------------

Taiwan and China

Full of sound and fury

Aug 8th 2002

China should not threaten Taiwan for merely stating the obvious

IN ANCIENT China, disputes between rival states were often settled by each side drawing up its warriors on a convenient plain, where they would make warlike noises for a while before officials awarded victory to whoever was deemed to have won, based on numbers of troops, the prestige of the opposing generals, and such-like things. No actual fighting was needed.

The conflict between the two modern-day Chinese states, the Peoples Republic of China and the Republic of China (as Taiwan grandly calls itself), sometimes seems rather like that. Chen Shui-bian, Taiwans president, launched the first strike in the latest verbal battle at the weekend when he declared that “with China and Taiwan...there is one country on each side” of the Taiwan strait. Since the Communists contention is that there is only one China, whose capital is Beijing, they find this little short of treasonous, or “splittist”. When, with a follow-up salvo, Mr Chen declared that he might favour legislation permitting a referendum to settle the islands future, China struck back in force.

Warnings to Mr Chen to “stop the horse at the edge of the precipice”, because his actions could lead to “disaster”, sound very like threats of war to anyone not familiar with the formulaic nature of cross-strait rhetoric. In fact, the chances of conflict are remote. America, especially under President Bush, would almost certainly intervene on Taiwans side; besides, Taiwan already has enough high-tech weapons to make an invasion very difficult for China to pull off. But the extraordinary rise in Chinas defence spending in recent years means that this balance cannot be relied on indefinitely.

The interesting question is why Mr Chen chose to speak out just now. Since becoming president in 2000, he has on the whole been careful to avoid offending China, which was deeply suspicious of him as the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, historically in favour of independence. But it looks as though he has become frustrated by Chinas lack of response to his moderation, which has after all cost him a degree of support within his own partys ranks. Instead of rewarding him with friendly words, or even—which he most wants—a renunciation of the use of force against Taiwan, China has refused to talk to Mr Chen, his government or his party. It has declined to discuss opening direct links between the mainland and the island, unless Taiwan first accepts that such links are a domestic matter. Any talk of reunification, it says, must proceed on the basis that there is only one China. No wonder Mr Chens patience has worn thin.

One can question whether it was wise of Mr Chen to anger the Chinese, but what he said was surely right. It is merely a recognition of reality to say that China and Taiwan are two states, not one: Taiwan may not have many embassies, thanks to relentless Chinese bullying of weak-spirited governments everywhere, but it is a member of the World Trade Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group. It competes in the Asian and Olympic Games (under the absurd name “Chinese Taipei”). It has an elected president and an elected parliament, and its 20m people enjoy rights and prosperity unknown to the 1.2 billion across the strait.

>>It has an elected president and an elected parliament, and its 20m people enjoy rights and prosperity unknown to the 1.2 billion across the strait.<<譯文
台灣有經全民投票選出的總統,也有票選的立法院;二千萬的台灣人民享有著十二億中國人夢想不到的權利及繁華.

>>By routinely threatening force against Taiwan, China equates itself with Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein, both of whom shed blood to preserve their empires. Until it desists from such talk—even if talk is all it is—China can never be a full member of the community of civilised nations<<
不斷地用武力威脅台灣,中國等同將自己比做以血腥鎮壓手段來鞏固政權的南斯拉夫Milosevic和伊拉克Saddam Hussein.儘管是叫囂而已,但除非中國放棄武力侵臺的野心,它就永遠成不了文明國家的成員.

一邊一國／英經濟學人社論：說法承認現實　中國不該威脅 2002/08/10 18:43

　本報國際中心／編譯

英國「經濟學人」周刊最新一期的社論指出，陳水扁總統提出台海兩岸一邊一國的說法「的確是對的」，該刊認為，這「不過是承認現實而已」，中國不應該因為陳總統說出顯而易見的事實就威脅台灣。

經濟學人其中一篇社論認為，中國經常威脅對台動武，等於將自己與米洛塞維奇及海珊這類人物劃上等號。文中表示，除非中國停止言語威脅，否則它永遠不能成為文明國際社會的一員。

經濟學人指出，中國欺壓意志較弱的政府從不手軟，以致台灣與許多國家沒有邦交，但是台灣是世界貿易組織及亞太經合會的一員，台灣可以參加奧運，雖然它是以荒誕「中華台北」為名；台灣有自己人民選出來的總統與國會，2000多萬人民享有的權利與繁榮是對岸12億人口所不知的。

中央社引述這篇社論中表示，陳總統於此時提出一邊一國論，是因為他上任後對中國採取溫和政策一直未獲回應，因此感到挫折。中國拒絕和陳總統、他的政府及他的黨對話，也拒絕討論台灣與大陸間的三通問題，除非台灣先承認這是內政事務。此外，中國堅持有關統一的談判必須在只有一個中國的基礎上進行，難怪陳總統會失去耐性。

最簡單的例子就是，同樣是外遇，
大部分人都比較站在鄭志龍的老婆那邊，
至於蔡閨那接近荒謬的委曲求全，
就惹人反感不想再憐憫他。

我不曉得國內媒體為什麼要一直宣揚是陳總統說錯話惹中國生氣，
會引起中國武力威脅，
明明就是中國一直拿飛彈指著我們恐嚇，
我們才要與他們劃清界線以策安全，
媒體不斷指鹿為馬，倒因為果，
想要麻木民眾意志，讓大家通通變成沒是非沒骨頭的廢物，
到底有什麼好處？
稍微有點腦筋的國外記者看了國內報導一定一頭霧水，
搞不好還會揉揉眼睛檢查自己看的是台灣還是中國的報導。
覺得自己的邏輯完全不管用。

Taiwan and China
台灣與中國

Full of sound and fury
充滿叫囂和憤怒

中文部分由酥餅翻譯

Aug 8th 2002

China should not threaten Taiwan for merely stating the obvious
中國不應該因為台灣將明顯的事實說出來就威脅台灣

IN ANCIENT China, disputes between rival states were often settled by each side drawing up its warriors on a convenient plain, where they would make warlike noises for a while before officials awarded victory to whoever was deemed to have won, based on numbers of troops, the prestige of the opposing generals, and such-like things. No actual fighting was needed.

中國古時候，敵對的兩國解決紛爭的方法，是將軍隊在平原上一字排開，在正式分出勝負前，兩邊發出像是交戰的聲音。真正的勝負比的只是兩邊軍隊數目的多寡，將軍的威望等，並不需要真正的戰爭。

The conflict between the two modern-day Chinese states, the Peoples Republic of China and the Republic of China (as Taiwan grandly calls itself), sometimes seems rather like that. Chen Shui-bian, Taiwans president, launched the first strike in the latest verbal battle at the weekend when he declared that “with China and Taiwan...there is one country on each side” of the Taiwan strait. Since the Communists contention is that there is only one China, whose capital is Beijing, they find this little short of treasonous, or “splittist”. When, with a follow-up salvo, Mr Chen declared that he might favour legislation permitting a referendum to settle the islands future, China struck back in
force.

兩個現代中國 -- 中華人民共和國，和中華民國（台灣對自己的稱呼）的紛爭，也有這個味道。台灣總統，陳水扁在週末的時候發起最新一波的語言攻勢，他公告：「台灣和中國，在海峽兩岸，是一邊一國。」因為中國共產黨主張「一個中國」政策，而且這個中國的首都在北京，所以北京認為一邊一國的言論，幾乎算是背叛，或是分裂主義。當陳先生繼續言語的攻擊，表示他贊成立法，用公民複決的方法決定台灣的未來時，北京也反擊了。

Warnings to Mr Chen to “stop the horse at the edge of the precipice”, because his actions could lead to “disaster”, sound very like threats of war to anyone not familiar with the formulaic nature of cross-strait rhetoric. In fact, the chances of conflict are remote. America, especially under President Bush, would almost certainly intervene on Taiwans side; besides, Taiwan already has enough high-tech weapons to make an invasion very difficult for China to pull off. But the extraordinary rise in Chinas defence spending in recent years means that this balance cannot be relied on indefinitely.

北京警告陳先生要「懸崖勒馬」，因為他的行為，有可能導致災難。在任何不熟悉兩岸慣用修辭的人聽起來，這的確像是以戰爭來威脅。然而，事實上，軍事衝突的機會非常的小。美國，特別是布希主導下的美國政府幾乎確定會介入以幫助台灣。更何況，台灣已經擁有足夠的高科技武器，中國對台灣的侵略，勢必付出昂貴的代價。但是，近年來，中國超乎尋常的增加國防預算，這代表，兩岸的均勢不會無限期的維持下去。

The interesting question is why Mr Chen chose to speak out just now. Since becoming president in 2000, he has on the whole been careful to avoid offending China, which was deeply suspicious of him as the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, historically in favour of independence. But it looks as though he has become frustrated by Chinas lack of response to his moderation, which has after all cost him a degree of support within his own partys ranks. Instead of rewarding him with friendly words, or even—which he most wants—a renunciation of the use of force against Taiwan, China has refused to talk to Mr Chen, his government or his party. It has declined to discuss opening direct links between the mainland and the island, unless Taiwan first accepts that such links are a domestic matter. Any talk of reunification, it says, must proceed on the basis that there is only one China. No wonder Mr Chens patience has worn thin.

有趣的是，陳先生為什麼選擇在這個時候發聲？自從贏得2000年總統選舉後，他非常小心地避免刺激中國，這對傳統上支持獨立的民進黨的領導人來說，是非常不尋常的。看來，他對中國對他的善意缺乏回應感到挫折，中國的態度，也影響了他在黨內的支持度。中國仍然拒絕和陳先生，他領導的政府，及他所屬的政黨對談；沒有對他有好話，或是任何有放棄以武力統一中國的跡象。中國拒絕談判三通，除非台灣接受三通為國內事務。任何有關統一的談話，都被要求要基於一個中國原則，難怪陳先生的耐性會被磨光。

One can question whether it was wise of Mr Chen to anger the Chinese, but what he said was surely right. It is merely a recognition of reality to say that China and Taiwan are two states, not one: Taiwan may not have many embassies, thanks to relentless Chinese bullying of weak-spirited governments everywhere, but it is a member of the World Trade Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group. It competes in the Asian and Olympic Games (under the absurd name “Chinese Taipei”). It has an elected president and an elected parliament, and its 20m people enjoy rights and prosperity unknown to the 1.2 billion across the strait.

大家或許可以質疑陳先生激怒中國人的舉動是不是有智慧，但是他所說的絕對是對的。說中國和台灣是一邊一國，不是同一個國家，只是對事實的陳述。由於無情的中國人對各地神經衰弱的政府的蠻橫態度，台灣或許沒有許多邦交國。但是，台灣是世貿組織及亞太經合會的一員。它也參加亞運及奧運（用中華台北這個荒誕的名字）。它有經由選舉產生的總統及國會，在台灣的兩千萬人民享有在對岸十二億人聽都沒聽過的權力，與繁榮。

By routinely threatening force against Taiwan, China equates itself with Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein, both of whom shed blood to preserve their empires. Until it desists from such talk—even if talk is all it is—China can never be a full member of the community of civilised nations