥h§ó¬Oªø´Á¶Ã·d, ¤~¦³½±¸g°ê¥½´Á«\°êµØ¥¡¦æ®É»s³y¥X¨Óªº¤jªwªj¸gÀÙ. ¥xÆW¥¡¦æªø´Á¥H¨Óªº³f¹ô«D¤¤¥ß¥»¨­´N¦³°¾¦V»s³y³q³f¿±º¦ ©µ½w³q³fºòÁY³t«×ªº¨t²Î©Ê¯S½è. ¦ý¬Oªø´Á³o¼Ëªº¬Fµ¦¨«¦V²{¦b¤w¸g¨«¨ì³Ì«áÀrÆj§Þ½aªº¦a¨B. §Ú¹ï³o­Ó«Ü¾á¤ß, ¥ý¥Hµu´Á¨Ó¬Ý ±q¤µ¦~¤W¥b¦~ªºM2 ¦~¼W²v4.26 ­°¨ì¤Q¤ë¥÷ªº 2.52 , ¸ò«e¤@¦~«×ªº5.9 ¬Û¸û, ³o¬O¤Ö¨£ªº­°´T.

¥H¤¤´ÁÆ[ÂIªº­Ó§O°ò´Á¤ñ¸û, ±q 1998 ªº 8~9% ­°¨ì¤µ¦~¤@¨ì¤Q¤ëªº 2.52%~4.6%, ³oºØÁͶլ۷í©úÅã.
¦A¥H¤¤´ÁM2 ªºÁ`¼W´T»PCPI¦~¼W²v + GDP¦~¼W²v¤ñ¸û, 1998 ¦~ 6¤ë´Á©³ ªºM2 15.6¥ü , 2002 6¤ë´Á©³ ªºM2 20¥ü , ¥|¦~¶¡¼W´T 28.21%, ¤ÏÆ[»P¥H·í¦~·s¥x¹ô»ù®æªí¥Üªº GDP, 1998 ¦~ªº 8.938¥ü ¨ì¤µ¦~ªº 9.686¥ü ¥|¦~¶¡¼W´T¬° 8.37%. ¦ÓCPI ±q 1998 ¨ì¤µ¦~ Á`¼W´T ¬° 3.19% . ¥|¦~¶¡ªº ¡§¶WÃB³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹²v¡¨ ¬° 16.65% (28.21%-8.37%-3.19%) . ªø´Á¶WÃB³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹ªº¥xÆWÂàÅܬ°¨ì¤µ¦~¨ì¤µ¦~¤U¥b¦~¨Ó 7¤ë ¨ì10¤ëªºM2¦~¼W²v 2.22%~~2.74%. ³o¤w¸g§C©ó CPI¦~¼W²v + GDP¦~¼W²v¤F. ³o¬O¤@«D±`­«¤jªºÂà§é¤F. ¦pªG¦³¤H­n»¡¦W¥Ø³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹ÁÙ¨S±¼¨ì­t¼Æ ©Ò¥H¤£¯àºÙ¥xÆW¤w¸g¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY, ¨º»ò½Ð¦A¬Ý¥t¥~¤@­Ó¦]¯À.

2. M2 ³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹ªí²{¦bª÷¿Ä¾÷ºcªºbalance sheet¦s©ñ´Ú ¨âÃä. ²³©Ò¬Òª¾ªºª÷¿Ä¾÷ºc NPL¹O´Á©ñ´Ú¸òÆ[¹î¦W³æ, ¦pªG·Ó°]¬F³¡ª÷¿Ä§ï­²ªº 258 ¤]´N¬O¨â¦~¤º¹F¨ì¨Ì·Ó°ê»Ú¼Ð·Çªº¹O´Á©ñ´Ú 5% ¸ê¥»¾A¨¬²v¦û­·ÀI¸ê²£ªº 8%, ¸Õ°Ý, ¯u¹êªºM2Á`¶q À³¸Ó­n±¼¨ì¦h¤Ö? ´N°²³]ª÷¿Ä­««Ø°òª÷¹wºâ¥ßªk°|¯à°÷³q¹L, pump in ¤@¥ü¤­¦Ê»õ·s¥x¹ô, ³o·í¤¤ÁÙ¦³¤@¤j¬q½T©wªº¯Ê¤f: ¤j¶µªº¥]¬A a-»È¦æ²{¶¥¬q¤@¥ü¤»¤d»õ NPL»Pª÷¿Ä­««Ø°òª÷¤@¥ü¤­¦Ê»õªº®tÃB, b-«OÀI¤½¥q¹ê»Ú·Ç³Æª÷¤£¨¬ªº³¡¥÷, c-­x¤½±Ð°h¼¾ unfunded pension liability . ¤£½T©w¦ý¬O¥i¯àµo¥Íªº ¨Ò¦p: ¦pªG¥xÆW¤£¯à§â¶×²v.§â­û¤u°tªÑÂà¶O¥Î.¤@¦¸©Ê½Õ¾ã, ,¨Ï±oªÑ¥«¥~¸ê¦]¬Ý²H IT²£·~«ùÄò²b¶×¥X,©Î¥xÆW¥Á¶¡¦]¹w´Á¤ß²z¥~¹ô¦s´Ú¿E¼W, M 2¤S·|¤U­°.

¥H³f¹ôÆ[ÂI³æ³æ¥H¤W¨â¶µ, ªí­±ªº M2¼Æ¦r¦­¤w³zÅS¹ê»Ú¤w¸g³q³fºòÁYªº°T¸¹.§Y¨Ï¬F©²¤½¶Å¼W¥[, §Y¨Ï¸ê²£ÃÒ¨é¤Æ, §Y¨Ï¥[³t¥X°â©xªÑ, ³Ì«áªº M2¿Å¶q«ü¼ÐÁÙ¬O«ÜÃø§ïµ½. ¥xÆW°ê¤ºªº¹ê½è¸gÀÙ¬¡°Ê¤£¯à¬¡µ¸°_¨Ó¤°»ò³£¬O°²ªº.

¦A¨Ó±qÁ`Åé¸gÀÙ²{¶Hªº CPI ¤u¸ê §Q²v¬Ý, ¥xÆW¨Ã«D¥þµM±µªñ ¡§¦³®Ä²v¥«³õ¡¨.ÄY®æ»¡¨Ó¬O¡¨¤G¤¸¸gÀÙ¡¨, ¤@Ãä¦Û¥Ñ¥«³õ»ù®æ¤Ï¬M¨³³t ¦ý¬O¥t¤@Ãä¹èÀYÃbÂ_. CPIª«»ù¤W¥u­n¦³¤½¥Î¨Æ·~°µ°Ñ¦Ò«ü¼Ðªº¥Ûªo ¹q¤O ±Ð¨|¤@ª½»ù®æ»ø¤Æ©~°ª¤£¤U. ¤u¸ê¦b­x¤½±Ð³¡ªù¥ç¦p¦¹ §Q²v¤]¬O°ª§Q®t. ³oºØ ¡§¨î«×·c¨ú¡¨ªº »ù®æ»ø¤Æ³¡ªù ¦b²{¶¥¬qªº¥xÆW¤ñ­«¤£¤p, ³o¤]©µ½w¤F¾ãÅé»ù®æ¤U¶^³t«× ²H¤Æ³q³fºòÁYªº²{¶H.³o¸ò«e­z½×¤Î M2ªø´Á¶WÃB³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹ªº¼vÅT¤@¼Ë, ¥i¬O¤]¤@¼ËµL¥H¬°Ä~ ³£¨ì¤FÂà§éÂI. .®ø¶OªÌª«»ù¦~¼W²v±q1988 ªº1.7¨ì¥h¦~ªº ­t0.01.²£·~¥~²¾¤¤°ê¥[­« ¨Ñ¹L©ó¨D ¥ø·~§Q¼í¤U·Æ¶±¥Î­û¤u´î¤Ö©Ò±o­°§C¦³®Ä»Ý¨D¶V¤£¨¬ §ë¸ê¶V¤Ö ±qCPI ¤u¸ê ¨ì§Q²v¾ã­Ó³£¤@°_©Ô¤U¨Ó. ¥Ø«e¬°¤î³£Á٬ݤ£¨ì¦³§áÂ઺¸ñ¶H.¬F©²¸ò¥ø·~¬Æ¦Ü¾Ç¬É³£¨S¦³¯u¥¿§ï©¶©öÂ᪺±j¤jÁn­µ, ¥u¦³±j½Õª÷¿Ä§ï­²«o¹ï¹ê½è¸gÀÙ¥~²¾¤¤°êªº³¡¥÷¤õ¤W¥[ªo, ¹ï¬F©²¥»¨­¹wºâ¦Ê¤À¤§¤»¤Q¥H¤Wªá¦b»ù®æ»ø¤Æªº¤H¨Æ¶O¥Î, ÄY­«­­¨î¤F¤½³¡ªù¦]À³³q³fºòÁYÂX¤j§ë¸êªº¯à¤O¤]«å´k¤£§ï­²³B²z.

¾ãÅé¦Ó¨¥, ¥xÆW¥Á¶¡¹ê½è¸gÀÙ¬¡°ÊºÆ¨g²¾©¹¤¤°ê, ¤½³¡ªù­I­t¨I­«Ãe¤j¤H¨Æ¶O¥Î. ¤£¯à§áÂà³o¨âÂIªº¸Ü, nobody ©Ò»¡
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NO:1798_56
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 19:11
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

«Ü·PÁÂSimon¥Sªº¶q¤Æ¤ÀªR
¦ý­Ó¤H¦]¦b²£·~¬É´X¤Q¦~¸ûÃö¤ß¤U¦C¼Æ¾Ú
                                       89           90         91

1.©T©w§ë¸ê¦¨ªø²v(%) 8.6 -20.6 ¹w´ú -2.4
§ë 2.¥Á¶¡©T©w§ë¸ê¦¨ªø²v(%) 15.7 - 29.2 ¹w´ú -0.3
¸ê 3.®Ö­ã¹´¥~§ë¸ê¦~¼W²v(%) 79.8 -32.6 10¤ë 54.8
4.¸ê¥»³]³Æ¶i¤f¼W¥[²v(%) 34.3 -31.6 10¤ë 1.8


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NO:1798_57
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 21:48
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

GDPª½±µ´N¦³¼Æ¾Ú¡A86-91¦~§ó¦³©u¸ê®Æ¡A¨ú¸Ô²Óªº©u¸ê®Æ¨Ó¬Ý¦n¤F¡C

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86--3426,3318,3464,3241
87--3071,2951,3025,3221
88--3215,3157,3330,3412
89--3539,3423,3588,3435
90--3364,3022,3067,3168
91--3144,3020,3208,¹w´ú

µ²ªG¬O¦³­°¦³¤É.


NO:1798_58
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/29 23:25
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To ¨¦¯«,

(¦^À³1798-53)¼g§¹¤½¦¡¤§«á¡A
±µ¤U¨Ó¬O¤£¬OÀ³¸Ó¥Î¹ê¨Òªí¹F©p·Q»¡ªº¤º®e¡C
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To CW,
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NO:1798_59
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/30 00:44
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

Jana :
¥xÆW¬O®ü®q«¬¶T©ö°ê®a¥ÎGDP¤ÀªR
¥xÆW¸gÀÙ²{¶H©¹©¹·|²£¥Í¸û¤jªº»~®t
°£«D¹³°ª¬ì§Þ¤j³°«¬°ê®a¶i¥X¤f»ù®æ
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¬Û¤Ïªº¥xÆWÀ³¥HGNP-GDP§@¬°¬F©²©Û°Óªº°Ñ¦Ò

NO:1798_60
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/30 01:11
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

§ó¥¿:

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¦]¬°GDP¤ÎGNP¤£¥i¯à¬°­t

NO:1798_61
Jana ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/30 09:02
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¦^µªNobody¦bNo1798_41ªº¶K¤å¡C

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¸gÀپǤW¦³©Ò¿×ªºBalassa-Samuelson effect¡C¥¦ªº·N¸q¬O¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø§Ö³tªº°ê®a¡A¤]·|¦P®É­±Á{°ê¤º¤@¯ëª«»ùªº¤Wº¦¡A¤]´N¬O¹ê½è¶×²vªº¤W¤É¡C²z¥Ñ¦b©ó¡A°²¦p¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø¤Ï¬Mªº¬O»s³y³¡ªùÃä»Ú³Ò°Ê¥Í²£²vªº´£°ª¡A¨º»ò»s³y³¡ªùªº¤u¸ê¤]·|¸òµÛ´£°ª¡]®Ú¾Ú¹ê½è¤u¸êµ¥©óÃä»Ú³Ò°Ê¥Í²£²v¡^¡C¨ä¥L³¡ªù¡AÁöµMÃä»Ú¥Í²£²vªº¦¨ªø¤£§Ö¡A¦ý¬O­±¹ï»s³y³¡ªù¤u¸êªº´£°ª¡A¤]¥²¶·´£°ª¸Ó³¡ªùªº¤u¸ê¥H§l¤Þ³Ò°Ê¤O¡C¤u¸ê´£°ª¤Ï¬M¨ì°Ó«~¦¨¥»¡A´N·|¾É­P«D¶T©ö³¡ªùªº°Ó«~»ù®æ´£°ª¡A©Ò¥H¤@¯ëª«»ù¤]´N¸òµÛ´£°ª¡C¤@¯ë¨ì¤u·~°ê®a®È¦æªº¤H­Ì³£·|µo²{¡A³o¨Ç°ê®aªºªA°È·~»ù®æ³£«Ü¶Q¡A´N¬O³o­Ó¹D²z¡C¤u·~°ê®aªº»s³y³¡ªù°Ó«~¥Ñ©ó»ù®æ¬°°ê»Ú¨M©w¡A©Ò¥H¤Ï¦Ó¤£·|¦³¤Ó¤jªº®t²§¡C

¥ÎBalassa-Samuelson effect¨Ó¬Ý¤¤°ê¤j³°¡C°²¦p¤¤°ê©x¤èµo¥¬ªº¦¨ªø¼Æ¦r¬O¥¿½Tªº¡A¤]´N¬O¸gÀÙ¦³°ª«×ªº¦¨ªø²v¡A¨º»ò®Ú¾ÚBalassa-Samuelson effect¡A¤¤°ê¤]À³¸Ó­±Á{ª«»ù»P¤u¸êªº´¶¹M¤W¤É¡A¤H¥Á¹ôªº¹ê½è¶×²v¤]À³¸Ó¤É­È¡C¦ý¬O«Ü©_©Ç¦a¬O¡A¤¤°êªºª«»ù«o©¹¤U¶^¡C¤¤°ê¦b1998-1999¦~¤§¶¡¦³©úÅ㪺ª«»ù¤U¶^²{¶H¡A³Ìªñ¸gÀپǤHªº¸ê®Æ¤]Åã¥Üª«»ù¨S¦³¤W¤É¸ñ¶H¡C¤¤°ê©x¤è©Ó»{¦³³q³fºòÁYªººÃ¼{¡A³o¥i¥H±q¤¤°ê¸gÀپǪ̦b³o¬q®É´Á¹ï¦¹ªº±K¶°°Q½×¬Ý¥X¡C§Úªº§PÂ_¬O¡A¤¤°ê©x¤èªº¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø¼Æ¦r³QÄé¤ô¡C¯u¹êªº±¡ªp¡A¤ñ¸û¥i¯à¬O¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø¥u¦³2-3­Ó¦Ê¤ÀÂI¡A¦Ó¥Bª«»ù«ùÄò¤U¶^·í¤¤¡]¤§«e¥Í²£¹L³Ñ©Ò³y¦¨¡^¡CThomas Rawski¦ô­p¤¤°ê¦b1998-99ªº¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø²v¥u¦³2%¥ª¥k¡A³oÁÙ¨S¦³¦©±¼¤H¤fªº¦¨ªø²v¡C


NO:1798_62
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/30 09:03
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

©êºp¡A¤S·d¿ù¤F¡C¤W¤å§@ªÌ¬°§Ú¡C

NO:1798_63
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/11/30 09:11
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_65
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NO:1798_66
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NO:1798_68
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NO:1798_69
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NO:1798_70
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NO:1798_71
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NO:1798_72
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NO:1798_73
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¥Lªí¥Ü¡A¥xÆW¥h¦~¥þ¦~®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼ÆÁöµM¤U¶^0.1%¡A¤µ¦~¥i¯à¤]·|¤U¶^¶W¹L0.2%¡A¤£¹L¡A³o¨â¦~¤º¦³¦n´X­Ó¤ëª«»ù«ü¼Æ¤´¬O¤Wº¦ªº¡A±q³o¤@ÂI¨Ó¬Ý¡A¥xÆW³q³fºòÁYªº¸ñ¶H¨Ã¤£¬O¤Ó©úÅã¡C

¶d¬±¬Ã¶i¤@¨B«ü¥X¡A®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼Æ¥]§t·sÂA½­ªG³½¤¶¡A®e©ö¨ü¨ì¤Ñ­ÔÅܤƼvÅT¡A¦Ó¯à·½«h¤£¬O¨C­Ó°ê®a³£¦³¥Í²£¡A»ù®æªi°Ê¤£¬O¬F©²©Ò¯à±±¨î¡A¦]¦¹¡A­Y¥H­ç°£·sÂA½­ªG³½¤¶©M¯à·½ªº¡w®Ö¤ßª«»ù¡x¨ÓÆ[¹î¡A¥i¥Hµo²{¤µ¦~¤G¤ë¥H¨Ó®Ö¤ßª«»ù³£«ùÄò¤Wº¦¡A¤Q¤ë¥÷®Ö¤ßª«»ùº¦´TÁÙ¹F¨ì0.85% ¡A¦]¦¹¡A¥xÆW³q³fºòÁYªº¸ñ¶H¤£¬O¤Ó©úÅã¡C

¶d¬±¬Ã»¡¡A¥h¦~¥H¨Ó¦æ¬F°|´N«D±`­«µøª«»ù¬O§_«ùÄò¤U¶^ªº±¡ªp¡A¤¤¥¡»È¦æÁ`µô´^²a«n¤]«D±`­«µø³o­Ó°ÝÃD¡A¥xÆWÀ³¸Ó¤£¦Ü©óµo¥ÍÄY­«ªº³q³fºòÁY¡C 911105


NO:1798_74
µ¡ ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 05:44
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

§Ú»{¬°¥xÆW¥Ø«e¨S¦³³q³fºòÁYªº²{¶H¡C ®Ú¾Ú¤¤¥¡»È¦æµo¥¬ªº¸ê®Æ¡]½Ð¬Ý³Ì·sªº¤¤¥¡»È¦æ©u¥Z¡Aºô¯¸¤W¦³¡^¡A¥xÆWªº³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦¨ªø³£¦b³f¹ô¦¨ªø¥Ø¼Ð°Ï¤º¡A¤]´N¬O³£ºû«ù¦b¦~¼W²v3.5%--8.5%ªº½d³ò¡A³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦¨ªø¨S¦³´î¤Ö¡A­þ¨Ó³q³fºòÁY¡C

_______________________________________________________________

A. Gary Shilling(1999)µÛ
Deflation
The McGraw-Hill Company

©P«W¬ÂĶ
³q³fºòÁY
¥x¥_: °ªÄ_°ê»Ú

­¶199

.......¥H¬ü°ê¾ú¥v(1870~1998)¬Ý¨Ó
³q³fºòÁY´Á®É
³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦¨ªø³t«×¤ñ¸gÀÙ¦¨ªø¨Ó±o§Ö
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³q³fºòÁY´Á®É
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³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦ÛµM·|¼W¥[

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³q³fºòÁY´Á®É
³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹ªº½T¦³¥[³t¼W¥[ªºÁͶÕ

¦P­¶fig. 18-2 ¬ü°êµu´Á§Q²v¨«¶Õ»PM2³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦¨ªø¤§¶¡ªºÃö«Y(1870-1998)

¥Ñ¹Ï¤¤¨«¶Õ¥i¨£
§Y¨Ï¦b1930s
µu´Á§Q²v³Ì§C§C¨ì0%
M2³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¦¨ªø²v³£«ùÄò¦b+1.5%¤W¤U
(µy·Lªø´Á¤@ÂIªºÁͶլO¥Ñ1910sªº+2%¥ª¥k½w¨B¤U­°
§óªø´Á¤@ÂI¥Ñ1870sªº+4%°ª®p¤U­°)


NO:1798_75
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 09:10
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

Inflation ¡K ¡§A persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency.¡¨

Deflation ¡K ¡§A fall in the general price level or a contraction of credit and available money.¡¨

Also, the oft-confused concept of ¡§disinflation¡¨ must be defined, as it is very different from flat-out deflation.

Disinflation ¡K ¡§A period or process of slowing the rate of inflation.¡¨

In order to build a working and profitable investor¡¦s understanding of inflation, it is absolutely essential to know exactly what the above words mean. After the true definitions have been internalized, the concepts of inflation and deflation can only be really understood in the way they were originally intended, having to do with money supplies. Money supplies grease the skids of global commerce in the economy.
http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/infordef.htm>

Inflation or Deflation?


NO:1798_76
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 09:14
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

Re.


h3>


NO:1798_77
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 10:00
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¹Ï¤­¡G¥xÆW¥¢·~²v»P¥Á¶¡®ø¶O¦¨ªø
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¸ê®Æ¨Ó·½¡G¥xÆW¸gÀÙ·s³øªÀ

¥Á¶¡®ø¶O¦¨ªø¿ðº¢¡A¾ãÅ骫»ù¤S§e²{«ù¥­¡A¥xÆW¬O§_³v¨B³´¤J³q³fºòÁY¡H³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹¬O§_¥R¸Î¤w¦¨¬°·í«e
ªºÃöÁä¡A·í«eª÷¿ÄÃa±bªº¾ã¹y¦¨¥\»P§_±N¦¨¬°¨M©w¦]¯À¡A¦Ó³Ì°_½X¬F©²¤w¶}©l¿n·¥³W¹º³]¥ß¬ÛÃöªº­««Ø
°òª÷¡AÁöµM¥¼¨Ó¤´­±Á{´Â³¥¨ó°Ó¡A¦ý¦Ü¤Ö¬F©²¬Û·í¥¿¸Õ¦¹°ÝÃD¡A¦pªGª÷¿Ä°ÝÃD¯à¾ã¹y¦¨¥\¡A¬y°Ê©Ê³´¨À
´N¤£·|¥X²{¡A¤]¦]¦¹¥i±æÂ\²æ¥Ø«eµ~¹Ò¡C


NO:1798_78
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 10:01
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

src=http://www.finairport.com/image/552/27263_1034911888_-1375359328.gif>

NO:1798_79
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 10:03
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

src=http://www.finairport.com/image/552/27263_1034911888_-1375359328.gif>

NO:1798_80
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 10:10
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¤£ª¾¦ó¬GgifÀɵLªkshow½Ð¦Û¦æ½Æ»s«á¶K¤Jºô§}.

NO:1798_81
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 10:18
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

src=http://home.thirdage.com/Environment/carolminerva/cur.gif?3196>

NO:1798_82
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 13:25
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â


M1B M2
80 12.09 19.37
81 12.39 19.06
82 15.31 15.39
83 12.23 15.07
84 0.76 9.42
85 8.31 9.13
86 8.44 8.02
87 3.76 8.56
88 16.92 8.29
89 -0.34 6.50
90 11.88 4.37
90OCT 4.39 5.68
90NOV 6.70 4.84
90DEC 11.88 4.37

91JAN 11.24 3.58
91FEB 16.47 4.31
91MAR 17.38 4.34
91APR 20.39 4.62
91MAY 21.50 4.04
91JUN 18.73 3.48
91JUY 17.70 2.74
91AUG 19.60 2.70
91SEP 15.98 2.21

¸ê®Æ¨Ó·½¡G¤¤¥¡»È¦æ¡B¤¤¥¡«H°U§½¡B¥xÆWÃÒ¨é¥æ©ö©Ò¡B¦æ¬F°|¥D­p³B(91¦~8¤ë16¤é³Ì·s¹w´ú)¡B¸gÀÙ³¡²Î­p³B¡B°]¬F³¡²Î­p³B¡C

¡K ¡K


NO:1798_83
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 18:47
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â


®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼Æ¦~¼W²v
87JAN 1.99
0.30
2.46
2.11
1.66
1.42
0.84
0.44
0.41
2.58
3.91
2.12
88JAN 0.40
2.08
-0.46
-0.10
0.50
-0.83
-0.82
1.14
0.59
0.42
-0.90
0.14
89JAN 0.51
0.93
1.11
1.24
1.58
1.37
1.44
0.29
1.62
1.02
2.26
1.66
90JAN 2.36
-1.02
0.44
0.42
-0.21
-0.15
0.11
0.44
-0.51
0.96
-1.14
-1.69
91JAN -1.68
1.41
0.01
0.21
-0.26
0.10
0.41
-0.28
-0.75
91OCT -1.65


NO:1798_84
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:19
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

This Gary Schilling may be a good investment adviser, however, is not an economist. I would not take his words seriously.

NO:1798_85


>
valign=top height=21>

³æ¦ì:·s¥x¹ô»õ¤¸¡A1996¦~°ò´Á(NT$100 million¡A1996=100)

>
valign=top height=21>
border=1 width=95% height=692>
>
width=21% rowspan=5 height=74>¶µ¥Ø

>
width=57% colspan=4 align=center height=15>©u¹w´ú (Quarterly) 
width=24% colspan=3 align=center height=15> ¦~¹w´ú (Annually)

>
width=57% colspan=4 align=center height=13>2002
width=12% align=center height=13>2001
width=12% align=center height=13>2002
width=13% align=center height=13>2003

>
width=12% align=center height=13>²Ä¤@©u
width=12% align=center height=13> ²Ä¤G©u
width=12% align=center height=13> ²Ä¤T©u
width=13% align=center height=13> ²Ä¥|©u
width=12% align=center height=13> ¹ê»Ú­È
width=12% align=center height=13> ¹w´ú­È
width=13% align=center height=13> ¹w´ú­È

>
width=12% align=center height=15>I
width=12% align=center height=15>II
width=12% align=center height=15> III
width=13% align=center height=15> IV
width=12% align=center height=15> Actual
width=12% align=center height=15> Forecast
width=13% align=center height=15> Forecast

>
width=21% height=15>°ê¤º¥Í²£¤òÃB
width=12% align=center height=15>23688
width=12% align=center height=15>23591
width=12% align=center height=15>24230
width=13% align=center height=15>24843
width=12% align=center height=15>93499
width=12% align=center height=15>96353
width=13% align=center height=15>99504

>
width=21% height=13>Real GDP (%)
width=12% align=center height=13>1.20
width=12% align=center height=13>3.98
width=12% align=center height=13>3.80
width=13% align=center height=13>3.25
width=12% align=center height=13>-2.18
width=12% align=center height=13>3.05
width=13% align=center height=13>3.27

>
width=21% height=13>¥Á¶¡®ø¶O
width=12% align=center height=13>15670
width=12% align=center height=13>13830
width=12% align=center height=13>15364
width=13% align=center height=13>14359
width=12% height=13>

57949
width=12% align=center height=13>59223
width=13% align=center height=13>60997

>
width=21% height=21>Private Consumption (%)
width=12% align=center height=21>1.61
width=12% align=center height=21>2.36
width=12% align=center height=21>2.38
width=13% align=center height=21>2.50
width=12% align=center height=21>1.04
width=12% align=center height=21>2.20
width=13% align=center height=21>3.00

>
width=21% height=16>¬F©²®ø¶O
width=12% align=center height=16>2428
width=12% align=center height=16>2762
width=12% align=center height=16>2870
width=13% align=center height=16>2999
width=12% align=center height=16>11260
width=12% align=center height=16>11059
width=13% align=center height=16>10804

>
width=21% height=15>Gov¡¦t Consumption (%)
width=12% align=center height=15>0.10
width=12% align=center height=15>-0.70
width=12% align=center height=15>-2.31
width=13% align=center height=15>-3.72
width=12% align=center height=15>-1.02
width=12% align=center height=15>-1.78
width=13% align=center height=15>-2.31

>
width=21% height=16>©T©w¸ê¥»§Î¦¨
width=12% align=center height=16>3637
width=12% align=center height=16>4440
width=12% align=center height=16>4392
width=13% align=center height=16>5245
width=12% align=center height=16>18116
width=12% align=center height=16>17714
width=13% align=center height=16>18059

>
width=21% height=16>Fixed Capital Formation (%)
width=12% align=center height=16>-14.42
width=12% align=center height=16>-5.39
width=12% align=center height=16>6.06
width=13% align=center height=16>4.23
width=12% align=center height=16>-20.61
width=12% align=center height=16>-2.22
width=13% align=center height=16>1.95

>
width=21% height=16>¬F©²³¡ªù
width=12% align=center height=16>857
width=12% align=center height=16>1082
width=12% align=center height=16>1036
width=13% align=center height=16>1207
width=12% align=center height=16>4624
width=12% align=center height=16>4182
width=13% align=center height=16>4132

>
width=21% height=16>Gov¡¦t Investment
width=12% align=center height=16>-8.29
width=12% align=center height=16>-8.89
width=12% align=center height=16>-10.41
width=13% align=center height=16>-10.25
width=12% align=center height=16>-4.77
width=12% align=center height=16>-9.54
width=13% align=center height=16>-1.20

>
width=21% height=16>¤½Àç¨Æ·~
width=12% align=center height=16>374
width=12% align=center height=16>511
width=12% align=center height=16>506
width=13% align=center height=16>1056
width=12% align=center height=16>2403
width=12% align=center height=16>2448
width=13% align=center height=16>2345

>
width=21% height=16>Public Enter. Invest. (%)
width=12% align=center height=16>-6.02
width=12% align=center height=16>5.43
width=12% align=center height=16>4.88
width=13% align=center height=16>1.87
width=12% align=center height=16>4.05
width=12% align=center height=16>1.89
width=13% align=center height=16>-4.21

>
width=21% height=16>¥Á¶¡³¡ªù
width=12% align=center height=16>2405
width=12% align=center height=16>2846
width=12% align=center height=16>2850
width=13% align=center height=16>2982
width=12% align=center height=16>11089
width=12% align=center height=16>11083
width=13% align=center height=16>11586

>
width=21% height=16>Private Investment
width=12% align=center height=16>-17.53
width=12% align=center height=16>-5.75
width=12% align=center height=16>13.90
width=13% align=center height=16>12.50
width=12% align=center height=16>-29.17
width=12% align=center height=16>-0.05
width=13% align=center height=16>4.54

>
width=21% height=16>¿é¥X(°Ó«~¤Î³Ò°È)
width=12% align=center height=16>12505
width=12% align=center height=16>13827
width=12% align=center height=16>13126
width=13% align=center height=16>14400
width=12% align=center height=16>49328
width=12% align=center height=16>53857
width=13% align=center height=16>56389

>
width=21% height=16>Exports, gds+serv (%)
width=12% align=center height=16>2.38
width=12% align=center height=16>10.14
width=12% align=center height=16>15.41
width=13% align=center height=16>9.20
width=12% align=center height=16>-7.77
width=12% align=center height=16>9.18
width=13% align=center height=16>5.23

>
width=21% height=16>¿é¤J(°Ó«~¤Î³Ò°È)
width=12% align=center height=16>9809
width=12% align=center height=16>11542
width=12% align=center height=16>11667
width=13% align=center height=16>12362
width=12% align=center height=16>42114
width=12% align=center height=16>45381
width=13% align=center height=16>47187

>
width=21% height=16>Imports, gds+serv (%)
width=12% align=center height=16>-6.30
width=12% height=16>

4.22
width=12% align=center height=16>19.17
width=13% align=center height=16>14.67
width=12% align=center height=16>-13.87
width=12% height=16>

7.76
width=13% height=16>

5.51

>
width=100% colspan=7 height=13>¨ä¥LÁ`Åé¸gÀÙ«ü¼Ð (Other Economic Indicators)
width=13% height=13>

>
width=21% height=13>¥X¤f(°Ó«~-»õ¬ü¤¸,US$100m)
width=12% align=center height=13>292
width=12% align=center height=13>331
width=12% align=center height=13>333
width=13% align=center height=13>343
width=12% align=center height=13>1229
width=12% align=center height=13>1299
width=13% align=center height=13>1377

>
width=21% height=13>Nominal Gds Exports (%)
width=12% align=center height=13>-7.88
width=12% align=center height=13>5.78
width=12% align=center height=13>19.00
width=13% align=center height=13>7.55
width=12% align=center height=13>-17.16
width=12% align=center height=13>5.73
width=13% align=center height=13>6.86

>
width=21% height=13>¶i¤f(°Ó«~-»õ¬ü¤¸,US$100m)
width=12% align=center height=13>240
width=12% align=center height=13>288
width=12% align=center height=13>304
width=13% align=center height=13>310
width=12% align=center height=13>1072
width=12% align=center height=13>1142
width=13% align=center height=13>1200

>
width=21% height=13>Nominal Gds Imports (%)
width=12% align=center height=13>-15.24
width=12% align=center height=13>2.52
width=12% align=center height=13>23.25
width=13% align=center height=13>18.5
width=12% align=center height=13>-23.41
width=12% align=center height=13>6.48
width=13% align=center height=13>6.40

>
width=21% height=13>¶T©ö¾lÃB(°Ó«~¡X»õ¬ü¤¸)
width=12% align=center height=13>51
width=12% align=center height=13>43
width=12% align=center height=13>30
width=13% align=center height=13>33
width=12% align=center height=13>156
width=12% align=center height=13>157
width=13% align=center height=13>173

>
width=21% height=13>Trade Balance (%)
width=12% align=center height=13>55.16
width=12% align=center height=13>34.12
width=12% align=center height=13>-12.02
width=13% align=center height=13>-42.58
width=12% align=center height=13>88.07
width=12% align=center height=13>0.58
width=13% align=center height=13>10.25

>
width=21% height=11>®ø¶OªÌª«»ù«ü¼Æ (CPI¡A%)
width=12% align=center height=11>-0.10
width=12% align=center height=11>0.02
width=12% align=center height=11>-0.21
width=13% align=center height=11>-0.64
width=12% align=center height=11>-0.01
width=12% align=center height=11>-0.23
width=13% align=center height=11>0.77

>
width=21% height=13>Ä»°âª«»ù«ü¼Æ (WPI¡A%)
width=12% align=center height=13>-2.05
width=12% align=center height=13>-0.21
width=12% align=center height=13>-0.77
width=13% align=center height=13>3.23
width=12% align=center height=13>-1.34
width=12% align=center height=13>0.05
width=13% align=center height=13>2.04

>
width=21% height=12>¶×²v(¥­§¡­È)(NT$/US$)
width=12% align=center height=12>35.03
width=12% align=center height=12>34.14
width=12% align=center height=12>33.96
width=13% align=center height=12>34.9
width=12% align=center height=12>33.80
width=12% align=center height=12>34.50
width=13% align=center height=12>34.50

>
width=21% height=26>¹j©]©î´Ú§Q²v(¥­§¡­È)

(Overnight Call Rate)

width=12% align=center height=26>2.28
width=12% align=center height=26>2.19
width=12% align=center height=26>1.95
width=13% align=center height=26>1.98
width=12% align=center height=26>3.64
width=12% align=center height=26>2.10
width=13% align=center height=26>2.20

¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:21
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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¥x¸g°|Á`Åé¸gÀÙ«ü¼Ð¹w´ú(2002/11/7)



TIER Taiwan Economic Forecasts




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NO:1798_86
°O¤k ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:26
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

NO:1798_69
¨¦¯«¡A
¤¤°ê®É³ø°Û°I¥xÆWªºÃÒ¾Ú¡A362®a¢w15®a¡×347®a¡]·Q·íµM¦Õ¡A¦ý¬O¤H®a362®a¤¤¦³10®a¬O·s¶}ªº¡^
¤H®a³Á·í³ÒÁöµMÃö¤F15®a¡A«o¤]·s¶}¤F10®a¡A¤×¨ä«n³¡Ãö¤F¤­®a¤Ï¦Ó·s¶}¤F¤K®a¡A
¥u³ø¾É³¡¤À¨Æ¹ê¡A´N¤£¬O¨Æ¹ê¡C

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2002/11/30/185311

McDonalds axes 15 Taiwan outlets and 390 workers

By Joyce Huang
STAFF REPORTER
McDonalds Restaurants (Taiwan) Co shut down 15 unprofitable branches across Taiwan yesterday, laying off 390 employees.
After a six-month evaluation, the company has decided to shut down four stores in Taipei, five stores in Kaohsiung and six in central Taiwan, said Ronnie Liao (¹ù©¯¦w), the companys communications manager. Some 340 axed staff are part-timers he said.

Liao refused to disclose the companys sales figures, but did say revenues this year are on par with expectations. He attributed the shuttering of restaurants to an array of factors.

The closures are due to the companys business re-adjustment in the wake of rising store rental prices, relocation of commercial districts and the slower-than-expected economy, Liao said,

He added that there was no problem with the companys operation and management.

McDonalds regional manager in southern Taiwan, Hung Ming-sheng (¬x©ú¥Í), nevertheless, yesterday admitted to reporters that the five Kaohsiung stores have been losing money for more than two years.

He said that the company remains confident in its Kaohsiung business over the long term, but currently, construction of the citys mass rapid transit system has contributed to a slump in business in the area.

Hung further promised to hire back some part-timers during the Lunar New Year holiday in February if a business pickup necessitates rehiring staff.

The abrupt closure decision, however, yesterday came as a surprise to most employees, who learned of the closure the night before but were instructed to show up for a final briefing.

Laid-off staff were given an extra months pay and proportional year-end bonuses which would normally be paid out at before the Lunar New Year, according to Liao.

The communication manager did not specify whether the company has any expansion plans next year. Nevertheless, he did say, The company is always looking for new business opportunities.

Before the closure, McDonalds had a total of 362 branches nationwide, including 10 newly opened stores this year. When McDonalds opened its first restaurant in Taiwan in 1984, it broke the all-time, one-day global sales record for the company.

In early November, US-based McDonalds Corp announced plans to close a total of 175 restaurants worldwide, but Taiwan was not included on the closure list.


NO:1798_87
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:30
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

ª©¥D¦Ñ¤j¤W«h¦³»~½Ð§R
§Ú¤£¬O¬G·N£x!

NO:1798_88
°O¤k ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:34
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¨¦¯«,
³o¸Ì¤£¯à¶K¹Ïªí¡A¥u¯àÅܦrÅé¡C

NO:1798_89
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:40
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To ¨¦¯«

It is good that you showed us these statistics. However, statistics themselves do not tell us anything. We economists are different from statisticians because we have to judge and interpret diverse data that seem contradicting oneself at the first sight. Please give us your arguments.

Another point, do not confuse ex ante and ex post concepts. What you wrote Y=C+I+G+EX-IM is an ex post identity. One should not make causal deduction from an identify, because doing so causes only confusion. This is a common sense.

Let me reiterate my point. Merely an observation that consumption price goes down is not a sufficient evidence for deflation. Price adjustment can have various reasons. A strictly definition of deflation must take money supply into account. Only a continuous and negative growth of money can cause a deflation, and that is exactly what the monetary policy should take care. Under the current situation, Taiwan does not face any deflation, because the growth rate of money supply is still positive as you showed us in NO:1798_82.


NO:1798_90
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 19:41
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

°O¤k:
«Ü°ª¿³¯à¦³§ó¦nªºINFORMATION
¤]¦³¥i¯à¬O7-11ªºÄvª§¦ý§Ú¥u¬O
´£¥XªÀ·|²{¹³ªºÆ[ÂI
¦ýM2´î¤Ö¤Î¥¢·~²v¼W¥[ªºÁͶÕ
ÁÙ¬O¥O¤H¼~¤ß!

NO:1798_91
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 20:01
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

TO:HitCat ¡@
§ÚªºÆ[ÂINO:1798_43»PNO:1798_77¦³¬Û¦P¤§³B
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NO:1798_92
µ¡ ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 20:13
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â


You may take someones words not seriously.
But you should take the historical data seriously to make your argument (or definition or explanations, whatever you call it) persuasive.

NO:1798_93
µ¡ ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 20:28
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

>>³q³fºòÁY­n¦³«ùÄòªº³f¹ô¨Ñµ¹´î¤Ö§@¬°«e´£¡C¥u¬OÆ[¹î¨ìµu¼È¡A¬Æ¦Ü¥u¬O¤@¦¸©Êªºª«»ùÅܰʡA¤£¯à´N¦¹Â_©w¬°³q³fºòÁY¡C

This is your own definition (or precondition).

Dont tell me that the historical data was wrong or irrelevant just because it did not fit in well in your theory.


NO:1798_94
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 20:46
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To ¨¦¯« and Simon

An important question is: what can monetary policy do? So far I know, the current doctrine is that monetary policy can achieve little. An active monetary policy cannot influence real interest rate and output in the long run. However, a bad monetary policy can cause price instability and financial de-intermediation. The goal of monetary policy is to maintain a stable macroeconomic framework where economic adjustments and evolutions can take place. No more and no less. A bad monetary policy should be avoided, but assigning irrelevant tasks to the monetary policy is dangerous too.

Both of you urge for policy action. But most of the problems you mention, such as export competition, enhancement of industrial structure and reduction of unemployment, cannot be solved through monetary policy. It is mission impossible. I do not see any reason to urge the central bank to change its current stand.


NO:1798_95
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 20:54
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To ¨¦¯«

you said,
¦ýM2=C+D+T«hªí¥Ü¦³¤j¶q¥¼³Ð³y¦³®Ä»Ý¨Dªº¸êª÷¥~²¾,

explain!!!


NO:1798_96
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 21:39
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

HitCat :
½Ð°Ñ¦ÒNO:1798_82ªºdata
ªº³v¦~»¼´î©Ò¥H§Ú¤~»¡¦³¤j¶q¥¼³Ð³y¦³®Ä»Ý¨Dªº¸êª÷¥~²¾.


NO:1798_97
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/03 21:56
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

Tell me who were your macro teachers?

NO:1798_98
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/04 02:48
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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NO:1798_99
CW ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/04 07:50
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

<¤@­Ó¦³½ìªº²{¶H°ê¥~¸gÀٲέp§¡¦³PPI,°ê¤º¦ü¥G§ä¤£¨ì>

¦]¬°¥xÆW¥ÎÄ»°âª«»ù«ü¼Æ (whole sale price index) ·íPPI


NO:1798_100
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/04 08:43
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

¶Â¥ÐªF«ÛÆ~¤é»È­q©w3%³q³f¿±µÈ¥Ø¼Ð¥H¹ï§Ü³q³fºòÁY
(91/12/02 13:46:19)
2002-12-02 12:49:36 °OªÌ ªL©{·ì ³ø¾É

¤é¥»°]°È¬Ù¦¸©x¶Â¥ÐªF«Û2¤é¦bª÷¿Ä®É³øµoªíµû½×¤¤¡A­n¨D¤é¥»»È¦æ(BOJ)­q©w3%ªº³q³f¿±µÈ¥Ø¼Ð¡A¥H¹ï§Ü³q³fºòÁYÀ£¤O¡C¶Â¥ÐªF«Û©IÆ~¤é¥»¡B¬ü°ê¡B¼Ú¬w±Ä¤T¤èÁp¦Xªº¼eÃP³f¹ô¬Fµ¦¡A¥H­±¹ï¤¤°ê¤j³°¤JÃö¡B¨ä¥L¨È¬w·s¿³¥«³õ¸gÀÙÅé¿Ä¤J¥þ²y¶T©öÅé¨t«á¤é¯q¤É°ªªº³q³fºòÁYÀ£¤O¡C

¶Â¥ÐªF«Ûªí¥Ü¡A¥þ²y¤TÃ䪺³q³f¦A¿±µÈ(reflation)¬Fµ¦¡A±N¯à±a¨Ó­«¤j§Q¯q±N¥þ²y¸gÀÙ¦¨¥»­°¦Ü³Ì§C¡A¥L±j½Õ¦¹¬Fµ¦¹ï¥~¶×¥«³õ¼vÅT¦³­­¡C¤é¥»ªº3%³q³f¿±µÈ¥Ø¼Ð¥i¤À¶¥¬q¹F¦¨¡A¨Ò¦p¦b¤@¦~¤º¹F¦¨1%ªº³q¿±¥Ø¼Ð¡A¦b¥¼¨Ó2¦~¤º¹F¨ì2-3%ªº³q¿±¥Ø¼Ð¡C¤é¥»ª÷¿Ä¾á·í¬Û¦Ë¤¤¥­Âä]»{¬°¡A¤é»È­q©w³q³f¿±µÈ¥Ø¼Ð¦³§U©ó§JªA³q³fºòÁY°ÝÃD¡C




NO:1798_101
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/04 08:54
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

TO CW:
§A©Ò«üªº´N¬OWPI
¦ý¹L©óROUGH,°ê¥~
§ë¸ê¤H±ý¶i¤J¥»°ê¥«³õ
«ÜÃø§@§ë¸ê­·ÀIµû¦ô
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¦ü¥G¥t¦³¥Lªk,
¥t¥~¦³¤Hª¾¹DWPI»PPPI¦³¦ó®t²§?

NO:1798_102
CW ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/04 11:49
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

<¥t¥~¦³¤Hª¾¹DWPI»PPPI¦³¦ó®t²§?>

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ºë½Tªº¤w§Ñ°O ¤j¬ù¬O WPI §â¥X¤fª«»ùºâ¶i¥h ¦Ó PPI ¨S¦³


NO:1798_103
¨¦¯« ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/05 13:46
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

CIBC¡G³q³fºòÁYÀ£¤O¤j¡AFedÀ³­°®§¦Ü¹s
(91/12/05 09:45:25)
ºë·~¹Å¹ê·s»D 2002-12-05 09:28:56 °OªÌ ¤ý¤¶§Ó ³ø¾É

CIBC World Markets¸gÀپǮaJeff Rubin 4¤éªí¥Ü¡A¬ü°ê¥¿­±Á{³q³fºòÁYÀ£¤O¡A¥L»{¬°Áp·Ç·|À³¸Ó¯S§OÃöª`¡A±N§Q²v­°¨ì¹s¡C

CIBC«ü¥X¡A³o¬Oªñ¥b¥@¬ö¨Ó­º¦¸¥Á¶¡®ø¶Oª«»ù«ùÄò¤U·Æ¡CRubbinªí¥Ü¡GÁöµMFed¤£Ä@¤½¶}©Ó»{¡A¤j³¡¥÷¸gÀپǮa¤]©ê«ùÃhºÃ¡A¦ý¡¦¤jD¡¦(«ü³q³fºòÁY)¤w¸g¦^¨Ó¤F¡C

Rubbin©IÆ~Fed¨Æ¥ý¨¾½d¡A¤£­n¥Ç¤U»P¤é»È¬Û¦Pªº¿ù»~¡A¦bª«»ù¦^¤É«e¡A¥L»{¬°FedÀ³¸ÓÅý§Q²vºû«ù¦b¹s¡C





NO:1798_104
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/06 02:35
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To CW

Georgetown¦³´X¦ì°µ³f¹ô²z½×«D±`¦³¦W®ðªº¦Ñ®v¡A¨Ò¦pMatthew Canzoneri»PDiba¡C§Ú¤µ¦~®L¤Ñ­è¦n°Ñ¥[¤@­Ó¥ÑCanzoneri¾á¥ôÁ¿®vªºsummer school¡C


NO:1798_105
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/06 06:25
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

©_©Ç¡A«n¹Å¥Í¦n¹³¤£¨£¤F¡C

NO:1798_106
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/13 02:36
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

To «n¹Å¥Í

½Ð¤£­n§Ñ°O§Ú¦bNO:1798_47¹ï§A©Ò´£¥Xªº°ÝÃD¡C

Let me ask you two questions. Tell us,
1. What is the current consensus on monetary economics and policies?
2. Who are the leading economists in this area?


NO:1798_107
CW ¡@©ó¡@2002/12/13 05:10
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

HitCat

¤j³¡¥÷Macroªº¾Ç¥Í¬O§äMatthew Canzoneri»PDiba·í«ü¾É±Ð±Â


NO:1798_108
HitCat ¡@©ó¡@2003/01/26 00:03
Re:¥xÆW¶i¤J³q³fºòÁY¶Ü¡H¦³½Ð¦U¦ì°ª¤â

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°_½X¨S¦³³q³fºòÁYªº²{¶H¡C

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