(中央社台北二日電)中國與俄羅斯十月間剛針對黑瞎子島邊界問題達成協議，香港文匯報報導，中國軍隊明年十月有可能上島駐守。

中國國家主席胡錦濤十月中旬與應邀到訪的俄羅斯總統蒲亭會談，雙方批准「中俄睦鄰友好合作條約實施綱要」，並簽署其他十二項雙邊文件，其中包括「中俄關於兩國邊界東段的補充協定」，這項協定與「中蘇東段國界協定」以及「中俄西段國界協定」，代表四千三百餘公里的中俄邊界線走向全部確定。

報導說，面積三百五十平方公里的黑瞎子島自一九二五年被前蘇聯佔領後，就一直受俄國管轄。這次中俄簽署邊界劃界協議，中俄邊界有爭議的黑瞎子島被一切為二，俄羅斯將向中國交出島上約一百七十四平方公里土地。

至於中國何時能上島行使主權一事，報導說，目前有一種共同的說法是，目前準確劃界還沒有完全勘測完畢。待勘測完畢後，中國軍隊將於明年十月一日上島駐守。

（中央社台北二日電）中國軍事專家近日在上海舉行的﹁科學發展觀與國防經濟建設理論﹂研討會，提出﹁合理科學開發、充分利用國防經濟資源﹂，以及建置強大海軍的觀點，藉以提高國防經濟發展。

北京光明日報報導，與會專家認為，中國要發展國防工業就必須依據﹁大國防﹂觀念，從把握戰爭制勝的戰略制高點發展國防工業。國防經濟發展則必須堅持可持續發展的戰略目標，從經濟的﹁總量基礎﹂、﹁技術基礎﹂和﹁體制基礎﹂出發，實現國防和經濟建設協調發展。

同時，應合理確定國防經費投入比，推動中國國防工業﹁適度和有效發展﹂。

〔特派記者許紹軒╱中國珠海報導〕第五屆珠海航展，俄羅斯多家軍火公司展出先進裝備，包括外型特殊的SU-47戰機，以及已經出售給解放軍的Kh-31P反輻射飛彈，與AA-12先進中程空對空飛彈等，甚至出現無人飛行載具的預警機版，其中最引領風騷的生產者是研發蘇愷戰機的蘇愷設計局。

蘇愷設計局自研發出SU-27戰機之後聲名大噪，其中SU-47「金鷹」戰機更以特殊的前掠翼設計，引起各國關注。

據指出，蘇愷設計局透過把機翼前掠與使用向量推力發動機噴嘴的方式，讓戰機在超音速的狀態擁有足夠的機動性能，以應付即將服役的美軍F-22「猛禽」式戰機。此次航展中並未展出實機，雖然以模型取代，仍然吸引大量目光。

多種俄羅斯飛彈也在參展項目之列，其中有AA-12中程空對空飛彈。這型飛彈射程約為五十公里，台灣先前向美國採購AIM-120先進中程空對空飛彈，雖獲美方同意，但卻要求飛彈先儲存在關島，以免破壞台海軍事平衡，但自從解放軍引進AA-12之後，AIM-120便很快地運到台灣。

另外就是著名的Kh-31P反輻射飛彈，射程長達一百一十公里，可以追蹤輻射源，對於地面防空雷達與空中預警機，都具有很大的威脅，目前配備於SU-30戰鬥轟炸機。

MosNews

China has suspended the production of Su-27SK fighter jets under their Russian license, Russia’s Vremya Novostej newspaper reported on Tuesday, Nov. 2. According to Chinese military officials, these planes no longer satisfy the requirements of the Chinese Air Force.

The license to produce 200 fighter jets was purchased by China in 1996. The conditions of the contract stipulated that the jets would be assembled at Chinese plants using Russian components. The value of the contract amounted to $2.5 billion. However, after assembling 95 jets out of the planned 200, the Chinese side addressed the Sukhoi Construction Bureau with a request to stop deliveries of the assembly kits. The request was made in May, and neither side disclosed the reasons for the contract being suspended.

原合約為兩百架戰機，但建造九十五架後中國終止製造

Vremya Novostej quoted a source in the Russian delegation at Airshow China-2004 that opened on Monday, Nov. 1, as saying the Chinese side had requested the Su-27SK fighter jets be equipped with additional guided anti-ship missiles. However, this model of fighter jets was not designed to attack targets at sea.

（中央社台北三日電）中國新一代殲擊教練機「山鷹」明年底將通過設計定型，於二零零六年投產使用。

據中新社報導，在第五屆中國國際航空航天博覽會(珠海航展)上以一比十比例展出的「山鷹」高級教練機模型，引起航空愛好者的關注談論。「山鷹」是繼「梟龍」後，中國自主研製的又一種新型飛機。

中國一航貴州航空工業集團副總經理張尚道表示，「山鷹」高級教練機是中國航空工業第一集團公司立項、貴州航空工業公司投資研製的新一代高級教練機，研發人員不到兩年就實現「山鷹」首飛。

張尚道說，「山鷹」是一種通用型高級教練機，它的性能和設備配量「上接第三代戰鬥機、下接基礎教練機」，使飛機訓練在各階段能順利過渡。

三峽大壩駐軍透露，三峽大壩駐軍擔負的警戒水域安全保護範圍，是大壩上游兩千六百公尺和大壩下游兩千公尺內的區域。在這個警戒區域內，駐軍可以透過監測預警體系，及時了解和掌握任何可能的破壞活動。

三峽大壩駐軍負責人姚斌強調，三峽大壩的安全問題關乎中國國計民生，在國際反恐情勢日益緊張的狀況下，三峽大壩近幾年將陸續舉行更大規模的軍事演練。

姚斌透露，自二零零三年成立三峽駐軍船艇大隊一年多來，已經攔截非法進入警戒區域、對大壩構成安全威脅的船隻兩百多艘，逮捕犯罪分子八百多人次。

為了確保三峽大壩安全，三峽駐軍在大壩上至重慶、下至葛洲壩間，建立了一百五十多個觀測點，與沿岸政府相關單位緊密聯繫合作，建立包括海事局、航道局、庫區沿線的港口碼頭等在內的互聯網資訊反饋系統。

報導指出，三峽庫區安全目前還面臨諸多難題：

一、警力不足。萬州水上公安分局僅有一百餘名幹警，萬州各地方輪船公司開通了萬州至南京、宜昌等十多條航線，按照執法要求，每艘船上至少要有兩名警力，但萬州公安局水上分局只能在大一點的客船和重要的航段派出一名警員，小客船根本沒有辦法派出警員。

二、船上案件移交難。船上案件流動性高，再加上警力不足，很難人贓俱獲。由於偵破難度高，船上案件成為破不了的「死案」，立案越高，破案率就越低。

Russia turns Kilo sub over to China
俄國運交第一批兩艘改進型 KILO 潛艦給中國

The Admiralteiskiye Verfi shipyard in St. Petersburg turned over the
first of two improved Kilo-class attack submarines to Chinas navy
last week, according to the Interfax news agency.

Shipyard Director Vladimir Aleksandrov said Oct. 21 that shipyard
officials, the state-run exporters Rosoboronexport and the Chinese
navy had signed a document confirming the transfer of the submarine.

The date for second submarines delivery was not disclosed.

The two submarines were unveiled at the shipyard last summer and are
part of a Russia-China deal worth $1.5 billion that was signed in May
2002. The contract called for five submarines. Two are being built by
Admiralteiskiye Verfi while two others are being built by Sevmash in
Severodvinsk. The final one is being built by Krasnoye Sormovo in
Nizhni Novgorod.

The Kilos are considered one of the most advanced diesel electric
submarines in the world and will boost Chinas ability to conduct a
naval blockade of Taiwan.

Taiwans government is debating a special defense budget of some $18
billion that would include purchases of up to eight U.S.
diesel-electric submarines.

JDW
11/10/04

Beijing displays new tactical surface-to-surface system
ROBERT KARNIOL JDW Asia-Pacific Editor
Zhuhai
珠海航空秀展出中國新式短程地對地彈道飛彈
The China Aerospace Science & Industry Corps Second Academy unveiled a new tactical short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile weapon system under the designation B611 at this months Zhuhai air show.

Officials told JDW that the B6 missile at the systems core has been in production for several years but the twin-round six-wheel transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), weighing 24 tonnes, was completed only in 2003.

The system is aimed at both domestic and export markets, with indications that it is in production for the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA).

The B611 system comprises a TEL vehicle together with one command and control vehicle and one set of support equipment. The B6 missile has a stated range of 80 km to 150 km, with a high-explosive blast fragmentation warhead weighing 480 kg.

Each command and control vehicle is normally linked to six twin-round TELs, according to company sources.

It is unclear whether additional types of warheads are in development, although officials acknowledged these would be useful given PLA requirements. They also said the missile can be manoeuvred in flight, accepting parallels to the Russian SS-X-26 Stone (9M72 Iskander-E) short-range ballistic missile.

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僅供參考

China not Abandoning Continuation of Su-27SK Licensed Production
中國尚未放棄生產 Su-27SK

China is not abandoning continuation of Su-27SK licensed production, the Sukhoy OKB general designer, Aleksey Knyshev, declared to an ARMS-TASS special correspondent at the Airshow China-2004 air salon, commenting on reports which had appeared on this subject in a number Russian media.

Sukhoy 設計局設計總監 Aleksey Knyshev 在珠海航空秀對俄國媒體 ARMS-TASS 記者表示，中國沒放棄繼續生產 SU-27SK。

According to him, the other day he had taken part in a regular working round of discussions with the Chinese side on the topic.

他表示，另一天他還參與了跟中國對此的談判。

As is known, assembly of the SU-27SK under license is under way at the aircraft plant in Shengyang at a production rate of 15 aircraft per year. In all, the assembly of 200 Su-27SK airplanes is provided for. As of now, KnAAPO has delivered 105 airplane kits according to the first stage of the contract. The contract still had not been signed for the second stage of the program, which provides for the delivery of another 95 airplane kits.

SU-27SK 原訂以每年十五架的速度，共將生產二百架。截至目前為止，
KnAAPO 依照第一階段合約運交了 105 組機件。第二階段 95 組機件仍未簽約。

In the opinion of experts, some pause in the continuation of the licensed production of the Su-27SK is explained by two reasons. On the one hand, it is connected with averting the formation of too large a storage stock of spare parts. There are enough of those airplane kits which were delivered in the first stage of the contract considering the rate of production at the plant in Shengyang for another 2 ? years. As of now, 60 Su-27SK aircraft, which were assembled in accordance with the licensing agreement, have been transferred for service in the People’s Liberation Army of China’s air force.

Secondly, it has not been ruled out that the Chinese partners are examining an offer of the Russian side about the delivery of the remaining airplane kits not in the technical form which had been determined by the licensing agreement, but in the upgraded Su-27SKM variant. This airplane exceeds the capabilities of the Su-27SK, which is produced under license in Shengyang, in combat capabilities by 50 percent. In the event of China’s selection of the second variant, the receipt of corresponding decision documents and the conclusion of an inter-governmental agreement are needed which takes definite time.

In any case, according to the opinion of Russian specialists, licensed assembly will be continued. And the variant of selection of the technical aspect of the airplane is the customer’s jurisdiction.

　　据《解放軍報》 03日報道: 大机群編隊，多區域机動，高強度突擊。今天，連
續1個多月到陌生空域演練的空軍航空兵某團，以千里奔襲方式凱旋。連日來，該團
机群先后机動到華北、華南和東海等多個空域，在复雜環境中進行大強度遠程突擊
等課題演練，實現了某型戰机低空編隊協同等多項突破。
　　
　　9月上旬，隨著指揮員一聲令下，該團戰机千里奔襲至華北某地的陌生机場，与
裝備精良的“藍軍”展開全未知條件下的對抗。10月中旬，他們整建制机動到華東
某沿海机場，沒有組織預演就迅速升空，在云飛浪卷的陌生海天，從低空、超低空
編隊航行到戰區巡邏游獵，從編隊防御到對空對地攻擊，連續展開多個戰術課題，
使部隊的遠程奔襲作戰能力大幅度提高。
　　
　　在飛行現場，該團團長吳俊寶對記者說，未來空中戰場對戰机遠程突擊能力提
出愈來愈高的要求，若一廂情愿在家門口練兵，戰斗力難有大的提升。為此，他們
著眼軍事斗爭准備需要，以時不我待的緊迫感，制定多項舉措，加大訓練難度強度，
增加戰術課目訓練比例，每一個場次都組織戰法和戰術對抗。同時，他們堅持在惡
劣環境中摔打部隊，使所有飛行員都保持夜間和低气象條件机動的技術水平，能連
續升空遂行作戰任務。 （國有 記者譚洁）

http://military.china.com/zh_cn/news/568/20041101/11943941.html
中航技總公司宣布再次收購十二架K8高級教練机
2004-11-01 15:59:55
　　千龍网珠海11月1日訊(記者 宋大昭) 記者從正在舉行的新聞發布會上獲悉，

　　
　　鑒于K8高級教練机良好的使用前景，中航技總公司決定，2004年度，按第二個
100架收購計划，再次收購12架K8飛机。
　　
　　2003年3月12日，中國航空技術進出口總公司与中航第二集團所屬洪都航空工業
公司在北京簽訂合同，收購100架洪都生產的國產K8教練飛机以供出口。
　　
　　K8飛机是中航第二集團所屬洪都航空工業公司自主開發的一种可以承擔飛行員
基礎訓練和部分高級訓練任務的噴气式教練机，2002年獲得國家科技進步一等獎。
K8飛机自開發成功以來，外銷形勢很好，中航技公司已累計收購161架。1999年該机
型曾一次出口埃及80架，創造了我國一次出口飛机數量最多的記錄，同時也開創了
我國以技術轉讓形式出口飛机的先河。

http://military.china.com/zh_cn/news/568/20041101/11943224.html
中國軍工展出多款最先進的新型超低空防空導彈
2004-11-01 10:39:05

平可夫分析稱：新轟6武器更換 JH7A的加速生產
2004-11-05 09:57:55
　　据漢和珠海消息：平可夫通過2日“西飛”的電視錄像分析稱，中國“新H6”改
進型的雷達可能換裝了新的大直徑天線，因此，武器顯然也更換。巡航導彈的發射
試驗可能在順利進行之中。其次，JH7A的生產正在加快速度，但是由車間寬大但又
松散的JH7A布置狀況判斷，其生產能力還沒有最佳發揮，依然無法滿足軍隊需要。
是否是子系統的生產出現問題？還在分析之中。其次，通過對畫像進行仔細分析發
現，西飛可能在試驗新的指揮机或者電子偵察机。新型運輸机的維修工作也進展順
利。
　　
　　詳細分析將在12月號的《漢和防務評論》月刊刊登，屆時將有多張獨家圖片公
開。

大陸「軍事新聞網」昨天引述俄羅斯媒體的報導說，中共今年突然決定停止生產自俄羅斯引進生產線的蘇愷廿七ＳＫ戰機，原因是此型戰機缺乏對海攻擊能力，不能滿足中共解放軍的需要。

俄羅斯媒體指出，中共是在一九九六年從俄羅斯獲得組裝蘇愷廿七ＳＫ基本型戰機的許可證，根據雙方當時的協議，中共將在自己的工廠（瀋飛）組裝生產二百架蘇愷廿七ＳＫ，合同金額高達廿五億美元。

但中共在完成組裝九十五架蘇愷廿七ＳＫ後，今年突然要求俄羅斯軍火商霍伊公司停止供應飛機的組裝元件。

對此，目前正在珠海參加航空展的俄羅斯代表稱，由於蘇愷廿七ＳＫ沒有對海攻擊設計，而中共要求在該款戰機上加裝可控反艦導彈，俄方又認為這款戰機不能加裝，因此中共方面才決定停產。

事實上，早在中共與俄羅斯簽約組裝生產蘇愷廿七ＳＫ時，俄羅斯首席試飛員弗拉基米爾就曾公開表示，中共此舉並不明智，因為十至十五年後，蘇愷廿七ＳＫ就將在國際航空市場上變得一文不值。

（中央社台北七日電）因應台海戰爭可能出現兩岸導彈攻防戰的情況，上海市組織民兵成立防空導彈分隊，初步形成全天候火力防空與電子防空一體化的作戰能力，可擊落來襲的巡航導彈。這支上海民兵防空導彈分隊可以在海上、陸上對空射擊，是中國第一支民兵空運分隊。

據解放軍報報導，中共上海市委、上海市政府和警備區著眼於國防建設與經濟建設協調發展，為了順應新軍事變革需要所組建的上海民兵防空導彈分隊，近日在中國民兵訓練工作會議上首度亮相。

這支民兵防空導彈分隊在「海上防空導彈模擬訓練中心」演練，模擬一至六級海洋情況對空射擊，並根據導彈射擊指揮系統解決夜間作戰問題，使上海市民兵初步形成全天候火力防空與電子防空一體化作戰能力。

其中，徐匯區民兵地空導彈分隊近日參加成果匯報表演時，主射手胡惕以六秒鐘完成截獲、解鎖、跟蹤、擊發全部過程，擊落巡航導彈靶標。

據香港「大公報」報導，據在珠海航展的俄羅斯方面人士透露，俄羅斯正在同中國合作生產相控陣雷達，技術並不落後於西方先進國家。

報導說，此次俄羅斯帶來了祖克ＭＦＥ被動相控陣雷達發射單元和「長矛」Ｍ雷達，前者主要用於改進蘇愷二七、蘇愷三十戰鬥機，後者用於改進米格二一戰鬥機。

俄方人員表示，現在採用相控陣雷達是世界戰鬥機發展的大勢所趨，例如美國的Ｆ／Ａ二二、歐洲的「颱風」等戰鬥機都使用了這種雷達。

Janes Defence Weekly
November 10, 2004

New Variant Of Chinese Fighter Planned

By Robert Karniol, JDW Asia-Pacific Editor, Zhuhai

Chinas Guizhou Aviation Industry Group (GAIC) has revealed its design for the LFC-16, an innovative new fighter the company proposes to build based on a concept design known as the CY-1.

A model of the CY-1 displayed at the China Air Show 2002 featured sweptback, shoulder-mounted foreplanes plus what were described as side-plate canards, comprising a narrow rectangular surface each side of the fuselage from just below the foreplane trailing-edge to extreme tail. The tail had rectangular, downward-canted tailfins with small leading-edge strakes.

The twin-seat CY-1 was reportedly designed by Beijing SuperWing Technology Research Institute. It was described as a variant of the FTC-2000 advanced jet trainer, itself a proposed lead-in fighter trainer.

A model of the LFC-16 shown at China Air Show 2004 in Zhuhai from 1-7
November differed from the CY-1; this was a single-seat version described by officials as a night fighter. GAIC officials told JDW that two one-seventh scale models have been built for wind-tunnel testing with the expectation that a full-size prototype will be built within a year or two. The project has government support, they added.

The proposed aircraft would have a normal take-off weight of 9,000 kg, of which a maximum of 3,500 kg would comprise cargo. A practical ceiling of 17,000 m is envisaged with a maximum range of 2,800 km. Projected take-off unstick speed is given as 230 km/h to 250 km/h and landing touchdown speed as 210 km/h to 230 km/h.

華盛頓特派員張宗智／九日電 11/10 02:50

美國國務院亞太事務助理國務卿凱利九日在一場演講中表示，第二任布希政府的對台政策依然不變，但中共用飛彈這種「大規模毀滅性武器」對準台灣，讓事情非常不可能處理好。

凱利並說，美國希望兩岸有能力的人能找出解決問題的方法，而非彼此對衝（stick their thumbs in each others eyes）。

凱利應邀在華府威爾遜國際中心就美國的東亞政策發表演講。他在演說中對兩岸問題著墨極少，僅略提海峽兩岸需要對話。

不過，凱利在回答現場聽眾提出有關布希政府第二任期對台灣的政策時，表示不會改變。

凱利並提到他今年四月廿一日在國會眾議院國際關係委員會作證時，已曾就美國的兩岸政策提出極詳盡的聲明，但台海的問題複雜，美國希望和平解決，因此政策依然不變。

此外，凱利也就中共對台海部署飛彈表示，中國大陸的成長及隨之而來的軍事現代化（對中國）都有用處，但也在區域產生了不均衡。

凱利說，特別是中共用像飛彈一類的「大規模毀滅性武器」對準台灣，也使得（兩岸）的事情非常不可能處理好。

凱利在今年台灣總統大選後，四月廿一日到國會詳細說明美國的兩岸政策，凱利的證詞也被視為布希政府最詳盡的政策聲明。

證詞中提到，美國仍信守根據三項公報和台灣關係法所制訂的「我們的一個中國政策」；美國不支持台灣獨立，也不支持一些會改變美國所定義的「現狀」的片面行動。

11/10/04
China debuts L-15 trainer mock-up
ROBERT KARNIOL JDW Asia-Pacific Editor
Zhuhai

Chinas Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIG) displayed a full-size mock-up of its L-15 advanced jet trainer/light attack jet at China Air Show 2004, held in Zhuhai on 1-7 November. The company said it is due to enter serial production in 2007.

The L-15 was first revealed as a feasibility study in 2001 and a model of the aircraft was shown at China Air Show 2002.

Technical specifications revealed by HAIG are different from provisional data obtained earlier. These include a length of 12.27 m and a wing span of 9.48 m, compared with estimates of 15 m and 11 m respectively, with the mock-up extending 4.8 m in height.

The company said that normal take-off weight is 6,800 kg and maximum take-off weight is 9,800 kg, with each figure 300 kg greater than initially estimated. Maximum flying range is given at 3,100 km at a maximum level speed of M1.4.

China markets improved Red Arrow 9 missile
CHRISTOPHER F FOSS
JDW Land Forces Editor
London

China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) is marketing an enhanced pedestal-mounted version of its Red Arrow long-range anti-tank guided weapon (ATGW) system designated the Red Arrow 9A.

It was first revealed in 2002 when NORINCO released an artists impression of a new pedestal-mounted version of a Red Arrow 9 installed on a US AM General High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle chassis.

It has now been tested and installed on an Italian Iveco 40.WM 4 x 4 1,500 kg cross-country chassis. This is manufactured in China as the Nanjing NJ2046 High Mobility Vehicle by the Nanjing Iveco Motor Corporation: a joint venture between the Nanjing Motor Corporation and Iveco of Italy.

The Red Arrow 9A uses a new millimetre-wave semi-active command-to-line of sight (SACLOS) guidance system. Mounted on the left side of the pedestal is the optical tracker with the dish-type millimetre- wave command link being mounted forward and below. The complete system - the 4 x 4 cross-country vehicle, the launcher and reserve missile - weighs 2,800 kg. If necessary, the tripod-mounted system can be dismounted for deployment away from the vehicle.

According to NORINCO, the Red Arrow 9A missile uses an optical tracker and millimetre-wave command link to provide flight course corrections. A gunner detects and tracks a target using the day/night sighting system that establishes the line of sight from the launch platform to the target.

Once the missile has been launched, the angular deviation between the missile and the line of sight is measured by a TV goniometer. Corrective commands are encoded and transmitted to the missiles flight control unit.

This sends information to the four control fins that manoeuvre the missile until it hits the target.

The thermal sight, when fitted, enables targets to be detected at a range of over 4,000 m and engaged at 3,000 m.

The maximum range of the missile is 5,000 m. It is fitted with a tandem high-explosive anti-tank warhead to defeat targets fitted with explosive reactive armour (ERA). According to NORINCO this will penetrate 320 mm of conventional steel armour at an angle of 68º protected by ERA. The missile has a diameter of 152 mm and weighs 37 kg in its tube.

China has recently started marketing new types of warheads, including thermobaric ones, for its guided and unguided anti-tank weapons. It is considered probable that a thermobaric warhead will be offered for the Red Arrow 9 in the future.

When compared to earlier generation Red Arrow 9 systems, the new pedestal-mounted system is lighter and better suited to rapid deployment forces.

Its advanced millimetre-wave guidance system also offers a number of operational advantages and is claimed to be difficult to jam.

The baseline Red Arrow 9 ATGW has been in service with the Peoples Liberation Army for some time, installed on a 4 x 4 version of the WZ 551 6 x 6 series armoured personnel carrier.

Signal

China Pursues Antisubmarine Warfare
By James C. Bussert

Although Russian Sovremenny large missile destroyers are more than 20 years old, the models that China has purchased add state-of-the-art antisubmarine warfare (ASW) sensors and helicopters to the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
The People’s Republic takes a serious approach to undersea activities.

In keeping with its approach to incorporating blue-water-navy technologies for possible littoral uses, China is deploying a number of antisubmarine warfare systems to support potential conflicts against adversaries equipped with the most advanced submarines under the sea. As with most of China’s military, these systems constitute a mix of legacy import technologies with indigenous developments.

Many Pacific naval analysts do not believe that China has a real antisubmarine threat or that antisubmarine warfare (ASW) is a priority in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) new ship program. In fact, ASW is a high priority in naval new production. While some cite the lack of a PLAN ASW flag-rank staff as an indication of a low program priority, the U.S. Navy went without an ASW admiral billet for 15 years until recently, and no one questions the United States’ commitment to antisubmarine warfare. PLAN ASW platforms and equipment have been acquired, developed and deployed on submarine, surface ship and aviation platforms. The fact that many sensors and weapons are imported does not decrease the threat they pose to U.S., Taiwan or other nations’ submarines.

A number of modern Chinese ASW capabilities became operational in the mid-1980s, which is evidence of a decision to put considerable emphasis into upgrading ASW in the air, surface and submarine platforms. In the late 1990s, further modernization of these areas with new big ticket procurements provided the PLAN with modern ASW weapons and sensors in modest but increasing numbers. China has obtained multiplatform high-quality ASW sensors, fire control and weapons only in the past six years.

Consequently, in any future Taiwan Strait naval conflicts, other navies will need to consider the recent PLAN ASW modernization when moving submarines into Chinese waters. This is complicated by the fact that several Western nations have desired to sell new-construction or in-service submarines to Taiwan. Retaliation by China in the form of threats to stop trading with those nations caused most to back off to maintain open trade and future arms deals with the larger customer.

The most likely war probability involving submarines would be an attempt to force “the renegade illegal government on Taiwan” to be brought under People’s Republic of China political control by military means. The submarine threat against China initially would comprise two Dutch-built modern Taiwan boats, but the People’s Republic must prepare for the possible introduction of U.S. attack submarines into the arena. Targets for the pro-Taiwan submarines would be PLAN warships and probably Chinese harbors or coastal merchant supply lines. The presence of Tomahawk-equipped U.S. submarines would raise the ASW threat to a new level for inland targets.

Other potential conflicts also could entail submarine threats. China’s expansion into the South China Sea has led to contention with two other claimants to the Paracel and Spratley islands, but neither has any submarines. Of the six original nations with claims on these two island chains, only two—Taiwan and Indonesia—have submarines. These two countries have Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) treaty ties with other submarine-equipped navies, and these could represent ASW threats to China. Similarly, China’s expansion northeast or southwest would meet strong modern Japanese or Indian submarine forces.

Multiplatform improvements in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s indicate that Chinese government and naval leaders believe they face an ASW threat. U.S. Secretary of the Navy John Lehman’s visit to China in 1984 was intended to form a new relationship between the two navies. This plan included Chinese procurement of U.S. Navy weapons. Of all the potential naval weapons from which to choose, the MK 46 lightweight ASW torpedo was China’s first choice in 1985 negotiations. This was a rare insight into the internal PLAN priority list of warfare needs.

Coincidentally, 1999 saw the PLAN’s first fully coordinated surface, submarine and air ASW exercise. The fact that it involved China’s Northern Fleet is no surprise because Qingdao and the Dalian/Lushun complex are main centers of ASW bases and schools. The Northern Fleet also demonstrated excellent control and coordination in having a Han nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) intercept a U.S. carrier group in the Korean Gulf and vector naval air force interceptors out to support the submarine against U.S. ASW forces. In addition, Chinese submarine topographic units have been making underwater maps for submarine training areas and operations since 1960.

China has charged forward with surface ship ASW. Prior to 1985 new-construction warship designs, China’s 15 Luda destroyers and 31 escorts had Soviet-designed World War II-era high frequency (HF) searchlight Tamir sonars, Soviet BMB-2 depth charges and two Type 75 12-barrel mortars with a 2,500-meter range. In 1975, the Jianghu III series of new escorts introduced Type 81 copies of Soviet RBU-1200 five-barrel mortars. The 3,200-meter range of the Chinese Type 81 nearly tripled the Soviet RBU range. It is a mistake to assume that Chinese copies of foreign equipment do not have improved capabilities. The six follow-on Jiangwei frigates improved the Type 81 with two six-barrel mortars with a longer 5,000-meter reach, and these were called Type 87.

The small French SS-12 dipping sonar was exported to the PLAN in 1974. China must have made a high-level decision on antisubmarine shortfalls by 1980 because around 1986 several new ASW systems appeared. In 1986, the Luda II conversion and Jinghu IV frigate put the first helicopter decks on PLAN warships. Also, the first French TAVITAC combat direction system and Italian ILAS-3 ASW triple torpedo tube mounts were installed.

PLAN ASW torpedoes include the Italian A-244, copies of the U.S. MK 46 and several Soviet ASW torpedoes. Four years later, France sold modern medium frequency (MF) bow dome array DUBV-23 sonars to China, and the 1990 Luda III was the first publicized installation. This does not explain the Luda DDG 131 seen in Shanghai drydock with a large bow dome in 1982. The DUBV-43 large MF variable depth sonar (VDS) was installed on the Luhu in 1993, which made for a powerful ASW capability when coupled with the DUBV hull sonar.

Russia has provided the latest in airborne ASW sensors and weapons in the Ka-28 helicopters that it has sold to China. This version is an earlier Ka-25.
In 1998, Russia sold two 8,000-ton Sovremenny large missile destroyers to China. These included the latest Soviet MG-335 MF Platina and HF tracking sonars. Twin RBU-1000 six-barrel ASW mortar launchers are controlled by the Burya fire control system. China has ordered additional Sovremennys from Russia.

Also in the 1990s, China designed two Luhu large 5,800-ton destroyers, and it followed that by modernizing two Luhai destroyers. These had bow-mounted LF French sonars and ASW torpedo tubes, along with ASW helicopters with Italian or French integrated combat systems. Only the two Luhus have an MF VDS. All six of these large warships have modern ASW systems included with their other major warfare capabilities.

Because China has no active aircraft carriers, its naval air assets are low key. However, land-based and shipboard ASW air platforms have been expanded. Two new naval air ASW platforms were introduced in 1986. The Soviet AN-12 transport, designated by China as the Y-8, was redesigned by Shaanxi Aircraft Company and equipped with western ASW systems to become the first true People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force (PLANAF) Y-8-X maritime patrol aircraft. It has an APS-504 search radar, LTN-72 INS and LTN-211 Omega navigation by Litton Canada, various Collins guidance and landing transponders and an infrared submarine detection system. The weapons it carries include mines, depth charges, ASW torpedoes and sonobuoys.

An original Chinese-designed Harbin SH-5 four-engine seaplane with an ASW mission reached initial operational capability in 1986 at Qingdao Tuandao naval air station. A MAD stinger aft, sonobuoys, ASW torpedoes and depth charges show varied ASW capabilities. Ironically, the U.S. Navy has converted ASW maritime patrol aircraft for overland Tomahawk missions.

Six Chinese destroyers and 12 frigates equipped with helicopter decks initially had Z-9 helicopters that were copies of French Super Frelon, but only a few of these had French ASW avionics, including the SS-12 dipping sonar. The first Z-9 dates from 1985, and there are now 36 units, but only three are known to be equipped with dipping sonar. Photographs of Z-9s with externally mounted torpedoes show the Z-9s labeled as ASW helicopters. China negotiated with Russia for 12 modern Ka-28 Helix-A ASW helicopters in the 1998 Sovremenny deal. The PLAN now has ordered 12 more of these potent helicopters with sophisticated sensors, fire control and ASW weapons.

Soviet-era OKA-2 helicopter dipping sonars are 15 kilohertz with an active range of 5,500 meters and triple that range for passive detection. This helicopter has a next-generation Lira ASW system with a mission computer controlling all radio, radar, sonobuoy, dipping sonar and electronic support measures. The Kobalt radio relay links it to the controlling ship. Onboard weapons include Russian AT-1 active/passive acoustic homing ASW torpedoes, APR-2 ASW missiles or PLAB 250-120 Lastochka depth charges.

Chinese ASW efforts also include submarine platforms. In the 1970s, China augmented more than 60 obsolete Romeo diesel submarines and their obsolete Soviet HF sonars with two new Type 035 Ming diesel boats containing a mix of French and Soviet sonars. Several important ASW upgrades occurred in the mid-1980s. In 1987, the first Han-class SSN, which was built in 1974, received a modern French DUUX-5 imported sonar. The following year saw the launching of the first of three new Type 039 Song-class attack submarines in Wuhan shipyard with modern French TSM-2233 and TSM- 2255 sonars. Chinese submarine ASW torpedoes are Yu-3 21-inch acoustic homing torpedoes.

The PLAN submarine force received its most modern ASW capability with the inaugural order of four Kilo submarines, which was followed by six more. The first two imports were Russian 877E Kilo submarines in 1995. These quiet diesel boats had modern MGK-400 active/passive LF and HF MG-519 classification sonars with an associated MVU-110 electromagnetic combat system fire control suite. The next two in 1999 were newer 636 Kilo submarines with improved sonar and fire control. Six more 636s have been ordered and are being built and delivered. Export Kilos include Russian E53-67 acoustic homing ASW along with wire-guided and wake-homing types. The three Song-class submarines were surprisingly noisy, but a new version is quieter than prior PLAN diesels. However, Kilos still are among the quietest and most modern ASW submarines in the world.

記者王玉燕／台北─北京報導 11/11 04:01

中共軍方人士昨天明白表示，陳水扁總統九月底、呂秀蓮副總統十月初飛往澎湖視察時，兩人專機一起飛，即被中共軍方「鎖定」。中共並派出軍機巡飛海峽中線，目的在對台灣當局領導人宣誓國家主權，反對台獨。

不過，中共軍方人士否認共軍軍機有飛越海峽中線之舉，也否認那段時期共軍在進行演習。

中共軍方人士表示，中共南京軍區、廣州軍區及福建基地的軍機，在大陸沿海經常進行例行訓練及巡弋。而台灣當局領導人只要是巡視外島，飛機一升空，中共軍方一定立即鎖定目標，並派出軍機「保護領土」；同時，中共沿海軍區也進入一級警戒。

中共軍方人士明白指出，中共軍機若要攻擊陳水扁的座機，易如反掌，但中共不會這麼做。出動軍機的目的，在告訴台灣當局領導人，如果一直推動台獨分裂活動，尋求台灣獨立，中共軍方完全有能力維護國家的主權完整。

中共軍方人士同時表示，出動軍機也在告訴「鄰近」國家，解決台灣問題是中國內部的事，外國不要想插手干預。一旦台海發生危機，共軍能在第一時間取得制空及制海權。

據悉，中共巡弋大陸東南沿海，並貼近海峽中線，今年三二○後明顯較過去次數增加。中共軍方人士不諱言，這是共軍因應台灣當局台獨動作越來越明顯的作法。

中共軍方人士透露，四年前陳水扁當選總統，中共對台有關軍區即開始做增強戰力的準備；今年中共舉行中央委員擴大會議，明訂增加對台武器經費，列入國家經費重點支出第三位。

中共軍方人士表示，三二○後，中共軍方針對未來對台「軍事鬥爭」，進行各項對台軍事演習，演練各種攻台戰略戰術，這些演習均已結束。今年九月廿五日在河南確山訓練基地所進行「鐵拳──二○○四」，是對台軍演總結大會師。而中央軍委主席胡錦濤在軍委擴大會議上的指示「共軍當前最重要、最現實、最緊迫的戰略任務，是要抓緊做好軍事鬥爭準備」，是共軍全軍對台軍事行動最高指導方針。

Aviation Week & Space Technology 11/08/2004,

David A. Fulghum Washington

China plans a more sophisticated line of military exports as it continues to buy Russian technology

Trading Up

U.S. officials are closely studying what was displayed at the Zhuhai air show. Theyre looking for clues about what China is selling and buying, and how those transactions may change the makeup and tactics of its military forces. At the top of the items of interest that have already caught the U.S. Defense Dept.s collective attention is a 7% increase in value in arms agreements during the last year that include spending $1 billion for 24 Sukhoi Su-30 fourth-generation multirole fighters and $500 million for the advanced, long-range, high-altitude Antei-Almaz S-300 PMU2 (SA-20) surface-to-air missile.

OTHER WEAPONS of interest include the Chengdu J-10 fighter (which bears a resemblance to the Israeli Lavi fighter and reportedly benefited from that countrys technological transfers), the continuing development of the indigenous HQ9 SAM (a variant of the Russian S-300) and the development of land-attack cruise missiles for theater and strategic missions. Cruise missiles are a cheaper, more survivable alternative to developing a modern bomber.

In fact, classified studies began circulating in the Pentagon in 1992 regarding the emergence, about now, of stealthy cruise missiles on the world export market. As a defensive measure, the U.S. developed the active electronically scanned array radar (for the F/A-22, F/A-18E/F, F-35 and E-10 aircraft) that can detect and target small, stealthy flying objects, and the AIM-120C-6 version of the Amraam for more precisely striking small, slow targets in a head-on attack. The system has been flying for the last couple of years on 18 F-15Cs specially modified by Raytheon and Boeing to develop cruise missile defense tactics.

Overlaying the interest in weapon systems are Pentagon analyses of Chinese plans for modernizing the countrys military forces. Chinese military leaders are still assessing their lessons learned from observing U.S. operations in Kosovo and Iraq, according to the Defense Dept.s 2004 report to Congress. They are rethinking the concept inferred from [Kosovo] that airpower alone is sufficient to prevail in a conflict, the report says. An important addition to the formula for success is the integration of psychological operations with air and rapid ground operations . . . to target enemy leadership, its ability to communicate and its will to fight.

The two conflicts have reinforced the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) decision to accelerate acquisition of improved information technology, weapons mobility and precision weapons. Added to the fast track will be advanced C4ISR (command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and interservice cooperation, say U.S. analysts. The Chinese also are expected to continue research into electronic warfare, long-range radar surveillance and aerial refueling aircraft.

The new J-10 fighter (pictures of which are circulating on the Internet) did not appear at Zhuhai, but its expected to debut soon. At some point they are going to have to get it out there, especially with their future goal to sell more sophisticated weapon systems, says a Defense Dept. analyst. It would be the first quality weapons system they have for the export market. But its still in development, and I dont think they are actively trying to seek contracts right now.

If the Chinese can field a high-performance fighter, it is considered a logical step for them to compete with the Russians. However, the competition is going to be fierce, especially against MiG, which is pulling out all the stops to gain market share, according to international aerospace officials. The Chinese will have to start offering some viable, modern pieces of equipment to stay competitive, the defense analyst says. Theyve been somewhat successful with the K-8 trainer, but its going to be very difficult for them to keep market share with F-7 and J-8 variants.

China has made a recent sale of F-7s to Pakistan, but that was partly because no one else would sell to them during the crisis with India. There have been no international sales of the J-8-II. I think part of that is, the J-7 is a common airframe [with the MiG-21] and everybody has them, so its easier to bring into the inventory and integrate, the analyst said. The only country that operates the F-8 is China; so for support, [a foreign operator] is going to be lined up behind the Chinese units, since that still is one of their premier fighters.

The Chengdu FC-1 lightweight fighter is being built jointly with Pakistan. We dont know what Chinas plans are for taking it into their [own] inventory, the analyst says. I think that with the pace of Indian modernization, the Pakistanis realize China is the only way of getting advanced aircraft with full-up systems, and they are going to have to push for something a little better than the J-7 they have now. India bought upgraded MiG-21s from Russia while the Pakistanis were getting the upgraded J-7s from China. However, theres a big difference. The Russian-modernized aircraft have a beyond-visual-range air-to-air combat capability.

In addition to the J-10, U.S. officials will be watching to see if China is marketing the HQ9 strategic SAM, a variant of the SA-10.

They are the same class of system, the analyst says. I wouldnt expect to see it marketed because its still in testing, but it would be interesting to see if there were feelers out there--if they were trying to develop that niche along the lines of the J-10 project.

I wouldnt expect them to try to sell the J-10 and HQ9 as an integrated package because theres no real market, he says. Chinas market right now is South Asia and Africa. There are a lot of people buying in Africa, and not just from the Chinese. But they arent full-up systems. A lot of sales weve seen over the last several years are status buys. Most of those countries arent able to adequately train and develop the capability. They are purchases just to give them a modern showpiece. Its primarily small batches of F-7s and K-8s and [shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles] all over the place.

THE U.S. REGARDS Iran as the most likely customer for a strategic surface-to-air missile since its one of the few countries that could afford them.

They have received equipment and technological support from the Chinese in the past, the analyst says. Strategic air defense systems are a big money pit. While the training requirement is lower than developing pilots for an air force, it does cost money to send your operators over to get them trained, and with a large country, even a long-range SAM only gives you limited coverage.

Coming full circle, the Chinese military has its own shopping list. It will be interesting to see what the Russians are marketing to the Chinese, the defense analyst says. It has only been a couple of years [since the Chinese received the first Su-30] and they have already had deliveries of the [more advanced] Su-30MKKs and Su-30MK2s. The latter is a naval variant with modified Slotback radar with a maritime mode and the AS-17B antiship missile.

There were 24 MK2s and 78 MKKs contracted for and delivered, and there are rumors of more purchases, possibly including an MK3, he says. It makes sense that they will enter into further contracts because it will take them a while to get the production line going on the J-10 and to build the number they need to fill out their air force. There are probably a dozen or fewer J-10s, but from what weve seen, the development program seems pretty successful.

The Pentagon tells Congress that rising personnel costs and the enforced divestiture of a number of PLA enterprises have crippled the militarys funding sources, but planning is still ambitious. The J-10 may turn out to be more than just an interceptor.

The Chinese want multirole aircraft, the analyst says. It may be that the J-10 comes out as an air-to-air fighter initially and then transitions to a multirole aircraft. I cannot get into Israeli input into the aircraft. Since the Phalcon deal [which triggered U.S. opposition to Israel building an AWACS aircraft for China], the Israelis are very careful about what they have been doing.

So far, China has not been able to integrate its advanced aircraft into a modern striking arm. They are transitioning from the J-7s and J-8s to modern designs, he says. With that many new aircraft, it just takes time to train pilots. As far as the level of tactical proficiency, they are improving but they are at an early point in being able to employ those aircraft. The radar on the Su-30MKK is as good as the one on the Su-27 that has been recognized as a very capable fighter by Western air forces. But weve not seen them moving away from the ground-controlled intercept type of operation. That is still the norm. They have not demonstrated the tactical flexibility displayed by the Indian air force [which also flies the Su-30].

The U.S. is currently most concerned about the high-quality deliveries from the Russians that include the R-27 (AA-10 Alamo), R-73 (AA-11 Archer) and R-77 (AA-12 Adder) air-to-air missiles as well as precision air-to-ground weapons. IN CERTAIN AREAS [like semiactive air-to-air missiles and air-to-surface weapons] the Chinese will try to reverse engineer, but I would expect the purchase from the Russians to continue for quite a while, the analyst says. The Su-30 really opened the door to a lot of weapons they never had before. I would be surprised--particularly with their desire to develop a precision strike capability--if after they received those weapons they chose not to pursue them any further, whether through additional purchases, agreements or reverse engineering.

Right now, we dont know what the weapons load on the J-10 will be, but we imagine that after purchasing the Su-30 with all its capabilities we will see them trying to incorporate those systems on the J-10. Theyve stated clearly that its the capability they want to move to. Their ability to do all the integration is a big question. Can they put all the weapons on the J-10 and make everything work?

Chinas Air-to-Air Radar Competition

A three-way battle is emerging in a potential radar upgrade for Chinas Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 combat aircraft, pitting domestic and Russian manufacturers against one another.

The Su-27 and Su-30MKK aircraft operated by the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) are fitted with versions of the Russian NIIP N-001 cassegrain radar developed originally for the Su-30 Flanker in the 1980s. Although improved versions of this radar are being supplied, Russian officials at Air Show China said the PLAAF is interested in a further radar and avionics upgrade. This would also cover license-produced Su-27s, known as the J-11.

Alongside NIIP, Russian radar-manufacturer Phazotron is entering the fray, while Chinas Nanjing Electronics Institute is offering a multirole pulse Doppler radar its developing.

The PLAAF may make a decision on the radar upgrade program during 2005, say Russian sources. Russian officials also claim that China has declined the offer of license-producing the N-001, preferring to develop or acquire a modern system.

Phazotron industry executives say the N-001 has suffered as a result of its Soviet-era heritage. Components once sourced from within the USSR are now produced in a number of countries.

Two significant upgrades of the N-001 have so far been provided to the PLAAF. NIIP officials say these are the N-001VE, which allows PLAAF Su-27s to be flown with the Vympel R-77 (AA-12 Adder). Around 200 of these Russian missiles have been bought by the PLAAF in several batches.

The abililty to use this active radar-guided air-to-air missile provides a significant improvement in the PLAAFs inventory. The N-001VE enables the upgraded aircraft to engage two targets simultaneously using the R-77.

The second upgraded radar is provided with the Su-30MKK. Designated the N-001VEP, this introduces air-to-surface modes in support of the use of air-to-ground weaponry. Further improvements will be tested on an Su-30MK2 early next year.

Phazotron will offer its Zhuk-MSE slotted-array radar as its upgrade proposal, while NIIP will likely propose its N-001VEPF, a passive, electronically scanned variant of the original radar.

Whether the PLAAF will eventually try to standardize a radar across its fleet of Flanker versions, including its license-manufactured J-11, is not yet clear.

While coproduction of the N-001 may have held little interest for Beijing, some Russian officials suggest a joint program remains a possibility. Phazotron officials did not rule out this option, noting it has in the past provided some technical assistance to Nanjing.

Phazotron, however, also has previous experience pursuing radar opportunities in China. A version of its Zhuk radar was test-flown on a Shenyang F-8IIM aircraft. This type is known to have been offered to Iran and Egypt, though neither country opted to purchase the aircraft. An upgraded version for the PLAAF is fitted with a radar from the Nanjing institute.

Another factor which could influence a PLAAF decision, particularly on the J-11 variant of the Flanker, may be its interest in integrating the SD-10/PL-12 active radar-guided AAM on the aircraft. This Chinese missile is in the final stages of development, and is understood to have already been integrated with a Nanjing radar in the course of the test program.

Douglas Barrie London

Chinas air force is beginning to turn around years of neglect and decay

Great Leap Forward . . . In Small Steps

Chinese airpower is in the midst of a difficult transformation as its military attempts to modernize. Part of this renewal involves buying foreign technology like Russias Su-27 family of aircraft and SA-20 strategic surface-to-air missiles. A parallel, harder-to-track trend is the effort by Chinas defense industries to stretch themselves by developing more sophisticated indigenous aircraft and missiles. This is a key concept for revitalizing the nations aging line of military exports, which--if successful--would help fund modernization. China also is contemplating a more aggressive competition with Russian exporters such as fighter airframer MiG and anti-aircraft missile manufacturer Antei-Almaz. Some of the fruits of this investment were on display Nov. 1-7 at Zhuhai during Air Show China. The following stories look at Chinas growing number of fighter and missile programs, and offer a Washington perspective of why the countrys aspirations, as well as its potential as an arms exporter, are attracting the Pentagons interest.

Chinas is a historic and ancient culture; unfortunately for the countrys air force, so is much of its combat aircraft inventory.

Shackled by aged fleets built upon late-1950s Soviet designs, much of the air force today remains woefully inadequate to meet the challenges of 21st century air warfare.

A significant part of the Chinese fighter fleet is based on types better suited to museum displays than to the flight line. The J-6 and J-7 persist in service, despite both being license-built copies of vintage Soviet designs--the MiG-19 and MiG-21, respectively. Meanwhile, its bomber fleet is built around the Xian H-6, a licensed copy of the Tu-16 Badger. The license agreements covering these types stretch back to the late 1950s and early 1960s. China also lacks specialized support aircraft, such as electronic warfare and reconnaissance platforms.

While China has fourth-generation fighters in its inventory, many types can still trace their lineage back to Soviet-era aircraft. This flight line shows (from bottom) J-6s, J-7s and J-8s from the China Flight Test Establishment. The J-6 is no longer in front-line service, but the J-7 remains in widespread use.Credit: SINODEFENCE.COM

In fact, the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) remains an armed service in the throes of a prolonged transition. And its undergoing its own revolution in military affairs--the pace and course of which are not always comparable with its Western counterparts. While its equipment refurbishment program is visible to observers, just as important are the changes to doctrine and operational strategies required to exploit the hardware being introduced.

Of Chinas armed forces, the PLAAF is arguably the greatest beneficiary of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Having watched carefully crafted efforts to collaborate with the West crumble as a result of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the PLAAF was in the early 1990s fortunate to find a willing partner in Russias aerospace sector, which was scrambling to offset the crash in the domestic market.

The J-10 fighter is a crucial program for the PLAAF. The aircraft now appears to be in the initial stages of service evaluation. If successful, its liable to see widespread deployment with the air force.

Struggling with indigenous efforts to produce adequate fourth-generation combat aircraft, the PLAAF was presented with the opportunity to acquire the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker and to negotiate license manufacture of the type. Agreement covering the first batch of aircraft was reached in 1991, a mix of Su-27SK and Su-27UBK two-seaters, with deliveries underway by mid-2002. Further deals have led to agreement over license manufacture of the Su-27, known as the J-11, as well as the purchase of the Su-30MKK two-seaters. Some 76 Su-27SKs and -UBKs as well as 70 Su-30MKKs have been purchased so far; 20-30 J-11s probably have been delivered. The license agreement was inked in late 1996 and reportedly covered the production of 200 J-11s for the PLAAF.

The Su-27 provides the Chinese air force with a modern heavy tactical fighter and, in its Su-30MKK variant, with a capable multirole strike platform. However, the services ambitions and needs stretch far beyond a substantial fleet of Flankers.

Besides license production of the J-11, Chinese industry has at least four other combat types in development--the Chengdu J-10, Chengdu FC-1, a version of the Shenyang J-8II and the Xian JH-7A strike aircraft. Preliminary efforts looking at a heavy fighter design to potentially succeed the J-11 are also underway.

Recognizing the need to replace the Chengdu JJ-7 (MiG-21UB Mongol) in the advanced jet trainer role, two programs are in development--the Chengdu JJ-9/FTC-2000 and the Hongdu L-15. The former is based on the JJ-7 airframe; the latter is a new design with possible Russian involvement.

The most important of these programs for the PLAAF is the J-10. Although the aircraft has yet to be officially unveiled, images of prototypes and early production-standard aircraft have been disseminated, suggesting at least tacit state approval. Originally conceived in the early 1980s, the program has progressed at a leisurely pace, but the type now seems to be edging toward service entry.

Despite denials, the J-10 design reinforces suspicions that Chengdu received considerable help from Israel on the program. The overall aircraft planform is strongly reminiscent of the canceled Israel Aircraft Industries Lavi. The single-engine delta-canard design constitutes a complement to the J-11 in that it will provide a replacement for the J-7 and J-6, and also fulfill some of the roles now met by the Q-5 as a medium-weight multirole combat platform.

A first prototype flew in the second half of the 1990s. What now appears apparent is that, alongside Israeli involvement, Russia also provided substantial support. The aircrafts powerplant is widely reported to be a version of the Saturn-Lyulka Al-31 engine, first developed for the Su-27.

As for which radar the aircraft will use, the most likely indigenous candidate is from the Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology. This is a planar array pulse Doppler radar referred to as either Type 1473 or KLJ-3. The radar is also likely to be part of a further upgrade of the J-8, sometimes referred to as the J-8IIF.

J-8IIs in PLAAF service are now limited, at best, to operating with semiactive radar-guided air-to-air missiles. Although both Russian and Chinese semi-active missiles have been integrated on J-8II versions, the extent to which these have made it into service remains a point of conjecture.

The SD-10/PL-12 will also be the primary air-to-air armament of the J-10. So far, however, images of the aircraft have shown it carrying mockups of either the infrared-guided PL-8 or the semiactive radar-guided PL-10/11. Eight prototype aircraft were reportedly built, with more than a dozen production standard J-10s also delivered. If the aircraft approaches the PLAAFs expectations, its likely to be procured in considerable numbers.

Along with its efforts on the J-10, Chengdu has also finally had some success with its long-running light fighter project. The FC-1/JF-17, as the effort is now called, had its beginnings in the 1980s. Indeed, at one point, it was a Sino-American program, the Super 7, with the then-Grumman company as the U.S. partner. Washingtons participation was terminated following the Tiananmen Square massacre.

At least three prototypes of the FC-1/JF-17 have been assembled so far; the first aircraft flew in September 2003. Pakistan is participating and is the lead customer for at least 150 aircraft. The PLAAF has yet to formally commit to acquiring the FC-1, although the platform--intended to be comparatively low-cost--could prove attractive.

The avionics and radar fit on the Pakistani aircraft has yet to be determined, with both Western and Russian systems on offer. A Chinese purchase, however, would almost certainly see the use of indigenous equipment, with the possibility of maximizing commonality with the J-10.

The FC-1 and J-10, however, appear distinctly racy compared with the Shenyang J-8 and Xian JH-7 projects. Work on the J-8 began in the mid-1960s, and it has been the focus of continuous, if sluggish, upgrade projects.

The latest development of the J-8 family, possibly known as the J-8IIF, provides the aircraft with an improved air-intercept radar, as well as the ability to use the active radar-guided SD-10 BVR air-to-air missile. Yet to be determined is whether this variant makes it into the PLAAF fleet, or whether the aircraft may be aimed at export customers.

Similar questions remain concerning the JH-7A, the latest development of the JH-7 strike aircraft that first flew in 1988. A limited number of the basic JH-7 has entered service with naval aviation units for the maritime strike role. The lack of an adequate powerplant, and an inability to license-produce the Rolls-Royce Spey, curtailed introduction of the first aircraft model into service. In 2000, a deal was reached with Rolls-Royce for an additional batch of second-hand Spey engines, allowing the production of further JH-7s.

The JH-7A represents an upgrade with improved avionics and radar. The powerplant has yet to be confirmed. Compared with the JH-7, the -7A can carry a broader range of air-to-surface weapons, including the Zvezda-Strela Kh-31 (AS-17 Krypton) family of rocket-ramjet missiles, known as the YJ-91 in China.

The JH-7A will likely be used by Chinese naval aviation to bolster the comparatively limited number of strike Su-30MKK aircraft ordered in 2002. Whether the JH-7A will ever enter service with the PLAAF remains an open question, given its access to the Su-30MKK. China may also have an eye on one or two specific export customers for the JH-7, sometimes referred to as the FBC-1.

The Chengdu FC-1, or JF-17 as the light fighter is known in Pakistan, is showing success as a program and has been eyed as a replacement for the J-6, J-7 and Q-5 fighter and attack aircraft by China and Pakistan.

WHILE THE SU-30MKK provides the PLAAF with a very capable strike platform, as of yet, not nearly enough have been fielded. Russian officials have in the past suggested that China has ambitions to also license-produce this model of the Flanker.

If at the tactical strike level the PLAAF has modern equipment, even in comparatively limited numbers, its strategic platform remains firmly rooted in the 1950s. The Xian H-6 is a license-built version of the Tupolev Tu-16 and continues to be used by the PLAAF in a variety of roles. The aircraft will, for instance, carry the air forces first land-attack cruise missile, the YJ-63, which is nearing service entry.

Attempts to secure the Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber from Russia as a successor to the H-6 in the early 1990s foundered on concerns in Moscow that it was merely providing a stick to beat its own back. While Russia continues to provide substantial technology and support to China, there remains a reticence to offer strategic platforms.

The planned withdrawal of some Tu-22M3s from the Russian air force may once again pique Beijings interest in that type of medium bomber.

As well as providing Chinas long-range bomber, the H-6 is also being utilized in a number of other roles. Along with reinvigorating its front-line combat fleet, the Chinese military is also attempting to acquire or develop the support and special mission aircraft increasingly required in contemporary air warfare.

The H-6 airframe is being used for the tanking role; a dozen or so aircraft have been converted to support J-8 fighters.

However, with the J-10 production-standard aircraft thought to have an in-flight refueling probe, as does the Su-30MKK, the PLAAF is in the market for a more capable tanker. The Ilyushin Il-78 Midas remains an obvious candidate, particularly given that the air force already uses the similar Il-76 Candid as a heavy transport.

The Candid also appears to be the basis of a prototype airborne early warning and control (AEW&C;) aircraft, another capability that the air force wishes to fill. In the past, the service has attempted to purchase AEW&C; technology from the U.K. with the Argus system, and the Phalcon system from Israel. Chinas latest effort, likely designated the KJ-2000, is now in the trial phase. Images show an Il-76 modified with a rotodome. Whether this houses a fixed or rotating radar array has yet to be determined.

Early warning and control aircraft and tankers represent just two of the broad range of special mission aircraft the PLAAF is interested in either introducing or modernizing. Electronic warfare and tactical/strategic reconnaissance capabilities are also likely priorities.

Konstantin Lantratov
Kommersant, No. 209, November 10, 2004, p. 14

/WPS Summary: Russias display at Airshow China 2004 was mostly made up of the latest technology: products now at the stage of being ready for export. Moreover, Rosoboronexport was able to hold a number of meetings during the expo that have resolved some disputed issues in arms exports to China./

WPS Subject: Russian military aviation exports to China continue

Over the past few years, China has repeatedly complained to its Russian partners that they are selling obsolete military hardware. Apparently having taken the strategic partners wishes into account - and Chinas status as a strategic partner was confirmed during President Vladimir Putins recent visit to Beijing - Russias display at Airshow China 2004 was mostly made up of the latest technology: products now at the stage of being ready for export. Moreover, Rosoboronexport (Russian Defense Exports, which handles all arms deals with China) was able to hold a number of meetings during the expo that have resolved some disputed issues in arms exports to China.

The decision about continuing licensed assembly of Su-27 fighters in China was the largest success. The contract for licensed production of 105 fighters in the Su-27SK version in the aircraft plant in Shangyang (China) and option for 95 vehicles was concluded in 1996. The total amount of the contract came to $2.5 billion and the term of realization is 15 years. However, China assembled 105 Su-27SK fighters and didnt hasten to use the option. It considered these plans to be morally obsolete. Aicraft construction holding company Sukhoi developed upgraded project Su-27SKM and the latter was demonstrated at the expo in China. To all appearances, the upgraded variant satisfied the Chinese.

JDW
11/17/2004 Issue

Chinas Su-27s may fall short in capability
Robert Hewson Editor Janes Air-Launched Weapons
Zhuhai, China

The Russian-supplied upgrade for Chinas licence-built fleet of Sukhoi Su-27SK single-seat fighter aircraft, produced by Shenyang as the J-11, is not as advanced or far-reaching as once believed, sources have told JDW.

Earlier reports suggested China was close to fielding upgraded Su-27SKs that delivered a level of multirole capability approaching that of Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Su-30MKK aircraft.

To date only a limited new air-to-air capability has been added to the upgraded aircraft and China has not made meaningful steps towards producing an indigenised Su-27 fitted with Chinese-built engines, weapons, radar or avionics. Furthermore, Russian industry sources have said that China is moving to halt J-11 production on the grounds that the design is out-dated and lacking in overall capability.

Upgrade work for Chinas J-11s began earlier this year under the leadership of Russias Technocomplex group. Currently, several 10s of aircraft have been refitted under this programme, sources said. The main feature of this upgrade is centred around changes to the aircrafts Tikhomirov Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Design (NIIP) N-001 radar, that add the ability to fire the Vympel RVV-AE (Nato: AA-12 Adder) active-radar air-to-air missile (AAM). The improved N-001VE can control a simultaneous engagement with two RVV-AE missiles.

The improved radar is not being built into aircraft on the production line. Instead, each J-11 produced by Shenyang has its radar shipped to Russia for upgrade by NIIP before being reinstalled by Chinese technicians. NIIP has offered several growth options for PLAAF J-11s including a further improved radar and the ability to launch the Kh-31 air-to-surface missile. None of these options have yet been taken up and the company says little interest has been expressed in acquiring a multirole J-11.

Neither are the upgraded J-11s compatible with Chinas own active-radar AAM, the PL-12 (SD-10).

According to NIIP, China has not asked for PL-12 integration and the company has been given no technical information on the missiles operating modes whatsoever. It has long been thought that PL-12 capability was a cornerstone of Chinas J-11 upgrade plans.

China is also understood to be developing its own advanced fire-control radars, perhaps to pair with the PL-12.

NIIP sources told JDW that, in their experience, local progress in radar development has been slow and Chinas capabilities still lag about 15 years behind the leading edge of radar technology.

記者盧德允／台北報導 11/14 02:41

中共軍力邁向現代化，不能缺少空中預警機這種戰具和運用能力，近十年來也努力籌建這種戰力，但遇到很大阻力，國軍將領評論，中共就算已有空中預警機服役，距離建立真正的空中預警、管制和協同作戰能量，還需要時間。


中共自行摸索預警機，據知主要有兩大研製方向，一是採A五十的設計，將已擁有的伊留申七十六型運輸機，加上自行研製或外購的雷達，設於機背的支架上；其名稱為「新預警」。從已知圖像顯示，其雷達和支架設計，起碼有兩種。另一是用運八運輸機為載台，將預警雷達置於加大尺寸的機鼻裡，可能稱作「高新二號」。

中共並未因美國封鎖其購買以色列預警機而受挫，反而自行發展雷達偵察機，而且已進行試飛，準備儘早在台灣海峽部署。

中共的空中警告及控制系統，使用自製的先進雷達裝配在俄羅斯製造的伊留申七十六型運輸機上。以電子武器監視廣大空域並管控廣大戰場上空的戰機，一直是中共近年全面軍事改造的重點，而空中預警機一直被軍方視為奪取台灣海峽空優不可或缺的利器。

北京一名外國軍事武官說：「一定要有預警機，否則那也去不了。」

自從美國於二○○○年向以色列施壓，迫其撤消出售隼式相列陣位雷達予中共的協定，中共軍方始終不放棄獲取空中雷達預警機的目標。

中共原簽約購買四套這種雷達，價值十億美元，也是以俄製伊留申七十六型運輸機為平台。

美國擔心中共有了這種空中雷達預警設備後，在對台軍事上取得明顯優勢。中共軍方決心取得這種飛機。美國的中共軍事專家費學禮說：「兩千年向以色列購買的計畫失敗後，解放軍決定要爭一口氣，向美國證明他們也可以有預警機。」

中共首先向其傳統軍火來源俄羅斯求助，簽下合約購買四架貝瑞耶夫A五十Mainstay雷達機，這種飛機和美國空軍的E3哨兵空中預警機相似。

但中共同時也自行開發預警雷達系統。向俄羅斯訂購的雷達機是否交運，目前不得而知，因為若已交運，中共即可藉俄機觀摩所需技術，或從以色列或俄羅斯技師獲得技術支援。無論如何，中共開始試飛的預警機外觀很像A五十。

如果順利，中共的預警機一、兩年內就可成軍。目前不知道中共計畫建造幾架這種飛機，但費學禮說中共如果要廿四小時監控台灣海峽，至少必須要八架預警機。

美國國防部至今未對有關中共發展預警機計畫有所回應。

無論最後要製造幾架，預警機是海峽兩岸軍備競賽的一種，這使台灣海峽成為世界上最危險的地區之一。

http://taiwansecurity.org/WP/2004/WP-131104.htm
China Now Test-Flying Homemade AWACS
Radar Planes Intended For Use in Taiwan Strait

By Edward Cody

Washington Post, Nov. 13, 2004; Page A19

The Chinese military, undeterred by a U.S. veto that blocked the purchase of Israeli planes, has developed its own radar surveillance aircraft and is test-flying the first models for early deployment in the Taiwan Strait, according to military specialists.

The Chinese airborne warning and control system, or AWACS, uses domestically produced advanced radar mounted on a Russian-made Il-76 transport aircraft. Analysts said the AWACS marks an important step in the governments campaign to develop the modern military necessary to back up its threat to reunite Taiwan with the mainland by force if necessary.

Electronic weaponry -- in this case, equipment to monitor the skies and control warplanes over a wide battlefield -- has been a major focus of extensive military improvements in recent years. In particular, AWACS has long been seen by the military as an indispensable tool for air superiority over the 100-mile strait separating Taiwan from the mainland.

Youve got to have those AWACS up there or youre not going anywhere, said a foreign military attache in Beijing describing Chinas need for such a system in the event of conflict with Taiwan.

Chinese military technicians have been struggling to acquire AWACS-type equipment since the United States pressured Israel in 2000 to back out of a $1 billion agreement to sell China four of its Phalcon phased-array radar systems. The systems also would have used Il-76 aircraft as a platform.

The main U.S. concern in blocking the sale was that China would gain a military advantage over Taiwan. Moreover, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. government has pledged to help Taiwan defend itself against any Chinese attack, meaning U.S. forces could become involved should fighting erupt.

For the same reasons, Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) air force leaders were determined to acquire such a plane. After the 2000 Israeli fiasco, the PLA made it a matter of high pride to prove to the Americans they would not be denied AWACS, said Richard D. Fisher Jr., a U.S.-based specialist on the Chinese military.

At first, China turned to Russia, its traditional source of military equipment. The Beijing government concluded a deal to buy four Beriev A-50 Mainstay radar planes, which are roughly the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Air Forces E-3 Sentry AWACS. The purchase was believed to be the first phase of an agreement for up to eight of the Russian aircraft.

At the same time, however, Chinese scientists were at work on their own radar equipment. It is not known whether any of the Russian craft were ever delivered, which would have provided a look at the technology, or whether the technicians obtained help from Israeli or Russian counterparts. In any case, the Chinese AWACS that has begun test flights bears a strong resemblance to the A-50, which also uses the Il-76.

The AWACS could be operational within one or two years assuming the tests are successful, the specialists said. It was not known how many are planned for production, but Fisher noted eight would allow for a 24-hour patrol at both ends of the Taiwan Strait.

The Defense Ministry, which treats most military subjects as secret, did not reply to a request for information on the AWACS project.

Whatever the ultimate production schedule, AWACS development fits into a steady growth in the amount and sophistication of armaments on both sides of the strait, making a confrontation between China and Taiwan potentially one of the worlds most dangerous.

The leadership has steadily increased military budgets in recent years and sought to reform the manpower-heavy but technology-short PLA as swiftly as possible. According to U.S. and Taiwanese officials, the government has deployed nearly 600 short-range ballistic missiles in southern China aimed at targets in Taiwan. The number grows by about 75 a year, they say.

Taiwans president, Chen Shui-bian, who began a second four-year term in May, has insisted the 13,500-square mile territory is independent and should stay that way. Soon after taking office in May, his government decided on an $18.2 billion arms purchase from the United States, including 12 P-3C Orion submarine-hunting planes, eight diesel-electric submarines and six PAC-3 batteries equipped with more than 350 Patriot anti-missile missiles.

But the opposition Nationalist and People First parties, which have a majority in the legislature, declined this week to approve Chens budget for the purchase, arguing it was too expensive and in some ways inappropriate for Taiwans needs. The issue is unlikely to be resolved until after the next legislative elections, scheduled for Dec. 11.

In the meantime, both sides have continued individual purchases that notch up the technology level of their militaries by matching threat for threat.

中新社昨天報導，中國兵器裝備集團公司副總經理聶曉夫表示，西部地區是中國國防工業的重要基地，擁有一批實力雄厚的知名企業，形成各具特色的電子城、航天城以及飛機城。軍工經濟在西部地區比重很大，單就重慶來說，僅兵器裝備集團一家的民品產值就佔其GDP的五分之一強，軍工經濟與地方經濟已是「脣齒相依，骨肉相連」。

聶曉夫表示，「寓軍于民」將給中國西部經濟發展帶來新的歷史機遇；所帶來的科技創新、技術優勢，將成為拉動當地經濟快速成長的強大動力。

中國航空工業第二集團公司副總經理史堅忠認為，西部大開發為中國航空產品提供巨大的市場空間，飛機、直升機的廣泛使用又為西部地區基礎環境的改善和經濟發展提供有利支持。

(中央社台北十四日電)北京中新網今天引述報導，根據軍隊體制編制總體調整方案以及廣州軍區命令，中共海南軍區正式更名為海南省軍區。

報導引述海南日報指出，海南軍區已成立五十餘年，更名為海南省軍區，將更有利於海南省軍區部隊協調組織地方力量參與支持中國的國防建設，以及有利於協調駐島軍警部隊聯合履行防衛任務。

熟悉解放軍消息人士向中央社記者分析，海南軍區易名海南省軍區後，仍受廣州軍區管轄，但地位提升了，譬如司令員可以由少將級人士擔任。

（中央社記者張謙台北十六日電）即將出版的最新一期漢和防務評論透露，中國第二炮兵開始發展機動部署型DF31改良型洲際彈道導彈（ICBM）。

漢和評論今天預先向中央社提供的訊息指出，火車部署型DF31的研發工作已經完成，並且開始部署準備。為提高機動打擊能力、生存能力，DF31系列洲際彈道導彈已經發展出類似SS-24那樣的鐵路機動型，平時採用鐵路機動，戰時選擇若干個預定發射點，實施核打擊。

漢和評論表示，為了威懾美國，中國把研製洲際彈道導彈、戰略導彈核潛水艦當作最重要的戰備任務。

據稱，中國多次派遣相關人員訪問烏克蘭，向烏克蘭學習彈道導彈發射井的設計技術和SS－24火車運載型洲際彈道導彈的設計方式。

漢和評論引述烏克蘭國防部的消息指出，烏克蘭沒有幫助中國設計火車運載型洲際彈道導彈，但不排除國內專家以個人名義幫助外國發展洲際彈道導彈運載技術的可能性。但消息表示，這種幫助應該十分有限。

據報導，SS－24有「陸地潛水艦」之稱，每輛火車搭載三枚導彈，在鐵路線上機動行走。

美聯社今天依據美國的資訊自由法，取得勞里斯這項談話內容的副本。

勞里斯警告，若是台灣與中國爆發戰爭，最先陣亡的可能不是「勇敢的男女官兵」，中國最先攻擊目標可能是台灣高科技社會賴以運作的一切。

他在10月4日對美台商業協會表示：「中國正在積極研究各種選項，看如何能在島上製造混亂，以及破壞台灣重要的基礎設施，包括電信、公用事業、廣播媒體以及行動電話網、網際網路和電腦網路。」

這項會議是在亞利桑那州的斯科斯岱舉行，勞里斯在會中表示：「台灣可能遭到電子封鎖，與世界隔離，掀起驚濤駭浪，使美國無法與台灣聯絡，台灣也與世界斷了音訊。」

他說，這種策略可以稱為「點穴」攻擊，目的在「百針齊施」以「摧毀國家意志」。

勞里斯說，近來的一些事件暴露了台灣重大基礎設施和通訊系統的脆弱之處，而中國對這些弱點很清楚。

（中央社記者張謙台北十九日電）明天出版的漢和防務評論報導，在中國的要求壓力下，俄羅斯國防部決定出出售最新型的S300PMU2地對空導彈和新一批Su30MK殲擊轟炸機給中國。

報導表示，中方一直要求俄羅斯出售和轉移更為先進的海空軍裝備系統。

據分析，這次俄羅斯對中方要求作出讓步的主要動機，是考慮到中國和歐盟的關係在未來可能發生變化。漢和認為，中國對俄羅斯打的歐盟牌儘管目前未有重大進展，但已開始發揮作用。

評論預期，俄羅斯還會進一步放寬對中國武器出售的質量，但是在技術轉移生產方面，俄方依然會持非常慎重的態度。基於自身的長遠國家安全和對美國關係的需要，中國在獲得類似戰略轟炸機、核潛艦、航空母艦等戰略兵器領域上，今後仍將會遇到重大困難。

據分析，中國在未來二至四年內最希望獲得的俄式海空軍裝備以及技術包括為改良現役Su27SK戰鬥機所需要的最新型俄式航空設備和武器系統；新一批Su30MK3戰鬥機所需要的更新型雷達、發動機、武器系統；海軍KILO636使用的新一代武器技術也是中國希望獲得的。

報導分析，雖然俄國不斷提高對中國出口武器的質量，但是在技術轉移部分依然慎重。即使中國獲得俄方S300PMU2地對空導彈及新一批蘇三十MK戰鬥機，卻不太可能獲得戰略轟炸機、核潛艇、航空母艦等戰略軍備。

據報導，Su27改良型的組裝工作還是會以某種方式繼續下去，因為對生產線已經進行了將近十億美元的投資。此外，漢和評論負責人平可夫表示，瀋陽飛機公司目前最大的軍品生產任務就是Su27，停止生產意味著企業將會失去支柱產品。

中共前中央軍委副主席劉華清在最近出版的回憶錄中透露，當年港督彭定康推出政改方案時，中共前領導人鄧小平曾對香港問題發出「一點軟不得」的指示，中共解放軍當時也已經做好應付突發情況的準備，必要時將採取「一槌砸死」方式，解放軍非和平進駐香港。

劉華清在回憶錄中透露，中共解放軍在一九八九年制訂出大體計畫，九二年訂出方案，九三年開始訓練，九四至九六年組建訓練完畢，一九九七年進駐香港。

劉華清說，一九九二年十月中共十四大期間，針對彭定康推出政改方案，鄧小平強調「香港問題，就是一句話，一點軟不得。有關香港的情況，我都了解，就是想看一下方案。」

隨後，劉華清代表中共解放軍給鄧小平呈報「關於香港總督〈施政報告〉及我們擬採取對策的會議紀要」。鄧看過後很不滿意，說「軟了。態度可以斯文，但語言一定要明確。」又表示「我以前對（前英國首相）柴契爾夫人說過，如果談不成，我們就要考慮在另外的時間和另外的方式來解決問題。當然就不是和平過渡。有準備才能應付可能發生的情況。」

劉華清透露，中共軍委高層隨後達成共識，要加快和平進駐工作以及做好應付突發情況的準備。方案的制訂要考慮到各種複雜情況發生；要用殺雞用牛刀的辦法，不能拖拖延延；要一槌砸死；要搞出幾個方案，請鄧小平、江澤民批准，放在那裡，有備無患。

孫岩表示，如果歐盟解除對中國軍售禁令，將對促進中歐貿易有相當助益，尤其在歐盟國家與中國接觸日益頻繁之際，繼續維持對中國軍售禁令不符合歐盟國家利益。

JANES MISSILES AND ROCKETS
Issue: DECEMBER 01, 2004

China tests extended-range cruise missile
David C Isby

中國測試延長射程的巡弋飛彈

China may have conducted successful tests of a new long-range strategic cruise missile in September 2004, writes David C Isby. According to Hong Kong news reports, a test was witnessed by the vice-chairman of the Central Military Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, General Cao Gangchuan.

Designated the Hongnaio 2000 or Conghai-10, the new cruise missile is believed to be suitable for aircraft or submarine launch. It is understood to be a development of the Hongnaio III, which is thought to have entered limited service in 1998. A maximum range of 4,000 km has been claimed for the new missile - a significant improvement over the 3,000 km reported for the Hongnaio III.

JANES MISSILES AND ROCKETS
Issue: DECEMBER 01, 2004

Chinese missile threat to Taiwan increasing
中國提昇對台飛彈威脅

David C Isby
The size of Chinas growing theatre missile threat has become a political issue in Taiwan, writes David C Isby. Taiwans president, vice-president and defence minister have pointed out that there are 610 short- and medium-range missiles (largely M-9s and M-11s) targeting Taiwan and that the number could increase to 800 next year. Opposition political figures have claimed that this constituted a disclosure of military intelligence.

In addition, defence minister Lee Jye made reference to 200-odd cruise missiles with ranges of up to 1,600 km as constituting part of the missile threat. A Taiwanese legislator from the Democratic Progressive Party, Lee Wen-Chung, told the press after a briefing by the defence minister that 200 Hongniao-series land-attack cruise missiles with a circular error probable (CEP) of 10 m are expected to be completed within the next one to two years. He added that the current Chinese cruise missile strength included 90 Israeli-designed Harpy types and that the theatre ballistic missile threat was some 600 missiles and increasing by 50-75 per year.

JANES MISSILES AND ROCKETS
Issue: DECEMBER 01, 2004

Two FT-2000 variants planned
Robert Hewson
FT-2000 計劃有兩種衍生型
China is developing two variants of its FT-2000 long-range surface-to-air anti-radiation missile, writes Robert Hewson. When originally announced in 1998, the FT-2000 was marketed as a missile carried in tubular launcher/containers, and was thought to be a variant of Chinas planned HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system. More recent reports have described a missile designated FT-2000A and based on the airframe of the Hongqi-2 (HQ-2 = Red Flag-2) missile.

A leaflet released by the Second Academy of China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (COSIC) at the Air Show China in Zhuhai confirms that two versions are planned - a 12-60 km-range FT-2000A and a 20-120 km-range FT-2000B. Both carry a seeker that operates at 1-18 GHz and are intended for use against targets flying at altitudes of 12,000-70,000 ft.

The leaflet shows two missiles, both based on HQ-2 airframes, so it is possible that development efforts are being focused on the shorter-ranged FT-2000A variant based on the HQ-2. The longer-ranged FT-2000B is probably based on the HQ-9. Modelled on the US Patriot and Russian S300PMU1 weapon systems, the HQ-9 has yet to enter service.

According to COSIC, a deployed system would consist of a passive radar, 12 launchers each with one ready-to-fire missile and one set of support equipment. A diagram of the passive radar shows a single master receiving station plus three slave receiving stations. All four are based on wheeled vehicles and have a mast-mounted antenna.

JANES MISSILES AND ROCKETS
Issue: DECEMBER 01, 2004

China markets 150 km-range ballistic missile
Robert Hewson
中國銷售一百五十公里的彈道飛彈
China displayed a new 150 km-range tactical ballistic missile system at the Air Show China in Zhuhai and suggested that it could be used to attack cities, writes Robert Hewson. The B611 is being marketed by the Second Academy of China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation (COSIC) and was described as a member of the family of B6 missile[s].

Intended for battlefield fire-support missions, the B611 is armed with a 480 kg conventional blast fragmentation warhead and has a circular error probable (CEP) of no more than 150 m. Suggested targets included troop concentrations and encampments, parked aircraft, artillery sites and tactical missile sites. According to a publicity leaflet released at the show, it could also be used against cities to disturb the enemy in order to reduce the enemys combat capability.

The missile is carried by a (6x6) cross-country truck chassis similar to the Mercedes-Benz design that has been manufactured under licence by China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) to carry other artillery missiles such as the CPMIEC 302 mm WS-1B (four-round) artillery rocket system and the NORINCO 122 mm (40-round) Type 90/90A multiple-rocket system.

According to COSIC, a complete system would consist of a launch vehicle, a missile, a command and communication vehicle, and one set of support equipment. The system on display in the equipment hall incorporated two launcher/containers of rectangular cross-section. Photographs released at Zhuhai showed a single-round rail launcher, but this may have been a prototype or an alternative configuration. Firing preparation time is 25 minutes or less and missiles can be fired at up to 45º from the vehicle centreline. After firing, the launch vehicle can be on the move within five minutes.

The missile is boosted by a solid-propellant rocket motor and guided by a strapdown inertial guidance system. According to COSIC, the missile is guided over the full flight trajectory. Control is probably by moving cruciform tail fins; one photograph shows what may be red-coloured mechanical locks on the tail surfaces. These prevent the fins from moving while the missile is being transported and would be removed before firing.

Maximum range is 150 km and the minimum range is 80 km. There are plans for a 250 km-range variant. No information has been released on the size and weight of the B611 missile, but JMR estimates that it is about 6 m long and 0.5 m in diameter. This would imply a launch weight of around 1,500 kg. In size, weight, performance and general configuration, the B611 resembles the Alacran missile developed in the 1980s by Argentina.

According to COSIC, the missile is in production for the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). It faces strong competition from the 100 km-range CPMIEC A100 300 mm (10-round) multiple-rocket system, which has already been purchased and introduced into service.

Missiles shown in photos released at Zhuhai have serial numbers 200404 and 200412. If the first four digits are the year of manufacture, this would suggest that these rounds are prototypes or low-rate production examples. This is confirmed by the presence of white markings around the fuselage of both missiles. This type of marking is widely used on development rounds rather than production missiles. It allows engineers to measure the missiles post-launch roll when studying the film taken by range tracking cameras.

Janes Defence Weekly
November 17, 2004

China Aids Irans Tactical Missile Programme
中國協助伊朗飛彈計劃
By Robert Hewson, Editor, Janes Air-Launched Weapons, Zuhai, China

China is producing several families of tactical guided missiles, primarily for the anti-ship role, that appear to have been designed and developed for a single export customer - Iran.

At the China Air Show 2004, in Zhuhai during late October and early November, the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, exhibited three variants of two new missiles - the JJ/TL-6B, JJ/TL-10A and KJ/TL-10B.

These weapons are identical to Iranian missiles known as Nasr (TL-6) and Kosar (TL-10). Brochures produced by the Iran Aerospace Industries Organisation (IAIO) appear to carry photos of even the same models exhibited in China, labelled with Iranian programme names. It is now clear that two missile programmes revealed a few years ago by China National Aero Technology Import & Export Co (CATIC) - the FL-8 and FL-9 - were the TL-10 and TL-6, respectively, under yet another name.

A third weapon exhibited at Zhuhai and destined for Iran was a new variant of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (COSIC) C-701 anti-ship missile, the radar-guided C-701R. The C-701 has previously been presented by the IAIO in Iran, where it is claimed as a national programme

Of the newly unveiled missiles the smaller KJ/TL-10 series appears to have made the most progress. Development work began during the mid-1990s and Hongdu publicity material from Zhuhai shows a TL-10 being fired from an unidentified naval ship. A Hongdu spokesperson told JDW that deliveries of the TL-10A variant were already under way to a foreign customer. It was stressed that both the TL-6 and TL-10 programmes are for export and not for national use. The officials added that the radar-guided TL-10B and TL-6B missiles were still in development with perhaps another two years remaining until they were operational.

Conflicting accounts were given as to whether the missiles are, or will be, both air- and surface-launched. The Chinese abbreviation KJ indicates an air-to-ship missile (Kong Jian), while the JJ designator is for a surface-to-surface weapon (Jian Jian). The TL (Dragonfly) name identifies the missile family within Hongdu, a unit of China Aviation Industry Corporation II (AVIC II). JDW was told that the radar-guided TL-10B would be a helicopter-launched weapon, while an air-launched version of the TL-6 was also part of that missiles development plan. Helicopters were identified as the platform for an air-launched TL-6, but elsewhere at the show AVIC I displayed a model of the Shenyang F-8IIM carrying TL-6 missiles.

The latest C-701R missile from COSIC, the parent company of the better-known China Precision Machinery Import Export Co, CPMIEC, is fitted with a
radar seeker (believed to be a millimetre wave radar) replacing the earlier electro-optical seeker of the C-701T. Effective range now stands at 25
km. The C-701R has been redesigned with a longer missile body and the deletion
of the pop-out fin tips found on the C-701T.

Beijing Has E-blockade Strategy
北京「有電封鎖戰略」

Associated Press, Nov. 17, 2004

CHINA is developing the means to electronically blockade Taiwan with attacks to the islands vital utilities, the Internet and other communications networks, according to an US official.

Mr Richard Lawless, Deputy Undersecretary of Defence, issued the warning during a meeting with members of the US-Taiwan Business Council last month.

A copy of his speech was obtained by the Associated Press yesterday.

He cautioned that if a war broke out between China and Taiwan, China might first target things that keep Taiwans high-tech society running.

China is actively developing options to create chaos on the island, to compromise components of Taiwans critical infrastructure - telecommunications, utilities, broadcast media, cellular, Internet and computer networks, he said on Oct 4 to the US-Taiwan Business Council.

Such a strategy could be called an acupuncture attack aimed at the destruction of a national will with the insertion of a hundred needles, he said.

Taiwan must do more to safeguard telecommunications, fibre optics, energy supplies and major transportation arteries and should consider allowing private agencies to assist in national defence, he added.

Taiwan is one of the most technologically advanced societies in the world, but the expertise and wealth of experience that exist in the private sector remains largely untapped, he said.

Mr Lawless added that the Taiwanese legislature must approve a special budget to buy US weapons or risk sending a message that the islands partisan politics trumps more pressing issues like national defence.

Taiwanese lawmakers have decided to not yet vote on the NT$610 billion (S$31 billion) arms package. The issue could come up again when parliament reconvenes after Dec 11 legislative elections.

The arms deal has become a hot campaign topic with the opposition arguing that the weapons - including planes, submarines and anti-missile systems - are too expensive and will spark an arms race with China.

The ruling party said that the weapons are essential for fending off an attack by China, which has threatened to use force to unify the two sides that split amid civil war in 1949.

Mr Lawless said the weapons posed an important test for Taiwans young democracy.

Asian Wall Street Journal
November 17, 2004

Submarine Incident Highlights Military Buildup
理察．費雪﹕潛艇事件凸顯中國增加軍備
By Richard D. Fisher , Jr.

TOKYO -- Recent revelations that Japanese naval forces spotted and shadowed a Chinese nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters have drawn attention to Chinas maritime ambitions.

Last week was a disaster for Beijings much-praised diplomacy heralding its peaceful rise in Asia. On Nov. 9, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Tokyo of having a Cold War mentality, over a report outlining Beijings military threat that was recently submitted to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi by the Araki Commission. Yet within 24 hours, this protest was thrown back in Beijings face by Tokyos revelation of the discovery of a Chinese nuclear submarine in waters close to Japanese islands south of the Okinawa chain.

Senior Japanese government officials queried as this incident unfolded last week said the incident highlighted their growing concern with Chinas ongoing military, and especially naval buildup, and the threat it poses to Japanese economic-security interests. Most were concerned that the submarines proximity to the Senkaku islands, which are claimed by China as the Diayou group, was intended to ratchet up tensions over this long-disputed island group. They saw it as consistent with a recent pattern of increasingly frequent visits by Chinese survey ships to waters near Japanese areas of concern.

Some Japanese officials suggested the submarine incursion was an early indication of Beijings willingness to intensify efforts to extract oil from these disputed waters. Others saw it as a warning to Japan not to become enmeshed in Washingtons efforts to defend Taiwan, in the event China decided to use force to unify the island with the mainland.

Chinas rapid naval expansion is undeniable. It includes new nuclear and non-nuclear submarines, advanced air-defense ships, Russian and Chinese-built naval fighter-bombers, and an expansion of bases to support these forces. Most of this buildup is designed to support any military operation against Taiwan -- a prospect which is causing increasing
concern in Tokyo.

But there are also strategic implications reaching far beyond Taiwan. A new naval base on Hainan Island will shortly allow the North Sea Fleet and the South Sea Fleet of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to support nuclear-submarine operations. China will then have the ability to deploy new nuclear attack submarines in sea lanes as far away as the Persian Gulf, nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) capable of targeting the United States or India. By the end of this decade the PLAN could have 50-60 modern
or moderately-capable submarines in service. That probably exceeds the number of U.S. attack submarines available for global commitments, and is far in excess of Japans own fleet of 18 non-nuclear submarines.

Japanese officials noted that the submarine involved in last weeks incident belonged to the older generation of Chinese submarines. It was one of the five Type 091, or Han-class first generation nuclear attack submarines, that were conceived in the 1960s and ceased being built after 1990s. While the first is reportedly already being decommissioned, the last three remain operational and are understood to have been improved with Russian nuclear-engine technology, weapons, and French combat systems.

But China is also aggressive building more modern submarines. Officials in two Asian governments confirm the construction of a third Type 093 second generation nuclear-attack submarine, which benefits from more advanced Russian technology and is expected to carry new land-attack cruise missiles. A further three could be built by the end of the decade.

Even more non-nuclear submarines are being built. By 2007 the PLAN will have 12 Russian Kilo class conventional subs. Most will be armed with Club anti-ship missile, which have a range of 136 miles. Taiwanese sources also expect the PLAN to build 10 to 15 of its new Type 039A Song conventional sub, modeled on the French Agosta-class sub. In June, the PLAN started building a further class of submarine, dubbed the Yuan by the U.S. Navy.

There are indications that it may be more capable than the Song, and perhaps better than the Kilo, incorporating modern air-independent propulsion technology that increases how long it can stay submerged. In addition, China still has about 20 older Type 035 Ming class submarines, and may keep most of these in service for use in any blockade operations around Taiwan.

Beijings military buildup also continues in other areas. China recently launched the first of its second generation Type 094 SSBN. Armed with 16 new JL-2 nuclear-ballistic missiles that have a range of 5,000 miles, these SSBNs will form Chinas first reliable nuclear second strike capability.

There are also continuing indications that the PLAN retains its fervent ambition to build large conventional aircraft carriers, which could initially be armed with Russian-built Sukhoi fighter bombers.

Chinas military buildup, especially in the naval arena, has prompted some Japanese legislators to press the Ministry of Finance to increase defense spending. At the very least, it may prompt the ministry to rethink plans to cut back funding for the P-3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft that were at the center of last weeks submarine hunt.

But some Japanese legislators realize that a simple increase in defense spending will not defend Japan against a comprehensive Chinese military buildup. Tokyo will have to realize its interest in deterring Chinese aggression including having an active stake in protecting Taiwan against attack. They also believe that Japan will have to develop an offensive capability, including cruise missiles that can survive new sophisticated Chinese air defenses.

It took almost a week, including some undiplomatic rhetoric by Beijings ambassador to Tokyo, before China belatedly apologized to Japan for its submarine incursion yesterday. When will it dawn on Beijings foreign policy elite that by adopting such an attitude they are only promoting the Cold War mentality they profess to avoid?

大陸副外長武大偉周三駁斥外傳中共派遣萬名士兵進駐中朝邊境的說法，並稱北韓目前政治穩定，平壤政府正認真思考經濟改革問題。

武大偉二十四日在北京向外國記者介紹大陸總理溫家寶即將前往寮國出席東盟及中日韓三國領導人會議相關情況。被問到南韓媒體近日報導指中共在中朝邊境派遣萬名駐軍、以防範平壤政治形勢出現動亂一事時，武大偉表示，該報導完全沒有根據、也與事實不符。

武大偉今年九月陪同中共中央政治局常委李長春前往北韓訪問，他說，平壤的政局穩定、經濟情況也在發展中，「北韓領導人一直認真思考著經濟改革議題」。武大偉說，他在平壤看到了北韓的大改變，「朝鮮人民的生活顯著改善」，當地所見所聞讓他印象極為深刻。

大陸新聞中心／綜合報導 11/26 02:43

傳聞已久的共軍空中預警機，大陸媒體披露已經在沿海部署，並支援最近的一次海軍實彈演習。

上海的「國際展望」半月刊報導，大陸有「中華第一艦」之稱的深圳號驅逐艦，今年入秋之後，在南海參與實兵實彈演習，模擬深圳號進入一處高危險海域，和敵軍海空部隊遭遇。

演習過程中，空中預警機不時將戰場最新狀況，傳到深圳號戰控中心，艦載的直九型直升機也升空戒備。

艦長根據這些戰場數據，成功攔截敵軍發射飛彈，並發射飛彈、魚雷等，擊落敵機，擊沉敵方水面戰艦及潛艦。報導除傳達空中預警機參與演習訊息，似有意扭轉外界認為驅逐艦主力深圳號「對艦可以，反潛一般、防空失望」的評價。

據上海官方「國際展望」雜誌報導，準備在台海部署的中共預警機，最近已經在南海隨同有「中華第一艦」之稱的「深圳號」驅逐艦舉行了實兵實彈演習。

該刊最新一期題為「深圳號出擊」的文章描述「深圳號」驅逐艦演習時接敵戰況，其中透露預警機協同作戰內情。

香港中資「文匯報」昨天引用該文章說，解放軍的空中預警機近日參與在南海舉行的海軍實彈演習，並在台海附近部署。報導說，南海艦隊的「中華第一艦」深圳號驅逐艦今年入秋後在南海參與實兵實彈演習，模擬深圳號進入一處高危險海域，和敵軍海空部隊遭遇。演習過程中，空中預警機不時將戰場最新狀況傳到深圳號戰控中心，艦載的直九型直升機也升空戒備。

此前，美國「華盛頓郵報」說，中國綜合自己和外國的技術自製完成較新型的空中預警機，準備試飛，將在台海附近部署。據了解，在未完成新式預警機前，中共的預警機是以自製「運八」（運輸機）裝上電子技術，成為技術層次較低、戰管功能低下的「預警機」。

「國際展望」刊登的「深圳號出擊」提到預警機原文如下，「忽然間，我『深圳號』驅逐艦果敢突入這片高威脅海域，實施立體攻防。只見艦作戰指控中心內，資料鏈適時傳來我預警機提供的戰場態勢，艦長朱建達準確發出各種作戰指令。傾刻間，電子戰分隊壓制住『敵』電子干擾，雷達、聲納鎖定目標，實施搜潛與導彈中繼的艦載直升機呼嘯升空，反艦導彈、艦空導彈和反潛自導魚雷相繼發射、艦炮開火……戰果顯赫，『敵』艦沈入海底，『敵』機空中開花，『敵』潛艇葬身魚腹，『敵』來襲導彈全被擊落」。

「深圳艦」是目前中共公開亮相自行設計建造噸位最大、現代化程度最高的現役新型導彈驅逐艦。該艦全長一百五十三米，寬十六點五米，標準排水量五千噸，最大航速超過三十節，武器配備力求現代化。

關於大陸媒體指共軍自行研發的空中預警機已參與演訓並將部署台海，對此我空軍將領昨天認為，共軍擁有空中預警機後，空中戰場管制能力將向台海延伸，預料未來共軍戰機將更敢於在台海上空演訓，但目前共軍預警機的數量有限，加上明年初美國售台的兩架E-2T鷹眼2000型預警機將返台服役，相對來說我方的空中預警和戰場管制能力上暫時還能維持優勢。

另據指出，中共在台海部署空中預警機後，將能進一步掌握整個台灣本島上空的飛行目標，其中包括所有升空戰機、民航機，甚至總統行政專機動態，如果共軍預警機在東海巡弋，對美、日的空中動態也將產生威脅，這也是為何美國一再阻止以色列出售中共預警機的原因。

據了解，中共在未建立空中預警能量以前，只能由對岸所設置的十多套地面雷達顯示器進行戰機空中管制，許多低空區域一直難以有效掌握，過去共軍每套雷達僅能指揮兩批軍機，每批最多四架，整個指揮管制能量約二十四批，最多達九十六架次，而我方空軍強網系統的管制能量則約為共軍兩倍，共軍在缺乏預警和空中管制能力下，即使獲得的蘇愷戰機再先進，都難以進行大規模的戰術行動。

軍方官員說，共軍在獲得空中預警機後，除了能有效掌握防空死角外，在空中管制能力上將大幅提升，以一般空中預警機具備三十至四十架戰機管制能力來說，共軍只要在台海部署超過兩架預警機，在空中戰場管理能力上就得以打破兩岸平衡，整個空中行動也勢必變個更加靈活，對我方確實產生不小壓力。

同時，據大陸媒體報導，共軍這型空中預警機已具備與海上船艦進行資訊傳達的能力，這項訊息意味共軍已完成部分三軍資訊鏈路系統的整合，向三軍聯合作戰邁進，國軍在這方面腳步必須加快。

（中央社記者任中弘澳門二十九日電）中國解放軍駐澳門部隊，昨天完成駐澳門以來第五次輪換。這次輪換與過去四次輪換的人數、裝備基本相同，未有變更。

駐澳門部隊司令員劉聯華、政委楊忠民和副司令員黃文科等率領官兵在澳門軍營外歡迎新進澳門的官兵。兩支新駐澳門部隊分別到澳門新口岸軍營和離島（乙＋水）仔軍營，列隊進入營房。

中共潛艦入侵日本領海，只是其擴展潛艦數量、火力與活動範圍，並逐步將軍事力量擴展至全亞洲的一個新訊號，特別是台灣的周邊海域，未來發生類似事件的頻率將只會更多。

據「亞洲華爾街日報」報導，相較於其他軍事裝備，中共發展潛艦武力不啻為一項「便宜又大碗」的軍備擴張方式。儘管在質量上仍不如美國，但估計未來十年內，中共將有超過二十艘配備先進武器的傳統動力與核子動力潛艦陸續服役，數量遠比美國預計新建的潛艦要高出許多。

中共加強發展潛艦實力，除可用於對付台灣外，亦能強化其封鎖日韓兩國能源進口與產品輸出主要航道的能力，進而增加北京對日韓的政治影響力。此外，潛艦也大幅提高美國海軍在西太平洋所可能遭遇到的危險。

據了解，中共潛艦即將配備的俄羅斯製反艦巡弋飛彈與具有主動追蹤能力的魚雷，將對美國的水面船艦及航空母艦造成極大威脅。倘若美國真想介入台海衝突，勢必要花費更多精力才能反制中共潛艦以確保戰鬥群的安全，而這也是美國積極要求台灣購買包括潛艦與反潛機的主因。

報導還說，除便宜外，海域環境適合傳統動力潛艦活動亦是主因。黃海、東海與南海的海域深度都不深，再加上海底的背景噪音量多且複雜，甚至連先進主動聲納的效率都大為降低，十分適合傳統動力潛艦活動，也讓反潛作戰變得困難。

美國退休潛艦官員莫瑞（William Murray）即指出，相較於其他昂貴的軍備投資，中共瞭解投資潛艦便宜，卻能帶給美日及台灣更大的軍事困擾。

軍事專家評估，未來幾年內中共將建立起一支擁有八艘俄羅斯製的基洛級（Kilo）潛艦艦隊，其中四艘還是該級潛艦的最新型，並將配備先進的潛射反艦飛彈與主動歸向魚雷。而至二○一○年前，現役的宋級傳統動力潛艦數量將再增加至九艘，研發中的核子動力戰略導彈潛艦○九四型也將服役。

北京現正加緊研發下一世代的新型核子動力潛艦，以取代服役多年的五艘漢級核子攻擊潛艦與夏級核子動力戰略導彈潛艦。據美國五角大廈的最新評估，中共首艘新型核子攻擊潛艦將於明年正式服役，而西方軍事專家也認為，第二艘同型潛艦與新型核子動力戰略導彈潛艦應已下水，只是尚未正式服役。

十一月初，中共軍方在深圳舉辦第六屆孫子兵法國際研討會。這次會議經總參謀部批准，由軍事科學院的外圍機構孫子兵法研究會主辦，與會的二百多位學者專家來自美、俄、歐洲、印度、東南亞以及兩岸三地等十多個國家和地區，堪稱是中共軍方對外交流的主要平台之一。在目前美、中、台三方關係起伏不定而又趨嚴峻之際，此次會議的召開別具現實意義。

回想四年前，本報記者應邀參加在蘇州舉辦的第五屆孫子兵法研討會。當時科索沃戰爭結束不久，美國以「人權」之名介入這場戰爭，對高舉「主權」的中共來說既是啟示也是威脅，因此當時會議的熱點圍繞「人權和主權」，何者作為國際法基本原則之辯而展開。如今歷史重演，去年美伊戰爭又成本屆會議中方與會代表挑戰美方的現成素材。

不過，中方這次批判火力減緩許多，而把重點放在「孫子兵法與戰略文化」的主題上，藉此弘揚孫子所主張的「不戰、慎戰與全勝」的戰爭觀，並強調伐交伐謀而慎用戰爭暴力，這些聽在台灣和美方代表的耳中是別有體會，並想從中了解，孫子的戰爭觀究竟多少實化於中共軍隊之中，成為軍事戰略文化不可分割的主要部份，並在多大程度上反應在對台關係上。與會的美方代表私下表示，他們還參不透中共軍方的真實意圖，但在本屆會議上他們感受到一股特意散發出的和平氣氛。

參加本屆孫子兵法研討會的外國專家群中，以美國代表居多，主要來自美國海軍分析中心，美國駐北京海軍武官是唯一的官方代表。陣容最大的是軍事科學院的人馬，中央軍委還特批軍科院包專機南下。從院長鄭申俠上將（空軍）、政委溫宗仁上將、副院長葛東升中將到院內各部首長，加上廣州軍區副司令員丁壽岳中將和第四十二集團軍軍長劉粵軍等，包括現役和少數退役的將領達二十餘人，在會場中星光閃閃，成了與會人士爭相合照的對象。

中共中央前軍委副主席張萬年是本次會議的名譽主席，他本人沒有赴會，但指派一名少將宣讀他的書面發言。張的發言不到二頁，卻精要指出孫子兵法的「慎戰」觀；溫宗仁在發言中反覆強調孫子的「非危不戰」，以最低代價達成「全勝」目標，並綜合運用政治、外交、軍事等手段造成有利於己的戰略態勢；軍科院戰略研究部部長姚有志少將以「孫子兵法與當代中國的主流戰爭理論」為題，闡述孫子所提倡的以謀制勝，力爭不戰而勝或小戰大勝，避免與敵力拼。這些看法在很大程度上體現中共軍方對戰爭和使用武力的總體思路，歷屆孫子兵法研討會也都談及，但今年尤為強烈，可能和當前的形勢有關。

面對濃郁的和平氣氛，美國前國防部副部長幫辦白邦瑞（M.Pillsbury）亦有所感。會期中的某日晚間，中方高層領導邀約出席會議的外國學者專家私下會談，中方沒有人提阿扁修憲攻台的問題，語氣平和而低調，和四年前的蘇州會議大不相同。白邦瑞還發現，中共軍方高層已經不提「和平崛起」而改稱「和平發展」，似有降低「崛起」隱含超越他國為國際間帶來的「威脅」印象。

交談中，白邦瑞覺得中方非常在意台、美六千多億的特別軍購案，並不斷灌輸美國沒有必要對台軍售，因為中國向來強調「以和為貴」的和平理念，且孫子的「不戰和慎戰」深深影響中國軍隊。講得一口流利漢語的白邦瑞則回應，孫子也說過「兵者，詭道也」、「兵以詐立」、強調「奇勝」，虛虛實實，讓人難以捉摸何者為是。由此看出，不同文化背景對同一學說的理解和側重常有差異，甚至南轅北轍。

即將出版「中國古代戰略的復興」一書的白邦瑞，高度讚揚孫子的「廟算」（周密籌畫）之說，並藉此「提醒」對方不要錯估形勢而貿然對台動武，因為這不符合孫子的慎戰教誨。雙方你來我往，都借孫子的話表達各自的立場。白邦瑞說，孫子可能沒想到二千五百年後的今天，他的學說竟在中、美的戰略學界間迸出火花。

（中央社台北三十日電）共軍總後勤部軍事交通運輸部指出，自十二月一日起統一更換軍車號牌。軍車號牌的核發許可權，集中到總參謀部、總政治部、總後勤部、總裝備部四個總部和各大單位。

新華網引述總後運輸部負責人說，隨著市場經濟發展和軍隊體制編制調整，軍車號牌管理也需相應調整。為了更嚴格限制軍車號牌的使用，號牌從原先規定的七項範圍減為五項。

未來軍車號排只包括列入武器裝備實力、列入後勤裝備實力、軍隊事業單位車輛編制數內用於生活勤務保障的車輛，經各總部和大單位批准配發的專業用車及自購頂入編制使用的車輛，軍隊保留保障性企業和擔負軍事保障任務的軍地聯合辦事機構限額使用的車輛。

至於私人車輛和來源手續不全的車輛，軍委、總部規定不准使用的超標準高檔豪華小轎車，都被剔除在軍車號牌之外。

據報導，共軍新軍車號牌增強了防偽、保密及資訊管理功能，號牌字頭使用大單位名稱的第一個漢字，可以直接區分隸屬單位，有利識別監督；號牌內嵌入非接觸式防偽及資訊射頻卡，輸入車輛基本參數資訊，可用手持識別器鑒別真偽。