China ordered $US3.6 billion ($A5.3 billion) worth of conventional arms last year, cementing its position as the developing worlds No.1 weapons importer.

South Korea ranked second with $US1.9 billion in orders, followed by India with $1.4 billion and Oman with $1.3 billion, said the authoritative annual US Congressional Research Service report on arms transfers.

The United States once again grabbed the lions share of deals with developing countries last year, with nearly $US8.6 billion, or 48.6 per cent, followed by Russia, with $US5 billion, or 28.3 per cent. France ranked third with $US1 billion or 5.3 per cent.

From 1995 to 2002, the total value of Beijings arms orders was $US17.8 billion.

The United Arab Emirates was second during the same period with $US16.3 billion in orders, including a $US6.4 billion deal with the US in 2000 for 80 Lockheed Martin Corporation built F-16 fighter jets. India was third overall with $US14.1 billion.

This increase reflects the military modernisation effort by China in the 1990s, based primarily on major arms agreements with Russia, wrote Richard Grimmett, the reports author. China has become the centrepiece of Russias arms exports, buying at least 72 Su-27 fighters since 1996 along with two Sovremenny-class destroyers, associated missiles and four Kilo-class attack submarines.

Mr Grimmett said Beijing, using its market leverage, had prodded Moscow to let it produce weapons under licence in recent years in a development that ultimately would curb Chinas reliance on Russian imports.

At some point the Chinese are going to have acquired sufficient capability on their own to build these things without the Russians assistance, he said.

Last year, Russia agreed to supply China eight Kilo-class project 636 submarines for $US1.6 billion, its most advanced diesel submarine, the report said. China also exer-cised options for two more Sovremenny-class destroyers and additional S300 PMU-2 surface-to-air missile systems.

In an annual report to Congress on Chinas military, the US Defence Department said on July 30 that the chief driver behind Chinas military modernisation was a perceived need to prepare credible military options to complicate US intervention in any conflict over the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China deems a wayward province.

As a group, the four major west European suppliers - France, Britain, Germany and Italy - more than doubled the value of their arms supply deals with developing nations to 11.9 per cent of the total, or $US2.1 billion, up from 5.1 per cent in 2001, or $US832million.

France led this group with its $US1 billion in 2002 deals, nearly double the $US520 million marked up the year before, much of it pegged to a deal with India for six Scorpene-class subs.

Developing countries remained the primary focus of foreign arms sales. From 1995 to 2002, the value of arms transfer agreements with developing nations made up 66.2 per cent of all such deals worldwide.

　　（中央社台北三日電）香港太陽報報導，中國大陸北方工業公司製成威力強大的紅箭七三C型反坦克導彈，正向伊朗、科威特及阿拉伯聯合大公國等推銷。

　　「中東新聞線」網站引述國防工業人士指出，北方工業公司將改良自俄羅斯AT3型反坦克飛彈的紅箭七三C型導彈，變換成不同類型代號，例如HJ73A及HJ73B等，分別向伊朗、科威特等中東國家推銷。其中，阿拉伯聯合大公國與伊朗近年來因地域問題紛爭不斷，導致兩國對先進武器的需求日增。

　　北方工業公司九十年代所製的導彈目錄顯示，紅箭七三C型導彈是由光纖及紅外線追蹤導引的半自動武器，連同指揮箱、測距儀、發射架及一枚飛彈，總重量五十二公斤，射程四百至三千公尺，最高命中率達百分之九十。

詹氏防衛周刊平可夫報道：中國和巴基斯坦慶祝JF-17戰机首飛成功
2003-09-14 10:35:19 中國航空信息网 　　

据英國《簡氏防務周刊》亞洲特派員平可夫2003年9月10日期刊報道，中國和巴基斯坦對它們合作的JF-17雷鳴(前稱為FC1/超7)輕型戰斗机已于8月25日進行了原型机首飛。正式飛行試驗于9月2日在中國成都貽d始，巴基斯坦空軍參謀長參加了典禮儀式。 　

在此期間，俄羅斯Phazotron雷達設計局加強了向FC1 推銷Kopyo-F相控陣雷達的工作。這是因為該設計局推測中國空軍可能准備訂購該飛机裝備空軍。為了進行研究，中國已經獲得了兩套原型　Kopyo系統。 　
　 　　
据俄羅斯制造商稱，Kopyo-F相控陣雷達系統前半球的探測距离為75千米(Kopyo為57千米)，而后半球探測距离為30千米(Kopyo為35千米)。Kopyo-F能探測到200千米處的驅逐艦大小的目標；100千米處的導彈艇；80千米處的鐵路橋梁以及20千米處的活動戰斗坦克群。該系統平均故障間隔時間為200小時。 　　
　　
JF-17的第一架原型机還裝備了俄羅斯提供的克里莫夫(Klimov)　RD-93(RD-33)渦扇發動机。中國進口了5台該發動机支持試驗工作。(洪山)　

http://www.kanwa.com/free/2003/09/c0919a.htm
FBC1 改 良 型 的 市 場 推 測

漢 和 情 報 評 論 6 月 18 日 巴 黎 專 電 ： 中 航 第 一 集 團 在 巴 黎 航 空 展 上 推 出 了 FBC1M 改 良 型 殲 擊 轟 炸 机 。 漢 和 情 報 評 論 認 為 FBC1M 推 向 國 際 市 場 的 時 間 為 時 已 晚 。 不 太 容 易 尋 找 用 戶 。 原 因 如 下 。 首 先 FBC1 使 用 更 多 的 俄 式 精 确 制 導 炸 彈 ， 對 外 依 賴 性 強 。 同 時 ， 俄 改 良 之 后 的 SU24MK 和 SU24M2 在 質
量 、 价 格 方 面 形 成 了 相 對 优 勢 。 SU24MK 几 乎 可 以 使 用 全 部 俄 式 空 對 地 精 确 制 導 武 器。 最 新 改 良 的 SU24M2 換 裝 了 新 型 SVP-24 武 器 控 制 系 統 (Weapon management system)、 MIL-STD-1553B 數 据 庫 和 SV 24 任 務 電 腦 。 新 一 代 的 Obzor-RVB-T 雷 達 信 號 處 理 系 統 。 座 艙 也 加 裝 了 新 一 代 的 OR4-TM CRT， 可 以 顯 示 SAR 圖 象
和 新 型 KAI-24 HUD。 在 最 大 載 彈 量 方 面 ， SU24M2 達 到 8 吨 (FBC1M 6.5 吨 )，在 加 挂 油 箱 (external tanks) 的 情 況 下 ， 航 程 達 到 2775 公 里 (FBC1 据 稱 擁 有 3000 公 里 航 程 ， 條 件 不 祥 )。 SU24MK 和 M2 可 以 挂 載 俄 新 一 代 的 Kh31A 反 艦 導 彈 、 Kh59 電 視 制 導 導 彈 和 KAB1500L LGB。

目 前 推 出 的 FBC1 改 良 型 在 武 器 配 置 方 面 依 然 沒 有 配套 成 龍 。 FBC1 甚 至 在 非 洲 也 不 太 具 備 競 爭 力 。 安 哥 拉 空 軍 從 1999 年 開 始 接 收 了 大 約 20 架 SU24MK。單 价 甚 至 不 超 過 540 万 美 元， 顯 然 屬 于 政 策 性 傾 銷 。

KANWA 同 時 認 為 在 机 載 相 控 陣 雷 達 高 度 發 達 、 大 推 力 渦 輪 風 扇 發 動 机 技 術 日 新 月 异 的 前 提 之 下 ， 世 界 空 軍 市 場 正 在 朝 “ 少 机 、 高 質 量 、 多 功 能 ”方 向 發 展 。 FBC1、 SU24 等 專 用 對 地 中 型 攻 擊 机 不 是 未 來 的 潮 流 。 除 非 發 展 全 隱 形 高 性 能 攻 擊 机 滿 足 大 國 空 軍 需 求 。 (漢 和 情 報 評 論 巴 黎 專 電)

http://military.china.com/zh_cn/news/568/20030929/11548086.html
航天集團重點型號發動机靶場飛行實驗獲得成功
2003-09-29 08:41:19
　　据中國航天報報道，近日，科工六院研制的某重點型號發動机在靶場飛行實驗中，取得圓滿成功。
　　
　　報道稱，試飛完成后，該院認真查找質量問題，從管理、設計、質量、技術等四方面，硬是“摳”出了28個問題。28個問題經過分解，落實了責任單位，确定了完成節點。通過質量歸零、專題研討、專家攻關、外協合作，在較短的時間內，一些問題已經得到解決。

　　据稱，此導彈的導引頭是与俄羅斯聯合設計的。R77采用的是J波段的導引頭。
SD10和R77的整體設計有重大差別。在气動外形上來說，SD10更接近AIM120A，這使
人猜測它應該是80年代末期的產物。在那以后，中國和俄羅斯在制導技術的研究上
開始合作。SD10使用雷達指令制導+捷聯式慣導+主動雷達制導。
　　
　　中國航空技術進出口總公司稱，SD10系統可以同時攻擊4個目標，而R77只能攻
擊兩個。從SD10的直徑來看，其采用的雷達很可能要比R77上的大。

　　中國航空技術進出口總公司的專家對漢和透露他們仍然在對SD10進行改進，SD10的
2/4聯裝地對空改型業已開發完成，相關的實驗也已進行完畢。

http://www.kanwa.com/free/2003/09/e0925a.htm
CHINA RELEASED THE DETAILS OF DOMISTIC ACTIVE RADAR GUIDED AAM
China put on display the full-size SD10 AMRAAM
model and disclosed more details about this weapon system. SD10 AMRAAM has
a length of 3850mm, diameter 203mm, wing span 674mm weight 180kg, whiles
for R77, these measurements are 3600mm, 200mm and 175kg respectively. Its
operation altitude is 0-25km (0.02-30km for R77), maximum launching range
70km (50km for R77, some other documents say it is 70km), maximum speed
M4 (M3 for R77) maneuverability 38g.
A source claims the design of the seeker was completed in cooperation with
Russia. R77 adopts J band seeker. The overall designs of R77 and SD10 are
significantly different. As far as the pneumatic shape of the missiles is
concerned, SD10 is closer to AIM120A, suggesting that the production of
SD10 started in later years of 1980s. It was after that that Russia and
China started to cooperate in the areas of seeker technologies. SD10 uses
radio command guidance plus strap-down inertial and active radar guidance.
CATIC says SD10 is capable of attacking 4 targets simultaneously, while
R77 can attack two air targets simultaneously. With reference to the diameter
of SD10 AAM, its radar diameter is very likely larger than that of R77.

JDW
10/01/03
China promotes improved FBC-1M fighter
YIHONG CHANG JDW Correspondent
Toronto

Chinas AVIC I organisation has received authorisation to promote an upgraded version of the FBC-1 attack fighter to potential export customers, according to company officials. A model of the improved FBC-1M was displayed for the first time during the Aviation Expo/China 2003 show in Beijing late last month.

The FBC-1 is the export version of the JH-7A fighter planned for deployment with the Chinese air force.

The enhanced FBC-1M features improved cockpit equipment, including multi-function displays, and provides for the integration of extra weapon systems through the addition of two external stores pylons. These take to nine the number of points available, although this capability could be further increased to total 11 pylons in a move linked to increasing the aircrafts maximum stores load from around 6,000kg to 9,000kg.

The improved aircraft can also carry new weapon types, including YJ-series anti-ship missiles, a laser-guided version of the Russian-designed KAB-500 bomb and the Kh-31P anti-radiation missile. Chinese sources indicate that all three weapon types are already being independently produced in China.

China has also upgraded the FBC-1Ms fire-control system, mission computer and radar antenna, which has been enlarged for improved detection capabilities.

Further enhancements to the aircraft could see its current triplex fly-by-wire control system replaced with a quadruplex system such as that used by Chinas developmental J-10A fighter. The technologies are already there, and there are several other choices, according to programme sources.

AVIC I sources have also confirmed that it plans to equip both the FBC-1M and JH-7 with the domestically produced WS-9 turbofan engine, which has already entered limited production.

In a related development, the Military Commission of the Central Committee recently held a meeting on the topic of Reinforcing Navy Aviation Forces Construction. During the meeting, a decision was made to strengthen Chinas naval aviation forces to narrow the gap between the service and the US and Japanese navies and to build its deterrence strength. Initiatives include upgrading the services existing JH-7s, accelerating production of the type and increasing the number of Su-30MKK-series fighters available to the service (Janes Defence Weekly 10 September).

The navy also intends to replace the Rolls-Royce Spey Mk 202 turbofan engines, which power its second batch of JH-7 Mk 2 fighters, with the indigenous WS-9 power plant after this design has entered series production.

補充一下
YIHONG CHANG就是平可夫﹐看來這是從漢和來的

>>(Source: Y Chang)

無網址僅供參考

JDW
10/01/03
China still short on flying hours
Robert Sae-Liu JDW Correspondent
Beijing
Chinese Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) pilots are still receiving significantly less flight training than their Western counterparts, despite the introduction of advanced fighter aircraft, according to Beijing-based sources.

Analysts say the PLAAF flight-training programme has grown more realistic in recent years. Together with the deployment of new aircraft, this has been spurred by an upgrade of the Gobi Desert training centre, establishment of the Cangxian Flight Test and Training Centre and supplementary use of simulators.

Aggressor units have also been formed and there has been a new emphasis on over-water training, analyst Kenneth Allen noted in a paper presented three years ago. Allen further highlighted the establishment of airborne and fighter rapid-reaction forces, more joint service training and increased mobility deployments.

However, sources told Janes Defence Weekly that the PLAAF claims that its pilots annually get about 100 hours of flight time, with 20 of these hours spent during night conditions. This may be an overstatement, some of the sources contend.

　 立 法 院 第 五 屆 第 四 會 期 國 防 委 員 會 今 （ 八 ） 日 召 開 首 次 會 議 ， 將 邀 請 國 防 部 長 湯 曜 明 到 會 進 行 國 防 業 務 報 告 。 湯 曜 明 在 報 告 中 指 出 ， 共 軍 戰 略 思 想 將 由 「 嚇 阻 」 逐 漸 走 向 「 先 制 」 。 國 防 部 官 員 解 讀 ， 這 代 表 共 軍 加 強 對 臺 威 脅 ， 考 慮 捨 棄 過 去 以 談 判 方 式 處 理 兩 岸 問 題 ， 必 要 時 不 惜 動 武 ， 甚 至 可 能 將 攻 擊 目 標 侷 限 在 少 數 特 定 人 士 。

　 湯 曜 明 報 告 書 面 資 料 昨 日 送 抵 立 法 院 ， 報 告 指 出 ， 研 判 共 軍 戰 略 思 想 將 由 「 嚇 阻 」 逐 漸 走 向 「 先 制 」 ， 作 戰 手 段 則 由 「 殲 滅 戰 」 、 「 消 耗 戰 」 轉 向 「 癱 瘓 戰 」 ， 強 調 震 撼 、 威 懾 與 速 決 ， 並 朝 科 技 化 作 戰 模 式 發 展 ， 具 有 短 時 間 、 節 奏 快 、 兵 力 小 、 戰 損 低 之 特 性 。

　 報 告 中 並 指 出 ， 共 軍 將 在 二 ○ ○ 五 年 分 階 段 裁 撤 軍 、 兵 種 、 軍 級 司 令 部 與 減 併 機 關 、 學 校 、 後 勤 冗 員 約 五 十 萬 人 。 近 期 正 進 行 海 軍 基 地 、 空 軍 軍 級 司 令 部 及 院 校 與 後 勤 單 位 ， 裁 併 官 、 士 、 兵 約 二 十 萬 人 及 將 官 二 百 餘 人 ； 值 得 注 意 的 是 ， 共 軍 在 大 幅 裁 軍 的 同 時 卻 增 編 一 個 「 空 降 軍 」 ， 預 判 未 來 將 以 「 遠 戰 速 勝 、 首 戰 決 勝 」 的 戰 略 指 導 ， 加 強 聯 合 作 戰 與 軍 力 遠 距 投 射 演 練 ， 以 具 備 「 快 速 反 應 與 應 付 小 規 模 高 強 度 戰 爭 能 力 」 。

　 對 於 湯 曜 明 報 告 中 釋 出 的 訊 息 ， 國 防 部 官 員 解 讀 ， 這 是 提 供 一 項 「 警 訊 」 ， 暗 示 「 臺 獨 」 力 量 如 果 持 續 在 臺 灣 擴 張 ， 中 共 將 不 惜 對 臺 發 動 攻 擊 ， 以 武 力 解 決 兩 岸 問 題 。

　 官 員 表 示 ， 共 軍 一 直 具 備 「 先 制 」 能 力 ， 過 去 對 臺 採 「 嚇 阻 」 方 式 建 軍 ， 是 因 兩 岸 問 題 可 望 在 談 判 桌 上 解 決 ， 無 須 動 用 武 力 製 造 衝 突 ， 但 臺 灣 近 年 來 臺 獨 勢 力 的 擴 張 ， 已 使 共 軍 改 變 初 衷 。

「華盛頓時報」13日報導，美國官員證實人民解放軍將於本月在福建舉行集結10萬大軍的大規模軍事演習，以加強對台灣政府的壓力。

珚華盛頓時報珗引述美國資深官員說，人民解放軍幾乎每年都做這樣的演習，中共試圖讓今年演習更開放，能見度更高，可能是為了回應陳水扁總統及其最近傾向獨立的言論。

官員說，中共年度軍事演習一向大規模。這次演習看來是以台海軍事衝突為假想。「華盛頓時報」指出，人民解放軍上次在台附近演習是去年5月舉行。

五角大廈發言人普萊西可，3日在答覆關於中共軍事演習的問題時，曾經表示美國正密切觀察注意中。

(中央社記者韓乃國倫敦十五日專電)倫敦的國際戰略研究所今天發佈二○○三至二○○四年全球軍事平衡報告，其中指出，中國今年的正式國防預算比去年成長了百分之十一點五，金額從一千六百六十二億元人民幣增加至一千八百五十三億元。

這家知名的英國智庫在報告中說，過去一年內中國最大宗的軍事採購案是以十億美元向俄羅斯增購二十四架蘇愷30MKK 戰機，這是中國於一九九九年以及二○○一年購買三十八架此型戰機之後的後續訂單。

報告又說，雖然中國近年來為了達成軍事現代化的目標而向俄國採購許多軍備，但是每一採購項目都有中國自己相同的系統正在研發生產中。例如，中國在購買兩艘俄國製的Sovremenny驅逐艦後，目前自己正在建造一艘六千噸的052B驅逐艦以及一艘新的彈道飛彈核子動力潛艦。

另外，中國近年來一方面向俄國購買一百架蘇愷30MKK 戰機以及二十八架蘇愷27戰機，另一方面在國內由它的航空工業公司同時進行三項航太工程計畫，更新或研發三個機種：JH-7A、與美國F-16戰機相當的FC-1Super 7、以及新的J10；一旦這三項研發計畫完成，中國每年將可生產三十至五十架各型飛機。

去年十一月，中國將中央軍委會改組後，繼續軍事改革。今年六月，中國決定將解放軍人數裁減百分之二十，大約為五十萬人，以加速軍隊現代化，預計至二○○八年，中國的軍隊人數會減至一百八十五萬人。

國際戰略研究所的報告指出，中國最近數月的軍事演習都是以海陸兩棲聯合作戰為主，對於在科技上占優勢的對手，中國軍方則採取特別設計的「三攻、三守」策略。

在對外軍事關係方面，中國在過去一年恢復了和美國的軍方交流，並和中亞與亞太地區國家舉行聯合軍事演習，或討論組成區域共同防禦的可行性。

2003.10.22 中國時報
中國與巴基斯坦舉行海軍聯合演習
中央社

　香港文匯報報導，據巴基斯坦聯合新聞社從北京國防管道獲得的消息，巴基斯坦與中國海軍於十月二十一日起舉行聯合軍事演習。這項演習目的在進一步促進兩國在防務方面的雙邊合作。這次演習也是中共海軍有史以來首次與外國海軍舉行聯合軍演。

　據透露，演習將在上海海岸附近的水域舉行，雙方的前線戰艦、水上飛機和直升機將參演。巴基斯坦的兩艘載有七百名官兵的戰艦已於十月十八日抵達上海。

　報導表示，此次演習將有助於雙方進一步加強保衛海上邊防線和確保海上利益的能力，同時也為雙方分享海上經驗，處理海事事宜，相互享受對方的防衛能力提供了良機。

　此次演習是在印度和美國海軍本月初舉行有史以來最大規模海軍演習之後，其中意義耐人尋味。印度傳媒報導指出，自從印度和美國建立起更加密切的軍事關係，並從以色列和俄羅斯購買大量先進的武器之後，巴基斯坦對中國大陸的依賴性就進一步增強了。

Reuters, Oct. 25, 2003

Chinas defense minister will meet U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld next week in the first top-level Chinese military visit to Washington since the collision of a U.S. reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter jet two years ago, defense officials said on Friday.

Rumsfeld told The Washington Times in an interview published on Friday that the meeting with Chinas Cao Gangchuan was part of U.S. engagement with the Asian power. Ties between the two countries have thawed significantly since the 2001 collision over the South China Sea.

Vietnamese Defense Minister Pham Van Tra also announced this week he would make a historic visit to Washington in early November to meet Rumsfeld and that the U.S. Navy could make a port call in Vietnam before the end of the year.

The first American trip by a Hanoi defense minister since the Vietnam War ended in 1975 will come at Rumsfelds invitation and reciprocates one paid by then U.S.-Defense Secretary William Cohen to Hanoi in March 2000.

Vietnam and the United States are cooperating closely in the search for the remains of U.S. servicemen still missing from the war. The countries restored diplomatic ties in 1995 and signed a bilateral trade pact that took effect in December 2001.

MILITARY EXCHANGES LOGICAL - RUMSFELD

Caos visit will come two years after China imprisoned 23 U.S. service members who made an emergency landing on Chinas Hainan Island aboard a Navy EP-3 surveillance plane damaged by a collision with a Chinese fighter jet.

Military exchanges with China are appropriate, and logical and beneficial, from our standpoint, Rumsfeld told The Washington Times.

China is emerging into the world, and the hope is that that emerging into the world will happen in a way that is smooth, and not bumpy, he said.

Washington charged the Chinese fighter veered into the EP-3 in international airspace -- resulting in the death of the Chinese pilot and the emergency landing by the American plane.

The Bush administration was angered by Chinas refusal to turn over the American crew for 11 days. Rumsfeld at the time cut off virtually all military-to-military ties between Beijing and Washington.

Tra, in his first public comments on the Vietnam visit, said in Hanoi this week it would enhance the understanding between the armies of the two countries and increase cooperation in Missing in Action (MIA) cases.

原文附圖
http://www.uscc.gov/mair1.htm

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN RUSSIA-CHINA MILITARY RELATIONS:

A REPORT ON THE AUGUST 19-23 2003 MOSCOW AEROSPACE SALON (MAKS)

This report is submitted to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission to offer information and perspective on developments in Russia-China security relations by conducting interviews at the bi-annual Moscow Aerospace Salon (MAKS). It has been this analyst’s experience on two previous visits to MAKS (1997 and 2001) that it is possible to gather significant new data on Russian-Chinese military relations. It is important that a consistent effort be made to plumb such available open sources, which on occasion can provide insights useful to the security of the United States and its friends and allies.

INVESTING IN RUSSIA, OVERTAKING RUSSIA

From a strategic perspective the 2003 MAKS show demonstrated an increased Chinese propensity to invest in Russian military firms capable of providing technologies better than that available to the Russian armed forces. But at the same time, it is clear that some Russians also realize that China has an increasing potential to offer competition in many of these same technical areas and to then potentially pose a threat to Russian firms. Several new Russian weapon systems on display benefited from “company funding,” which is becoming a code word for “foreign funding.” In some cases one can reasonable deduce that China is the source for such “company funding.”

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AWACS JAMMER One of the surprises of MAKS 2003 was the TOPOL-E, a radar jammer designed specifically to target the U.S. Navy E-2 HAWKEYE radar aircraft. This program was a beneficiary of “company funding.” It is reasonable to speculate that China was indeed the funding source for this new threat to U.S. forces.
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That China is doing so presents two challenges. First, China is able to acknowledge areas of Russian excellence over its own, and then employ the Russian military-technical complex to build new capabilities much faster than if it relied on indigenous firms. Second, by employing Russian firms to build in some cases new generations of technology, China is also enabling Russia to market new weapons which can pose possible threats to other U.S. interests while providing profits which these same Russian firms can use to remain competitive with U.S. technology.

For Russia the strategic gamble it is taking is that it can develop the next generation of military technology before China can master the current generation, and thus, remain dependent on Russia for cutting edge military technologies. To an increasing degree Russia is also taking this gamble with India. Many Russians are confident they can remain well ahead of China and India. But some Russian sources at MAKS indicate that China in some cases may be able to master new technologies faster than previously expected, and thus, pose a commercial in addition to a possible military threat. This appears to be case in the area of combat aircraft and reconnaissance satellites may join this category. But for now Russia is getting funding and making new system which in many cases its own military forces cannot afford to use.

Looking broadly at the Russian military complex, shows like MAKS illustrate that it has more money than the impoverished era of the early-to-mid 1990s, but problems still remain. Main customers like India, and presumably China, have doubts that Russia can remain a leading military innovator as it was during the Cold War. Some Russian commentators view their military sector as still living off the fat of the previous era. But Russia does retain secrets and surprises. Some that have leaked in recent years are advanced work on laser weapons, “plasma stealth” and on new hypersonic attack missiles.

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More brains than money, a Beriev concept for a 1,000 ton payload wing-in-ground (WIG) effect vehicle is a concept in search of funding. It is an innovative concept which is comparable to the new Boeing PELICAN WIG. A Beriev official said the company welcomes foreign investment to bring this concept to life.
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MANY MORE SUKHOIS

One Sukhoi official who was involved in their China business stated that the PLA already had about 300 Sukhoi fighters. This is a number double open published estimates—about 150. My personal estimate is about 170, based mainly on Russian press reports. If true this new Sukhoi number would constitute a considerable revelation and point to a hitherto publicly unacknowledged threat to Taiwan. However, this individual could also be referring to the total expected number after fulfillment of current contracts. This issue deserves greater U.S. government review.

Of particular interest this individual stated that he expected the PLA to sign a follow-on contract to continue the co-production of Su-27 fighters at Shenyang. He noted that since 2002 the PLA has produced “several dozen” more J-11 (Su-27) fighters, which could mean that co-production totals may now stand closer to 100 fighters—half the 1996 contract for 200. A production rate of 48 a year could support the formation of possibly two new regiments of fighters per year and fulfill the 1996 co-production contract by 2005 or 2006. The possibility of a second co-production contract means that the number of Sukhoi fighters in the PLAAF could grow well beyond 400 within this decade.

J-11 “Indigenization” This Sukhoi official was also willing to talk about the PLA’s desire to “indigenize” the J-11 with substantial new Chinese-made components, like radar, engines and avionics. He said that the PLA was capable of doing all these things but that it would take the PLA “ten years” to realize an indigenized J-11. But when they did so, he expected that the PLA would also sell this fighter. This new J-11 is expected to carry PLA-made weapons like the SD-10 active-guided AAM, precision attack weapons, radar and a new “glass” cockpit of digitized avionics. The main goal of the program is to make a fighter capable of both fighter and attack missions—something the baseline Su-27SK/J-11 cannot do. This individual also confirmed comments by a Sukhoi official at the 2002 Zhuhai show that Shenyang J-11s have a better production finish than those made at the KnAAPO factory in Komsomolsk.

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New Mult-role Su-27SM. A modernized Su-27SK, is the goal of China’s effort to create an indigenized J-11 fighter, but apparently is not using Sukhoi’s ready- made template that was displayed at MAKS.
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Surprisingly, Shenyang is not going to Suhkoi to support this program—a matter which vexes them. Sukhoi used MAKS to promote its new program to upgrade the basic Su-27SK. Unlike the new J-11 version which is still in development, Sukhois upgrade package available now would enable multi-role fighter and attack capabilities, provide upgraded radar and avionics, plus a new digital fly-by-wire system which greatly improves aircraft control.

Su-30MKK2 “AWACS” Sukhoi revealed on the flight line for the first time a modified version of Su-30 aircraft No. 502 which was designated Su-30MKK2. This is very likely the prototype of the Su-30MKK version that will be delivered to the PLA Navy. Suspended between the engines, however, was large pod called the M400. Made by the Kupol Bureau, it is advertised in a placard as a side-looking radar with a range of “not less than 100km,” meaning its range is likely very much more than that. Information will be digitally data-linked to other Su-30s in a strike group. One source said that so equipped, such a Su-30 could “control” up to ten other aircraft in a strike group.

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M400 Side Looking Radar, intended to equip some of the PLAN’s new Su-30MK2 strike fighters, to provide unit level battlespace information to control offensive and defensive missions.
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It is very likely that this new radar will equip Su-30 units now being acquired by the PLAN. This is very significant as finding naval targets is often more important than being able to attack them. While this radar is clearly much less capable than the U.S. AWACS radar aircraft, it does give the PLAN a long range airborne radar cuing platform that will allow PLAN Su-30 units to manage their own multi-axis attacks against surface naval targets. This capability will provide insurance against the possible inability to either acquire dedicated PLAN long-range AWACS platforms, or provide redundancy in the event the later are destroyed.

When asked about the ultimate number of PLAN versions of the Su-30MKK, the Sukhoi official became less exact. He acknowledged that one contract had been signed but would not confirm what a high Sukhoi official stated at the 2002 Zhuhai show that they expected up to 40 to be acquired by the PLAN. Other sources indicate that the PLA may chose to upgrade all of its Su-30MKKs to the Su-30MKK2 level of capability. However, there may also be less certainty around a proposed Su-30MKK3 version, which has been reported to use a new Phazotron bureau ZHUK-M-E 300km range radar and uprated engines. This official indicated that the Su-30MK3 was only an “experimental” program and was not sure that it would succeed.

RUSSIAN VIEWS OF PRC FIGHTER PROGRAMS

More than at previous MAKS, Russian officials were willing to comment on Chinese fighter programs. In general there was praise for growing Chinese technical capabilities, while estimated timelines ranged from 5 to 10 years before the realization of key PLA projects. Both Sukhoi and Salut officials had praise for the Chengdu J-10 program. The Sukhoi official expected the Chinese to produce 1,200 to 1,500 J-10s over the course of its lifetime. He said that he expected it to become the main PLAAF fighter. This opinion compares to widespread doubts in the West just a few years ago that the J-10 remained a viable program. The Salut official was also impressed with J-10 program and noted Israel’s deep involvement in the program. A Sukhoi official also stated that Israel was offering to upgrade systems in PLA Sukhoi fighters. Regarding China’s fifth-generation fighter program, most notably Shenyang’s “XXJ,” the Sukhoi official expressed confidence that China could master all the advanced technologies required for this new fighter, but that it would take 10 years for the PLA to complete the program. This would only put the XXJ about 6 years behind the expected (funding willing) 2006 IOC for the F/A-22A.

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PRC 5th Generation Fighter revealed at the 2002 Zhuhai airshow. Some Russian think the PRC can realize this advanced fighter in 10 years. It is apparently a Shenyang concept.
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PRC AND RUSSIAN FIGHTER ENGINES

One of the main challenges for the PLA traditionally has been the development and production of modern military turbofan engines. Their inability to do so has meant that new domestic fighter designs have been dependent on foreign engine imports—which could make such combat aircraft programs highly vulnerable to shifting politics. For example, the J-10 had to be designed around the 12,500kg thrust Saturn AL-31FN

turbofan in order to produce a successful modern multi-role fighter with sufficient performance.

This year, for the first time in my experience, a very high Saturn official with extensive exposure to the PLA’s advanced aircraft engine sector stated that the new WS-10A, reported to be an impressive 13,200kg thrust turbofan, could be in service in about 5 years. At the Zhuhai 2002 show a photo was released of a J-11 alleged to have been modified to test one WS-10A. The Saturn official said it was “entirely possible” for the PLA to finally succeed in making a 13.2 ton engine, but that they were experiencing troubles in perfecting speci fic engine elements, and offered the fuel pump system as an example. Nevertheless, that the PLA would be this close to producing an advanced turbofan is a remarkable achievement, a sentiment clearly shared by the Saturn offical. Also surprising, this official said that as soon as the WS-10A is perfected that the PLA would likely stop buying Saturn products.

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Saturn AL-31FN engine, a modified AL-31 for the Chengdu J-10 fighter. This engine could be made redundant by the successful development of the WS-10A turbofan, which may be just 5 years away, a remarkable achievement for the PLA.
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Saturn is now developing two advanced versions of the AL-31; the first a 13.2 ton thrust upgrade, to be followed by a 14.6 ton thrust version. As they will be no bigger than the original engine, they will be available to backfit older Russian and foreign fighters. The Saturn official noted that the advanced AL-41 program is essentially on hold waiting for a “demand” in the form of the 5th generation Russian fighter.

RUSSIAN BUNKER BUSTER FOR THE PRC

The “Region” bureau unveiled for the first time a new line of GPS/GLONASS and laser/TV guided bombs. The most significant is the KAB-1500, a 1,500kg (3,400lbs) “bunker buster” that has no U.S. comparison, save for much larger weapons that cannot be carried by fast aircraft. One version of this bomb is filled with fuel-air explosive (FAE), a particularly powerful explosive that destroys by generating fantastic heat and pressure. Another version is equipped to penetrate concrete. While this bomb has been in Russian service for some time, this year was its MAKS debut.

In addition, Region displayed the KAB-500S-E, a 560kg GPS/GLONASS guided bomb. This guidance allows precision targeting—5-10m accuracy—in all weather. Also on display for the first time was the LGB-250, a 300kg laser-guided bomb with a swivel seeker, which compensates for the seeker not being able to pick up guidance cues from greater angles. Such bombs can be cued either by aircraft or ground troop laser designators, which confer a far greater ability for the aircraft to perform close air support missions.

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New Bombs by Region, a 1,500kg bunker buster (top) displayed for the first time has been purchased by the PRC, and will enable PLA Su-30s to attack Taiwan’s underground air tunnels. A new laser guided bomb (bottom) has likely been funded by the PRC.
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While the U.S. has had both types of bombs for over a decade it is significant that Russia has finally made these bombs. It is not clear that Russia has the resources or requirement for these weapons. The real reason they have appeared likely has more to do with foreign demand, and very likely, foreign funding. One source noted that the larger KAB-1500 has been sold to both India and China and were delivered in 2002, and that the LGB-250 was “company funded,” the code-word for foreign funding. The funding source for the LGB-250 could either be China or India, as both have the need to be able to conduct precision close air support. However, two years ago China revealed a new laser guided bomb in mock-up form which uses a seeker similar in shape to that on the LGB-250, indicating a greater probability that China is the funding source for this new Region laser-guided bomb.

SATELLITE COOPERATION

NPO Machinostroyenia holds an important place in the Russian aerospace complex. It is one of the only Russian companies, which during the Soviet era, managed to integrate tactical missile, strategic missile and space systems into complete combat systems. Today it sells the YAKHONT 300km+ supersonic tactical missile, cued by its KORNET-E radar satellite and associated electro/optical satellite, which in turn can be launched by STRELA, a space-launch vehicle based on the RS-18 ICBM that also designed by NPO Mashinorstroyenia. While NPO Machinostroyenia has its competitors in all these areas within the Russian military complex, it is also one of the more successful in using foreign sales to sustain product development.

At the 2002 Zhuhai Airshow a Chinese official involved in the PLA’s satellite program stated that there had been cooperation with NPO Mashinostroyenia since at least 1997. When offered this statement at MAKS, a NPO Mash official first blanched, but was then quite willing to acknowledge cooperation with China’s “civilian” Earth observation satellite program, which it noted was different from its “military” program, with which it does not cooperate. One NPO Mash official noted that they were soon to sign a contract for cooperation toward China’s first radar satellite. NPO Mash said its first KONDOR-E, a one-meter capable satellite, should be launched in 2004. Recent Chinese statements indicate they expect their first radar satellite to be launched in 2006.

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NPO Mashinostroyenia Kondor-E satellite system for the PRC. According to NPO Mash officials the new PRC earth observation satellites will benefit from both the Kondor-E radar satellite (top) and the Kondor-E electro/optical satellite (bottom).
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Of some interest, NPO Mash says that China will use the L-Band, which is not capable of less than one-meter resolution, whereas their satellite will use the more capable S-Band. However, it can safely speculate that China will indeed get the S-Band radar as well. There is some evidence that the Chinese have also conducted their own research and may have built their own S-Band phased array radar, but it is not known if it is configured for satellites.

For several years NPO Mash has also marketed an electro/optical satellite with a one-meter resolution. Significantly, NPO Mash stated that in the near future it expected a contract to work with China on new electro/optical satellites as well. Given that the Chinese were willing to acknowledge early cooperation with radar satellites, it cannot be discounted that NPO Mash-China cooperation is ongoing regarding future PLA electro/optical satellites.

ANTI-SHIP MISSILES, NAVY NEWS

Three Russian companies were marketing supersonic anti-ship missiles, two of which have been sold to the PRC. The only one that apparently has not been sold is the NPO Mashinostroyenia YAKHONT, which was displayed for the first time in a mock-up of its air-launched YAKHONT-M version. YAKHONT is advertised with a M 2.7 speed and a range of 300km, while it is sure that the range can be increased if needed. The air-launched version was shown being carried by a Su-30 and a Tu-95 bomber. A NPO Mash video showed the YAKHONT being launched from land, ship and underwater platforms. An official said the air launched version would be tested in 2004.

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Air-launched YAKHONT, due to be tested in 2004. NPO Mash denies reports it will arm the new PLA Navy destroyers now being built in Russia.
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One surprise of the show was that NPO Mash’s main foreign partner with the YAKHONT, the Indian-Russian venture BRAHMOS, was not at the show. BRAHMOS is an almost exact replica of YAKHONT that is being produced in India and they had a popular display at the 2001 MAKS. It is due to begin production in 2004. From the demeanor of one NPO Mash official one could sense that perhaps they are feeling the heat from Indian competition, as they are also marketing BRAHMOS for foreign sales. At the 2002 Zhuhai show one source noted that he expected China to buy YAKHONT, and there have been Russian press reports that it will arm two new SOVREMENNIY destroyers being built for the PLA Navy. However, NPO Mash officials denied that YAKHONT would be sold to the PLA.

NPO Mashinostroyenia was less willing to speak about its next generation missiles. In 1997 it revealed its “ALPHA” concept which featured a more flexible lower fuselage air intake, but officials say that program has ended. While a NPO Mash official acknowledged that they did have advanced missile programs he would not divulge details. NPO Mash is known to have a hypersonic missile program that may utilize advanced “Plasma Stealth” technology, which uses an ionized gas cloud in the radome to absorb radar signals. The Russian Gromov Research Institute continues with hypersonic research programs

Recent press reports indicate that the new SOVREMENNIYs will be instead armed with a new 200km range version of the Raduga MOSKIT. So far the longest range version of this M 2.5-M 3 speed missile is 120km. A Raduga official acknowledged that the new version existed but that it was a “company funded” initiative and would not comment on sales to China. In addition, he would not comment on whether the new higher range was achieved by having a smaller warhead or a larger engine. The MOSKIT is very deadly because it combines a large warhead with such high speed as to devastate most smaller ships and also cause significant damage to larger ships. While the contract to build the SOVREMENNIY destroyers has been a matter of embarrassing controversy in Russia since early 2002, press report just before MAKS indicate that those issues have been settled and that construction will proceed.

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Anti-ship missiles, a new version of the Raduga MOSKIT (top) may now arm the next two SOVREMENNIY destroyers for the PLAN, and the Novator CLUB-S (bottom) will arm the PLAN’s eight new KILO
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The Novator bureau was also marketing its CLUB-S and CLUB-N anti-ship missiles. While usually very secretive, a Novator official acknowledged that China would be getting the Club-S on its eight new KILO class conventional submarines—a big statement for them. Information gathered at the show indicates that construction for these submarines has been well underway for the last year. The CLUB-S was shown in a new video which illustrated its ballistic missile second stage, which heads toward the target at 1,000m/s during the terminal phase of its attack.

NO AWACS, NEW AWACS

Conspicuously absent from this year’s MAKS was the Ilyushin bureau, which makes the Il-76 heavy transport aircraft, which the PLA has purchased, the IL-78M refueling aircraft which the PLA is reported to be purchasing, and the airframe for the Beriev A-50E AWACS, which the PLA is also reported to be purchasing. An official from the Beriev company, however, denied that the A-50E was going to China. This statement was in contrast to one made by the A-50 AWACS radar maker at the 2001 MAKS show, who was certain that the A-50E was going to China.

Of some significance, however, were three new unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) unveiled in model form by Sukhoi. Two of these models represented strategic UAVs similar in size to the U.S. Northrup-Grumman Global Hawk, and they had designed endurances of “several dozen hours.” These two larger UAVs carried two types of radar: one with a large tri-angular phased array radar mounted atop the fuselage; and another with an apparent synthetic aperture radar in a dome below the fuselage. A third smaller UAV was turboprop powered and was equipped with electro/optical sensors in a manner similar to the U.S. PREDATOR UAV. All three UAVs had nose-mounted satellite communication antennae, similar in style to U.S. UAVs.

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Three new UAVs by Sukhoi, ZOND-1 is a strategic UAVs, with an AWACS phased-array radar (top); ZOND-2 has a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) equipped version (bottom right). ZOND-3 has IR sensors. While Sukhoi did not reveal much, there is a possibility this program is foreign funded, perhaps from China.
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A Sukhoi official said the program was not government funded but that there was both foreign and domestic interest in these programs. But it should be stressed that the Russians were saying very little about these new UAVs. There could be a foreign funder, or there is also a possibility that the UAV models were meant to attract foreign interest rather than reflect it. But if one presumes that China is the funder, that would indicate a major leap in capability for the PLA. It would indicate that the PLA may have chosen to compliment or even forgo manned AWACS platforms with newer and more flexible unmanned AWACS platforms. This program deserves close attention.

DEDICATED HAWKEYE JAMMER

One surprise of the show was the TOPOL-E, a new radar jamming device made by the Signal Stavropol Radioplant. This system apparently was designed and made within the last year for sole purpose of jamming radar from U.S. Navy E-2 HAWKEYE AWACS aircraft. It is designed to intercept, locate and jam radar of the AN/APS-125, 138, 139 and 145 systems. Its maximum jamming range is 250km and can operate continuously for 24 hours. Company officials were adamant, however, that this system could not jam radar from larger E-3 AWACS or newer E-8 JSTARS radar aircraft, but that it could jam future phased array versions of the HAWKEYE radar. Company officials said that this program was not funded by the Russian government, but by “company funds.” This again, has all the marks of a China-funded enterprise, as who but the PLA has a rapid requirement to be able to jam the radar of E-2 aircraft?

AEROSTAT RADAR FOR THE PRC

In 2002 press reports indicated that Russia was selling the PLA a new balloon-mounted radar system, or “Aerostat,” that would be deployed on the Taiwan Strait. The RosAero Systems company had on display a large model of its radar carrying aerostat. A company official would not say that the aerostat had been “sold” to China, but that negotiations were underway and that much technical information has been passed to China.

NEW LASER COUNTERMEASURE DEVICE

While the device has been in existence for several years, for the first time at MAKS the Nudelman Precision Engineering Bureau displayed its PAPV “portable automatic sighting device.” Its purpose is to blind snipers and other electro/optical devices that specifically use optical systems. It combines a laser which can perform laser radar-like functions to find and home in on a target optical device. Then the laser produces a much more powerful impulse which an official said can harm the sniper. “You really want to hurt him” said the official. Nudelman officials professed to be unaware of a new Chinese laser device on the T-98 tank which may be able to perform the same kind of function.

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Nudelman laser based counter-sniper device indicates that this bureau may have more sophisticated laser weapons as well.
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IMPLICATIONS FOR TAIWAN SECURITY

It is becoming increasingly clear that the PLA may be making real progress in enlisting Russia to develop new and dangerous capabilities that the PLA intends to use against Taiwan. The timeline for some new programs like the TOPOL-E “Hawkeye jammer” may indicate that the PLA may be placing a high premium on the very rapid development of these new systems. One can only conclude from information gathered at the 2003 MAKS show that the security outlook for Taiwan in increasingly grim.

At one level the PLA is making a concerted effort to combine larger numbers of attack platforms with new ISR capabilities. This was a lesson repeated many times by the successful U.S. employment of high technology precision targeting capabilities during multiple conflicts over the last decade. The PLA is now taking to heart this requirement for its forces as it prepares for a Taiwan campaign. It is not enough just to purchase large numbers of 4th generation fighters; the PLA is also acquiring the long-range targeting systems and new precision weapons to fully exploit its new air combat platforms. This is exemplified by the equipping of the Su-30MK2 with a new side-looking radar pod to enable air battle control at the unit level.

There is continued progress in NPO Mashinostroyenia’s programs with China to transfer both radar and electro/optical satellite technologies. That NPO Mash specializes in small satellite buses is also significant because they are easier to launch and thus to replenish in the event of U.S. attack.

Should Sukhoi’s new strategic UAVs also turn out to be a China-funded program that hold great significance as well. It would indicate that China is moving beyond manned AWACS platforms, which allow for greater persistence/endurance and allows the PLA to take greater peacetime chances by moving closer to target areas than might be prudent with manned aircraft. The development of a large SAR-equipped UAV also indicates a possible ground-mapping and targeting function similar to the U.S. JSTARS. Such UAVs, while not cheap, are less expensive than manned radar platforms, and thus, may allow the PLA to acquire more UAVs.

Some new Russian systems even take on a strategic significance for the PLA. For example, the KAB-1500 confers the potential to attack Taiwan’s Hualien aircraft tunnels with a massive non-nuclear penetrating bomb that can then be followed by an equally large FAE bomb to wreak havoc on the aircraft within. In fact, this bomb forces Taiwan to either greatly increase air defenses over Hualien to include bomb intercepting systems, or it must consider altering its defensive strategy which now depends heavily on hiding enough fighters in Hualien to survive an initial surprise PLA onslaught.

The LGB-250 development program may have given China a far better ability to conduct close-air support. The PLA is apparently placing greater stress on precision targeting capabilities in order to limit collateral damage to Taiwanese civilians in the event of a Taiwan conflict. The LGB-250 can be directed very precisely by ground troop laser designators. In such an instance the PLA could equip many older Q-5 attack fighters with just one bomb and extra fuel in order to provide “artillery” support in the same way as does the U.S.

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Su-30MKK model in PLAAF colors is shown armed with the KAB-1500 bunker-buster bomb. This weapon poses a grave new challenge to Taiwan’s air defense strategy, requiring that both Taipei and Washington devise countermeasures.
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The MAKS show also provided additional confirmation of the growing PLA naval threat to Taiwan. That the PLAN is acquiring two supersonic capable Russian anti-ship missiles, in addition to what they may be developing on their own, results in greater urgency that Taiwan somehow acquire countermeasures. Taiwan must develop and/or purchase anti-missile systems for ship defense as it also moves ahead with its own programs to acquire supersonic missiles that can attack PLAN ships.

IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY

Information gathered at MAKS indicates that the U.S. will face an even greater challenge in both defending its own forces from increasingly capable PLA systems, and in providing for Taiwan’s security. The PLA is very likely placing a high priority on acquiring new Russian systems which can especially target and attack U.S. naval forces.

New naval threats include an apparent goal to provide new naval attack Su-30MK2 fighters with multiple ISR assets to ensure the targeting of U.S. ships. The M400 locating radar, new radar satellites and possible new radar equipped strategic UAVs may all be combined with new ground-based long-range radar systems to provide an overlapping ISR picture for PLA attack platforms. It can then be expected that a common naval battle zone picture can then be used to coordinate strikes by Su-30s, multi-role J-11s, J-10s, submarines and surface ships. Land-based ballistic and cruise missiles may also be used in such naval battles.

The U.S. is also going to face greater pressure to augment its airpower assets in Asia. A PLAAF with more than 300 Su-27/30 class fighters plus hundreds of J-10 fighters, with modern ISR and weapons, means the PLAAF will no longer be a third-world airforce. The advent of modern combat jet engines also means that the PLA will be increasingly able to develop new indigenous fighters such as the “XXJ” program. China can be expected to sell what it makes, increasing threats in other areas critical to U.S. interests.

Given Washington’s global commitments, it may no longer be sufficient to purchase 300 or less F/A-22 fighters. To sustain deterrence the U.S. will require fighter platforms that are significantly superior to current or anticipated Russian or PLA fighters. It is also necessary to accelerate the introduction of advanced versions of the F/A-18E/F in order to give U.S. carrier battle groups a margin of superiority. In addition the Navy should ensure that its version of the F-35 should also be superior to anticipated threats. Just as important the U.S. should continue to develop and field superior aircraft weapons and invest in truly effective combat UAVs which can defeat or avoid expected PLA aerial threats.

Finally, the 2003 MAKS shows that the Russia-China military technical nexus is alive and growing. Despite the risks to each in this relationship, both sides are also managing to derive tangible benefits. China is getting new weapon systems faster plus a great deal of new military technology, some of which it is also mastering. Russia is getting cash to keep alive its military-technical sector and in some cases, is able to remain competitive in the global arms market. For China there remains the risk of greater dependence on new Russian technology. For Russia, there is an increasing chance that China will catch up, and threaten Russian military export markets. In addition, Russia is tied to a market which could evaporate should China’s communist system collapse. But the chances for such an event are unknown. In the meantime, MAKS 2003 has provided useful information which confirms that the Russia-China alliance is producing significant new threats to Taiwan and to American security interests in Asia.

Prepared For The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,

by Richard D. Fisher, Jr, Center for Security Policy

(中央社記者陳正杰華盛頓二十八日專電)中國國防部長曹剛川今天到五角大廈與美國國防部長倫斯斐會談時，兩名隨行官員未遵守雙方約定，在進入倫斯斐辦公室之後拿起攝影器材就拍，當場遭美方下逐客令。

曹剛川一行十餘人上午十一時三十分抵達五角大廈，倫斯斐在面向波多馬克河的東側正門迎接，兩位主角簡短握手問候，隨即步上站有兩排禮兵的台階，進入大廈內展開會談。

不到幾分鐘，兩名身著綠色人民解放軍軍服的中方隨行官員拎著公事包和照相機、攝錄影機回到正門的台階下，跟一名倫斯斐助理及一名五角大廈負責新聞事務的官員理論。

中國駐美大使館參贊孫偉德見狀試圖打圓場，但美方官員姿態強硬，孫偉德便先行離開，留下兩名解放軍軍官在原地，直到中午過後，這兩人才被請進室內。