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紐約時報：刺激中共 無異經濟自殺

　　王綽中／台北報導　據「紐約時報」發自北京的報導說，台灣經濟陷入低潮而其它市場又開拓不力，當前對中國大陸市場依賴正不斷加深，陳水扁「一邊一國」和「公民投票」刺激中共的講話，無異是經濟自殺。

　　中共國務院台辦發言人李維一五日在批評陳水扁講話時表示，陳水扁的講話受到影響的是台灣經濟，受到損害的是台灣民眾的切身利益。

　　上週六陳水扁表示，舉行台灣獨立的公民投票，是台灣住民的「基本人權」，台海兩邊事實上是「一邊一國」。

　　中共可能採取象徵性的行動，來表達對陳水扁的不滿；中共已經計畫在未來數週，在台灣對岸地區舉行軍事演習。

　　目前台灣的出口有四分之一在中國大陸，中國大陸已成為台灣出口商品最大也成長最快的市場，台灣主要廠商幾乎一半在中國大陸投資，總額超過五百億美元。

　　台灣經濟正處於低潮，中國大陸是它最大的市場而其它市場又不振之際，陳水扁刺激中共的舉動，可能對自己即使不是政治自殺，也是經濟自殺。

A Distracted China Issues Censure of Taiwan Chiefs Remarks
By CRAIG S. SMITH with KEITH BRADSHER

EIJING, Aug. 5 ?Distracted by back-room maneuvering over leadership changes here, China has offered little more than a boilerplate response to aggressive statements on relations with Taiwan by its president, Chen Shui-bian, and has suggested that his own constituents may provide the strongest censure of his remarks.

Li Wei-yi, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of Chinas State Council, issued a statement denouncing Mr. Chens comments. Mr. Li said that the comments would have ramifications for Taiwans economy and that they would probably have ramifications for the personal interests of Taiwan residents as well.

Mr. Chen said on Saturday that holding a referendum on Taiwans independence was a basic human right and that, in reality, there was one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait.

China has long threatened to use force against Taiwan if it declares outright independence or refuses to agree eventually to reunify with the mainland.

China may yet take some symbolic action to express its displeasure over Mr. Chens remarks; war games are already planned on the coast opposite Taiwan in the weeks ahead.

But Chinas condemnation of Taiwans president centered on an increasingly unavoidable reality in the decades-old standoff between the governments in Beijing and Taipei ?that Taiwans economy is fast becoming dependent on the mainland.

Already, one quarter of Taiwans exports go to China, the biggest and fastest-growing market for the islands goods, and nearly all of Taiwans major businesses now have investments on the mainland, totaling more than $50 billion.

With the islands economy at low ebb and the economies of its other markets slowing, goading China into punitive action could be economically, if not politically, suicidal for Mr. Chen.

Rebukes were swift. Taiwans biggest opposition party, the Nationalist Party, which ran Taiwan until 2000, was harshly critical of him, saying he was turning the pro-independence policies of his Democratic Progressive Party into government policy despite having promised to pursue a centrist course in office.

In this context, it is very risky, said Steven S. F. Chen, Taiwans top diplomat in the United States until 2000 and now a national security expert at the National Policy Foundation, the Nationalist Partys research center.

Members of President Chens administration, meanwhile, scrambled to discount the significance of his remarks.

Do not overinterpret Mr. Chens comments, Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of Taiwans Mainland Affairs Council, said before leaving on a hastily scheduled trip to the United States to reassure American officials that the island is not pursuing a major shift in strategy. Taiwans China policy has not changed.

The United States has long counseled Taiwan against declaring independence, though China renewed its accusation today that Washington has emboldened Taipei with diplomatic support and continued weapons sales.

President Bush said last year that he would do whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself against the mainland.

In fact, Mr. Chens comments, while the strongest since he took office two years ago, did not go beyond the language of a 1999 resolution on Taiwans future adopted by his Democratic Progressive Party.

Mr. Chen had not repeated that language since he took office, when he promised not to declare statehood or to push for an independence referendum if China would abandon its threat to use force against the island.

But Beijing has not renounced that threat, and some experts believe that Mr. Chen may be taking advantage of Chinas distraction ahead of the Communist Partys coming congress, at which crucial leadership changes will be decided, to put the language back on the table, pleasing pro-independence forces in Taiwan and putting some pressure on Beijing.

Andrew Yang, the secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a research center in Taipei, said Mr. Chen appeared to be calculating that China would pay attention to Taiwan only if he speaks strongly.

Taiwans Market Falls as Ties With Beijing Worsen
By KEITH BRADSHER

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Aug. 5 ?Taiwans stock market fell sharply today in response to deteriorating relations with China, but the dispute is unlikely to affect either sides economy or American companies and consumers unless it becomes much more serious, corporate executives and economists said here today.

A speech on Saturday by President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan, who described China and Taiwan as separate countries and endorsed legislation allowing referendums on issues including Taiwans sovereign status, provoked an angry response today from Beijing, in a confrontation that frightened shareholders.

Share prices began tumbling at the opening today and continued falling when Beijing denounced the speech just before noon as a brazen provocation. Taiwans benchmark stock index closed down 5.8 percent. Trading limits here prevent each companys shares from falling more than 7 percent in a single day.

You could see today everyone wanted to sell shares, said Margaret Lin, a fund manager at the Truswell Securities Investment Trust Company here.

Chinese officials clearly expected the market effect in Taiwan of their criticisms and couched their remarks in terms that would appeal to business executives, who tend to be the strongest advocates of closer integration with the mainland.

The ramifications will be felt by Taiwans economy, and the damage will be sustained by the personal interests of Taiwan compatriots, said Li Wei-yi, the spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of Chinas State Council, at a hastily convened news conference in Beijing. This will lead Taiwan toward disaster.

While the comments from Beijing and Taipei continue a decades-long political divide, the economies of Taiwan and China are increasingly intertwined, with at least 500,000 of Taiwans 23 million people now living on the mainland.

Complex webs of technology companies in particular now assemble components and computers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait for all of the big American computer vendors, especially Dell. They have turned Taiwan and China together into the worlds largest producers of everything from certain desktop computer parts to notebook computers.

Business leaders pointed out that previous verbal skirmishes in 1996 and 1999 have had little effect on factory production or foreign investment, and said that the current confrontation also does not yet pose a serious problem.

Fundamentally, I dont think really it is, unless things get worse, said Frank Huang, the chairman of the Taipei Computer Association and the chairman of Power Chip, Taiwans third-largest manufacturer of computer chips.

But he added that with the slowing American economy already affecting chip demand, this is not the best time for what Chen Shui-bian said ?its not helping.

Richard Vuylsteke, the executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taipei, said that the groups members were not alarmed. People are kind of used to a lot of rhetoric on both sides, he said. Basically for us, its business as usual.

The New Taiwan dollar, the currency here, slipped only as much as 0.7 percent today, to 33.95 New Taiwan dollars to the United States dollar, after the central bank spent an undisclosed sum of United States dollars to buy its currency. The central bank is in a strong position to buttress the currency because it has been intervening heavily in recent weeks to prevent the New Taiwan dollar from appreciating quickly.

Until today, there had been upward pressure on the Taiwanese currency, which would sap the competitiveness of Taiwanese exports, as Asian stocks held up better than American and European equities.

A few Chinese companies stocks were also down today, notably businesses in Xiamen, a large port near southern Taiwan that stands to benefit if China and Taiwan ever allow direct shipping routes and flights. But markets in China mostly shrugged off the hostile words being exchanged, as Chinas economy is not only larger than Taiwans but also viewed as much less vulnerable to disruption if an actual crisis were to occur.

Yet Chinas export sector has prospered even as much of the rest of the economy has stagnated, notably state-owned enterprises that still dominate many older industries. China needs a healthy computer industry in Taiwan as much as the United States does, said Peter Kurz, the chief executive of the Insight Pacific Investment Research, a consulting firm here.

The United States is dependent on it, but China is dependent on it as well, he said.

Fearing Chinas growing economic importance within Taiwan, President Chen urged Taiwanese businesses last week to invest more in Southeast Asia instead of China. The recent trend has been quite the opposite, and China, seeing President Chens concern, is unlikely to punish or restrict the mainland operations of Taiwanese technology companies, Mr. Kurz said, adding that China realizes that enticing businesses is the most effective way of winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese.

該記者是在人格自殺、誠信自殺
該記者如此厚顏無恥，想必還不至於在生命上自殺吧？

最近的統媒實在太誇張了。
這種低程度的，實在讓人輕視，藐視。

Mr. Li said that the comments would have ramifications for Taiwans economy and that they would probably have ramifications for the personal interests of Taiwan residents as well.

「李維一說，（陳水扁）這些話將會對台灣經濟造成影響，也會對台灣住民的個人利益造成影響。」

在引述這段話之前，紐約時報開宗明義就說中國的反應大致還是「樣板」(boilerplate) 說法，也就是沒有新意：

Distracted by back-room maneuvering over leadership changes here, China has offered little more than a boilerplate response to aggressive statements on relations with Taiwan by its president, Chen Shui-bian, and has suggested that his own constituents may provide the strongest censure of his remarks.

「中國為了領導班子的繼承問題正忙於暗盤折衝，對台灣總統陳水扁針對中台關係作出的強勢談話只能提出樣板反應，並指出對陳水扁最強的批評可能是他自己的選民。除此之外，中方並沒有什麼特殊說法。」

然後文章解釋事件背景，包括點出「未來數週」將有軍事演習（中國時報看到這裡當然是眼睛一亮），但接著還是回到台灣對中國的經濟依賴，認為這才是中方反應的主軸，稍微有點新意的地方。這部份隨著就說到「經濟自殺」的問題：

With the islands economy at low ebb and the economies of its other markets slowing, goading China into punitive action could be economically, if not politically, suicidal for Mr. Chen.

台灣經濟正處於低潮，中國之外的其它市場又陷入遲緩，刺激中共一但引起懲罰行動，即使不會造成陳水扁的政治自殺，也可能是經濟自殺。

這裡有幾個有趣的問題。第一，紐約時報記者似乎是認同中國的經濟依賴論的。至少他們為中國舉出了具體的根據，有助於他們的讀者的理解。但從一開始的整體評斷看，顯然他們覺得這是中國方面忙於內鬥，才有這種阿Q式的反應：我們不用殺陳水扁，他的選民自己就會殺他！這種細微的文字藝術中國時報的王綽中應該是不會有意願去看到的。

其次，原文是說：「一旦引起懲罰行動，可能......」即使王綽中的內文至少也是說「可能」是經濟自殺，到了標題卻變成無條件的「無異經濟自殺」。再其次，原文說「如果不是在政治上，也會在經濟上形同自殺」，難道經濟自殺不一定導致政治自殺，所以不比政治自殺嚴重？再其次，我也不曉得陳水扁如何「經濟自殺」：難道泛藍會立法規定一旦如何如何扁嫂的財產要一律充公？

另外名詞 economic suicide 與形容詞 economically suicidal 是有一些分別的。名詞才能說「經濟自殺」，形容詞的話只能說有「經濟自殺」的意味（上文譯為「形同經濟自殺」恐怕還太強了點）。這就像說某人是 suicidal 是說他有自殺傾向，並不是說他已經有自殺的實際動作。這些文義細微之處，以中國時報的外國、中國語文程度，當然也是沒有能力也沒有意願去處理的。

總結來說，紐約時報記者的話本身就有語病，只能說是為了解釋中國的說法，拼湊出來的準評論，並不是想要認真說出來的重點。中國時報為什麼看到這裡眼睛又一亮，認為挖到寶，外人就不便猜測了。

如果我沒猜錯，中時的譯稿，就其標題和內文來看，它所假想的閱讀對象，大概主要是台灣的股民，或是對經濟現況不滿的人。並且希望從這些對象身上激起共鳴，對扁政府形成輿論壓力。但，對問題本身，中時除了沒有帶給我們更多的瞭解，反而製造了更多麻煩、扭曲的誤解。

現在，我也來分點工，將原文的末四段作點翻譯。因為，我猜，紐約時報該篇報導這個部分的主要目的，大概是要透過「專家」的陳述提出「揣測」，向英文世界的讀者「說明」，阿扁為什麼要選擇在這個時點發表「一邊一國」論？至於這些「揣測」能不能成立，那就另當別論了。

譯文有誤，也請朋友們不吝指正。

In fact, Mr. Chens comments, while the strongest since he took office two years ago, did not go beyond the language of a 1999 resolution on Taiwans future adopted by his Democratic Progressive Party.

事實上，雖然陳先生(阿扁)的講話是他自兩年前就職以來最強烈的(一回)，但(這些話的內容)並未超出1999年由他所屬的民進黨的「台灣前途決議文」中所採用的措詞(內涵)。

Mr. Chen had not repeated that language since he took office, when he promised not to declare statehood or to push for an independence referendum if China would abandon its threat to use force against the island.

自他就職時承諾如果中國願意放棄以武力對付台灣的威脅，他就不會宣佈台獨或推動獨立公投後，陳先生即未再重提上述論調。

But Beijing has not renounced that threat, and some experts believe that Mr. Chen may be taking advantage of Chinas distraction ahead of the Communist Partys coming congress, at which crucial leadership changes will be decided, to put the language back on the table, pleasing pro-independence forces in Taiwan and putting some pressure on Beijing.

但北京未嘗宣示放棄該威脅，同時，某些專家相信陳先生可能可以在決定重要領導班子換手的中共黨代表大會召開前，因中國方面心有旁騖而得到好處。也就是，把這些論調再擺上桌，既可討好台灣的擁獨勢力，也可以對北京施加壓力。

Andrew Yang, the secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a research center in Taipei, said Mr. Chen appeared to be calculating that China would pay attention to Taiwan only if he speaks strongly.